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  1. #1
    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    More than any other, this is the question I'll be looking at in deciding who I want the Rams to draft:

    How big is the dropoff from QBs that will be availalbe in Round 1 (Top 10 picks) vs. Round 2 (Picks 33-43)?

    If you look at this issue historically, it really does not answer the question. In some years, the best QBs clearly high first rounders. In others, the gap between first rounders and second rounders is not so great.

    Right now, the pool appears to be as follows:

    Early First Round Picks
    Jake Locker
    Jimmy Clausen
    Sam Bradford

    Potential Second Round Picks
    Dan LeFevour
    Tony Pike
    Tim Hiller
    Daryll Clark
    Jevan Snead

    The "Wild Cards"
    Colt McCoy
    Tim Tebow

    I have McCoy and Tebow listed as "wild cards" because it is difficult to project where they will be selected. McCoy could go in the first round based on his college resume, but could drop below the second based on his measurables. Tebow could go in the first round to a team that values his "intangibles," or could be drafted to play a position other than QB.

    Thus, the question is, how big is the dropoff from Locker/Clausen/Bradford to LeFevour/Pike/Hiller/Snead (and possibly McCoy/Clausen)?

    The answer: Hell if I know.

    I do know this...

    IF the Rams think that the dropoff is minimal, then they should SERIOUSLY consider taking Suh or G.McCoy in Round 1, and also give some thought to C.J. Spiller, Dez Bryant and maybe Carlos Dunlap (I'm not on board with taking a safety in Round 1).

    On the other hand, if the Rams truly belive that there is a big gap between the first rounders and the rest, they really should bite the bullet and take a QB in the first.


  2. #2
    39thebeast's Avatar
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    Re: For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    Another question, do we think Suh or possibly McCoy is so elite that we just cant possibly pass up on those guys. we will just take some more time to develop a second rounder.

    Also in that scenario we have already stockpiled picks and who knows maybe the third guy between Locker, Claussen, and Bradford drop to the late teens or early 20s like a Brady Quinn, IMO that would be the best case scenario. If that doesn't happen I really like Suh I think he could be a dominant player and I would take a guy like Pike or Colt McCoy.

  3. #3
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    Re: For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    I don't see a qb worth taking in the top 3, and the gap is not very large. You should also put Canfield in the potential list he is rising pretty fast.

  4. #4
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    Re: For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    If somehow, Sam Bradford falls to us in the second round, I would not hesitate at all to grab him. But we don't know if that'll happen.


    Back to the subject.

    I agree that Devaney and his guys better start scouting how big or how small that drop-off is. It's crucial. But, I think they also need to assess the drop-off in leadership, if there is any. We need a guy that can come in here, and take charge of this franchise, inspire the team, give hope to all the fans, and give hope to the Rams organization. He will also need that attitude, that toughness, to be the new face of this franchise.


    We also need to consider this question.

    Would a guy like Suh and McCoy be more impactful, or a guy like Clausen or Locker?


  5. #5
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    Re: For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    You could also look at it the opposite way. Is the gap between Suh and McCoy that much bigger between players we can get in the second round? If you ask me, a scenario in which we end up with Locker and Marvin Austin/Arthur Jones is much better than ending up with Suh or McCoy and one of the second round QBs you mentioned. I believe the gap between QBs in the first and second is much bigger than that of DTs.

    Not to mention, we could very easily address the DT position through free agency compared to QB. If a CBA is reached and there is a capped year, we could realistically go after Barry Cofield (he's only 25, and is not used much anymore because they got both Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard this past off season) or Fred Robbins who were with Spags in New York. We would be very hard pressed to find a potential franchise QB on the free agent market. The last one to enter the market was Drew Brees four years ago, and that was only because there were concerns surrounding his shoulder and San Diego had Philip Rivers waiting in the wings.

    I'm very opposed to waiting another year to get a QB, but if I had to argue in favour of it I would use the potential emergence of a rookie cap as my reason. If we wait and draft one next year, at least we will do so with minimal risk (in terms of financial investment) as opposed to this year. However, I've read how everyone wants to draft Suh/McCoy and just wait another year. Well, if we can't acquire a meaningful, young QB like Kolb, all we are doing is postponing the inevitable, which in turn makes rebuilding tougher and longer because there will obviously be a growing and developing period for our young QB. That's why I believe going QB is the only right way to go this season -- Devaney has stressed himself that we're in a league where a turn around should happen within a couple of years or he'll be out of work. By putting off finding a QB of the future, he'll be on the fast track to unemployment. We NEED to get one in this draft, and if it were up to me it would come with our first round pick.
    Last edited by Bald_81; -11-23-2009 at 11:40 PM.

  6. #6
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    Re: For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    I agree with Bald. It's far easier to address the DT position in free agency. Remember, supposedly Carriker is a stud that we can't do without. Even the idea of cutting him is considered unthinkable. There are lots of DTs who have actually played at a pretty high level who will be in the free agency market.

    As they said last year with Stafford, if you think he's your franchise QB of the future, you take him in round 1. If he's a project, you take him later. How many QBs taken in round 2 have started in their rookie year?

    From 2003-2007 let's look at the QBs taken after round 1.

    Kellen Clemons
    Tavaris Jackson
    Kevin Kolb
    Drew Stanton
    John Beck
    Dave Ragone
    Chris Simms
    David Greene
    Seneka Wallace
    Matt Schaub
    Luke McCown
    Charlie Fry
    Andrew Walter
    Kyle Orton
    Ch Whitehurst
    Trent Edwards
    Brodie Croyle
    Isiah Stanback
    Sefan LeFlors

    For 5 years those are the 2,3,4th round QBs. How many would you want as your starter right now or have had starting experience (w/out injuries forcing them into the starting lineup)? Schaub is probably the only one I'd consider a very good franchise QB going forward.

    Compare that with the 1st round picks. 1st round picks aren't a guarantee but the odds of success are obviously better because they were rated significantly better.

    6th and 7th rounders during that period have had just as much success as 2nd-5th rounders.
    Last edited by RebelYell; -11-24-2009 at 12:38 AM.

  7. #7
    39thebeast's Avatar
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    Re: For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bald_81 View Post
    You could also look at it the opposite way. Is the gap between Suh and McCoy that much bigger between players we can get in the second round? If you ask me, a scenario in which we end up with Locker and Marvin Austin/Arthur Jones is much better than ending up with Suh or McCoy and one of the second round QBs you mentioned. I believe the gap between QBs in the first and second is much bigger than that of DTs.

    Not to mention, we could very easily address the DT position through free agency compared to QB. If a CBA is reached and there is a capped year, we could realistically go after Barry Cofield (he's only 25, and is not used much anymore because they got both Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard this past off season) or Fred Robbins who were with Spags in New York. We would be very hard pressed to find a potential franchise QB on the free agent market. The last one to enter the market was Drew Brees four years ago, and that was only because there were concerns surrounding his shoulder and San Diego had Philip Rivers waiting in the wings.

    I'm very opposed to waiting another year to get a QB, but if I had to argue in favour of it I would use the potential emergence of a rookie cap as my reason. If we wait and draft one next year, at least we will do so with minimal risk (in terms of financial investment) as opposed to this year. However, I've read how everyone wants to draft Suh/McCoy and just wait another year. Well, if we can't acquire a meaningful, young QB like Kolb, all we are doing is postponing the inevitable, which in turn makes rebuilding tougher and longer because there will obviously be a growing and developing period for our young QB. That's why I believe going QB is the only right way to go this season -- Devaney has stressed himself that we're in a league where a turn around should happen within a couple of years or he'll be out of work. By putting off finding a QB of the future, he'll be on the fast track to unemployment. We NEED to get one in this draft, and if it were up to me it would come with our first round pick.
    Correct you make some really good points especially with the comparison with the DT dropoff to the QB drop off. Depending on the juniors that come out the DT draft could be really deep. The D-line IMO is the strength of this draft so we could easily find first round talent at DT or DE at the top of the second round IMO. With Bulger going down, it just ups the chance we go after a Franchise QB IMO.

  8. #8
    GROUND DOG 39's Avatar
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    Re: For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    Ideally if we are picking in the top 3 you go QB first, if not then BPA after trading down.
    Which is never a given. The Rams have myriad problems but still Im expecting bigger, better athletes in the front seven on D. Thats the area Spags will go first either in Free Agency or the draft, unless they fall in love with one of the QB's???
    GO RAMS

  9. #9
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    Re: For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bald_81 View Post
    You could also look at it the opposite way. Is the gap between Suh and McCoy that much bigger between players we can get in the second round? If you ask me, a scenario in which we end up with Locker and Marvin Austin/Arthur Jones is much better than ending up with Suh or McCoy and one of the second round QBs you mentioned. I believe the gap between QBs in the first and second is much bigger than that of DTs.

    I think Arthur Jones' stock is going to rise steadily throughout the off season, and he'll easily be picked up in the first round. At the very worst, he has to get by Indy, which will have a late round-one pick and who desperately needs help in the middle of the line.

  10. #10
    mtah6245 is offline Registered User
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    Re: For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    Quote Originally Posted by GROUND DOG 39 View Post
    Ideally if we are picking in the top 3 you go QB first, if not then BPA after trading down.
    Which is never a given. The Rams have myriad problems but still Im expecting bigger, better athletes in the front seven on D. Thats the area Spags will go first either in Free Agency or the draft, unless they fall in love with one of the QB's???
    GO RAMS
    No NFL team owner or GM is going to want to trade up into one of the top five spots for the draft so the BPA is the only way the Rams can possibly go. The 2010 draft is deep with QB talent and the choice should be a non QB BPA with the first pick and consider a QB maybe in the 2nd or 3rd round.

  11. #11
    Ramblin` Ram's Avatar
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    Re: For me, the draft comes down to this question.

    whilst i think Suh (along with Berry) is the best prospect in the draft...if Spags is gonna continue to use a D-line rotation,id rather us pass on him (and Gerald McCoy) and go for an every down prospect with our high 1st round pick.
    outside of a pre-injury Bradford i think every QB prospect would be a reach at the spot we likely to be picking but sometimes you gotta reach for the players that can help you most...i know many of the top teams arent afraid to reach for a player now and again if he fits what they need and neither should we if we ever wanna become one again.

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