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Most likely to drop below 20? above
As we go through the interactive draft, I realized we are biased toward the big names...the ones that have gotten the most press. Every year one or two players drop who got lots of pub and a couple jump up. For example last year
Lee Evans at 13, and JP Losman at 22 were the big early surprises going up. Going down it was Vince Wilfolk at 21, Stephen Jackson 23. and probably Derrick Stait 77 that went lower than expected. The downward are players at big schools with lots of visibility that get over-hyped, the upwards are players coming off injury (Evans) or playing positions of shortage and need (Losman).
Who is the most likely to drop this year from what is projected, and who do you think we most likely go up. My pick for drop is Dan Cody of Oklahoma. I think he is overhyped being at Okie, he has past problems, is a bit of a tweener, and there are other speed rushers available faster than him, and other 3-4 DE's better (e.g. Spears). On the upward side, I think either Mark Clayton at WR or Channing Crowder maybe show up higher than expected.
Re: Most likely to drop below 20? above
Moving up - Mike Williams - After sitting out an entire season he should have fallen into the mid teens at best. But he won't go past Minnesota at #7.
Barrett Ruud - Without getting much attention, Ruud has established himself as the safest shot at ILB in this draft. He was considered a mid to late 2nd rounder, but could be a late 1st come April 23rd.
Going down - Erasmus James - During the season, he appeared to be the best DE without question. He now is looking like he could be as low as 6th among DEs."Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod
Right on Ruud
You're right on Ruud I should replace Channing with Ruud. LB's will be picked earlier than value due to thinness of players at that position, but it will probably be Ruud who moves up rather than Channing - in a strong LB year he might be a late 2nd and even early 3rd on some team's books, but this year he will be early 2nd and may even sneak into the bottom of the first. Makes the Rams FA signings seem even smarter. Not a good year looking for a starting LB.