Mel Kiper's First 2013 Mock Draft

[Nick]

16
Kenny Vaccaro
St. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Texas
AGE: 21
HT: 6-1
WT: 218
POS: S

Analysis: The Rams have used the draft and free agency to strengthen the defense almost everywhere over the past couple of years. They made big strides at corner last offseason with the additions of Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins, and the pass rush is in place with the emerging Robert Quinn and steady Chris Long. Getting the best safety in the draft, a player who can both cover and step up against the run, will be one of those finishing touches.

22
D.J. Fluker *
St. Louis Rams (from WAS) (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 335
POS: OT

Analysis: You can't be below average at tackle in the NFC West, dealing with San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle six times a season, and while the Rams stabilized a little bit in 2012 with Barry Richardson and Rodger Saffold bookending the offensive line, they should use one of their first-round picks to look for an upgrade. Fluker profiles as a right tackle, but he should be a very good one at the NFL level. He can simply overwhelm with size and power as a run-blocker, and could be very good if his ability to deal with speed rushers improves.

Some general notes on the mock...

-Kiper has Joeckel going first overall, which is certainly possible based on BPA evaluations.

-Kiper projects Chance Warmack going to Arizona @ 7 and Eric Fisher going to San Diego @ 11.

-Kiper projects Tyler Eifert going to Chicago @ 20.

-Kiper projects Montee Ball going to Cincinnati @ 21.

-Vaccaro is the only safety Kiper projects in the first round mock.

-Kiper projects Cordarrelle Patterson to go @ 12 to Miami, Terrance Williams to go @ 23 to Minnesota, and Keenan Allen to go @ 27 to Houston. He also projects Zach Ertz @ 26 to Green Bay.

[AvengerRam]

Under those circumstances, I'd think long and hard about a WR at #22, but I'd ultimately be fine with those picks. If those are the only WRs gone in the first round, the Rams would probably have a chance at Hopkins, Hunter, Austin or Woods in Round 2.

[sosa39rams]

Seems insane to me. Montee Ball at 21? Really? I think draftniks purposely release ridiculous mocks earlier in the year so they have something to change on the next one..

Vaccaro, maybe. But at 16? That'd be a HUGE reach. Fluker at 22 is a reach aswell. I guess I may be looking at it in the BPA manner, but cmon.

[thillis]

Seems insane to me. Montee Ball at 21? Really? I think draftniks purposely release ridiculous mocks earlier in the year so they have something to change on the next one..

Vaccaro, maybe. But at 16? That'd be a HUGE reach. Fluker at 22 is a reach aswell. I guess I may be looking at it in the BPA manner, but cmon.

Both could happen. Fluker may rise with Lewan and Matthews going back to school. Vaccaro at 16 wouldn't be crazy, Earl Thomas went 14.

[sosa39rams]

Both could happen. Fluker may rise with Lewan and Matthews going back to school. Vaccaro at 16 wouldn't be crazy, Earl Thomas went 14.

I DO think Fluker will go around our pick, but I think it's a BIG reach for whoever bites the bait. Vaccaro is arguably the best S of the class, but he is not a "elite" prospect like Earl Thomas or Eric Berry. Thomas slid to 14, Vaccaro talent wise isn't a top 25 player in this class.

Both picks are reaches in my opinion. It can happen, but I dont think Fisher gets sucked into that hole.

[mde8352gorams]

Interesting. I am surprised about lack of a play maker in round 1 like Eifert. But, its early.

Go Rams!

[HUbison]

-Kiper projects Chance Warmack going to Arizona @ 7

Wow! That would be the highest a Guard has gone since the Saints took Jim Dombrowski at 6.....27 years ago!

[CanadaRam]

No way Warmack goes that high, last year David DeCastro was suppose to the best guard to come out in years and he lasted till the 20's. I'd be dollars to donuts (Canadian Donuts from Tim Hortons) that he'll be there at 16, and if he is we gotta take him.

[Nick]

I DO think Fluker will go around our pick, but I think it's a BIG reach for whoever bites the bait. Vaccaro is arguably the best S of the class, but he is not a "elite" prospect like Earl Thomas or Eric Berry. Thomas slid to 14, Vaccaro talent wise isn't a top 25 player in this class.

Both picks are reaches in my opinion. It can happen, but I dont think Fisher gets sucked into that hole.

I don't recall Earl Thomas being considered an "elite" safety prospect, but that's beside the point. Generally you don't see "elite" prospects available in the bottom part of the Top 20 picks.

Sean Taylor, LaRon Landry, and Eric Berry were all Top Ten picks as safeties. There have been other safeties drafted in the Top Ten whom I'm not sure would qualify as "elite" as well, but regardless, elite safeties are going to come off the board quickly rather than linger.

Meanwhile, guys like Earl Thomas, Michael Griffin, and Reggie Nelson, whom IIRC were not viewed as elite-caliber safeties, still came off the board in the middle of the first round. If you're holding out for an elite safety @ 16, you're going to be waiting a while for the stars to align and someone to drop or for a prospect to unexpectedly develop into that caliber of player.

The opinions on Vaccaro are all over the place. Some people have him in the first round, some don't see him coming off the board until the second. For some context, Kiper has Vaccaro ranked 21st on his big board. Scouts Inc has him ranked 16th. In NFLDC's December 17th mock, Vaccaro came off the board @ 19 to Dallas.

So while you may think he's a reach there, there are a couple of well respected people who seem to disagree. Either way, qualifying a guy as a reach at this point in the process should be taken with a big grain of salt, because of how the offseason is going to shake things up.

[BarronWade]

Value Shmalue I love the Vaccaro pick because the guy has plenty of quality experience starting and he is a TRUE free safety one that can be our last line a defense I really like the idea of him playing centerfield and Mickell playing box safety at the line

I really question the Monte ball pick not because of value or anything like that its because the team just paid for the lawfirm and he had a good run toward the end of the season I think for them a true burner might be a better option

[Rambos]

Two things I have notice in mocks since the championship game. Warmack stock has risen, I'm seeing him now in the top ten in some mocks and Manti Te'o stock has dropped. Not saying that won't change in the next 90 days.

[Vinnie25]

Funny how a couple weeks ago I was hoping the Rams might be able to snag Fluker with their 2nd round pick.... thanks to Lewan and Matthews returning to school it doesn't look like that's going to happen. DAMN YOU LEWAN AND MATTHEWS!!!

[TekeRam]

Seems insane to me. Montee Ball at 21? Really? I think draftniks purposely release ridiculous mocks earlier in the year so they have something to change on the next one..

Vaccaro, maybe. But at 16? That'd be a HUGE reach. Fluker at 22 is a reach aswell. I guess I may be looking at it in the BPA manner, but cmon.

Only a reach if they don't work out. Tom Brady would have been a "reach" in the 5th round... just sayin.

I'm anti-receiver in the first round, so I'm very good with grabing an Alabama offensive lineman and a safety. I have to do more in depth study of them though.

[GolfnRAMFAN]

I agree with Mel that Warmack will not be available by the 16th pick. He has played too well in the later parts of the season and interior linemen rarely have events like the combine hurt their stock unless they go post 8 reps on the bench.

I also think that saying a position like guard is not as valuable so no guard will ever get picked in the top 10 is a theory of the past. The new wage scale is the reason for this change. It allows a guard being picked 8th to be paid like a very good guard where as in the past, they would be paid like a premier LT.

Having said all this, I wouldn't be too overly surprised if the Rams did draft Warmack, but a few slots higher and maybe a 3rd or 4th lighter.

[ZiaRam]

I don't recall Earl Thomas being considered an "elite" safety prospect, but that's beside the point. Generally you don't see "elite" prospects available in the bottom part of the Top 20 picks.

Sean Taylor, LaRon Landry, and Eric Berry were all Top Ten picks as safeties. There have been other safeties drafted in the Top Ten whom I'm not sure would qualify as "elite" as well, but regardless, elite safeties are going to come off the board quickly rather than linger.

Meanwhile, guys like Earl Thomas, Michael Griffin, and Reggie Nelson, whom IIRC were not viewed as elite-caliber safeties, still came off the board in the middle of the first round. If you're holding out for an elite safety @ 16, you're going to be waiting a while for the stars to align and someone to drop or for a prospect to unexpectedly develop into that caliber of player.

The opinions on Vaccaro are all over the place. Some people have him in the first round, some don't see him coming off the board until the second. For some context, Kiper has Vaccaro ranked 21st on his big board. Scouts Inc has him ranked 16th. In NFLDC's December 17th mock, Vaccaro came off the board @ 19 to Dallas.

So while you may think he's a reach there, there are a couple of well respected people who seem to disagree. Either way, qualifying a guy as a reach at this point in the process should be taken with a big grain of salt, because of how the offseason is going to shake things up.

Honestly I personally don't like us taking Vacarro in the first round. I really can't see him as developing into a top 5 FS by watching his tape. I would hands down absolutely rather have Elam or Rambo TBH. These guys who do mock drafts are yahoos with some type off dis degree amywAys and its the same with you or me coming out with a mock draft