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    Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft
    By Tyler Dunne of the Journal Sentinel
    March 26, 2013

    Green Bay - Five years ago, nobody would have been talking about Tavon Austin. There would have been no pre-draft hype around the 5-foot-8 receiver with the 4.34 speed.

    Where would the West Virginia wide receiver have been drafted? Gil Brandt laughed.

    "Probably the seventh round," said the retired longtime Dallas Cowboys vice president of player personnel.

    Yet next month, Austin will be a first-round pick. He's in high demand. Teams are searching for their own Randall Cobb or Percy Harvin, someone who can line up wide, in the slot, in the backfield, wherever, and serve as a roaming match-up nightmare. Both Cobb and Harvin were mutations to the wide receiver position last year. Their coaches - by any means - devised ways to get them the ball.

    So this April, West Virginia's Austin, Texas' Marquise Goodwin, maybe even Michigan's Denard Robinson and others, will be drafted to play similar roles.

    Brandt, whose work with the Cowboys spanned three decades, sees the Cobb/Harvin threat growing and staying in the NFL. It's no fad, he says. It's a trend.

    "I think the defense catches up and the offense moves ahead," Brandt said. "So I think the way that offenses are moving ahead now is with guys like Tavon Austin. And I think the other guy is Goodwin from Texas. He's not as good, but what a mismatch he is for someone to try to cover him."

    Austin was often uncoverable last fall. He caught 112 passes for 1,289 yards and 12 touchdowns and rushed for 643 yards on 72 carries with three scores. At Texas, Goodwin was more of an athlete playing football. He never caught more than 33 passes in a season. But the athlete inside Goodwin could burst out in the NFL. He competed for the Unites States in the long jump at the 2012 London Olympics and was also a sprinter and jumper at Texas.

    In the 40 at the NFL Scouting Combine, Goodwin ran a 4.27 - nearly breaking the event record. This rare, instant 0-to-60 speed will get a team to bite in the third round, Brandt said.

    Watching the Senior Bowl practices in Mobile, Ala., one NFC scout shook his head as Robinson ran long, conventional routes at wide receiver in awkward, painful succession. The former college quarterback shouldn't be used in that role, he said. He needs to be in space. That's when speed and creativity takes over.

    And in 2013, that weapon is at a premium.

    "In terms of finding a dynamic athlete, I guarantee you that there isn't a team in the league that wouldn't find a way to utilize that kind of player," the scout said. "Some better than others. But every team would love a guy like that. . . . As teams find unique ways to use players that don't have traditional body types - like the outside lane receivers - these guys are going to become a more valuable commodity than they were in previous seasons."

    Ask NFL safeties just how difficult it is to cover Harvin and Cobb.

    Through 54 total plays in a loss to Indianapolis last season, Harvin motioned 12 times, ran a fake reverse four times, lined up at tailback twice and on 29 plays he lined up either in the slot or a bunch formation. This off-season, the Seattle Seahawks traded for Harvin and gave him a six-year, $67 million contract ($25.5 million guaranteed).

    In Green Bay, Cobb had a similar effect. Before the season, Mike McCarthy studied New Orleans Saints running back Darren Sproles on film and then used the former college quarterback as a go-to weapon in the slot and on assortment of quick passes into space.

    Both players put a new stress on a defense. Cobb rarely ever came off the field in shattering the team record for all-purpose yards (2,342).

    "He's got it all," Vikings safety Harrison Smith said of Cobb. "You just have to be aware of what he can do with the ball in his hands. And at the same time, you can't favor him too much because they have so many other weapons, too. So it's really just playing your role within the scheme."

    That's why this player complicates the chess game between coordinators, too. Defenses can't leave linebackers on receivers with 4.4 speed. Defenses are forced to think and react a tick slower.

    "I think it's always nice to have a jack-of-all-trades guy," Smith continued, "just because you can do a lot of things with him and a lot of personnel match-ups where they might have him on the field but really he's playing running back. So you don't know exactly what type of personnel that is. I think that's what offensive coaches like.

    "Defenses don't know whether they should be in base or nickel or dime or whatever."

    One defense did shut both players down. In Week 3, the Seattle Seahawks held Cobb to one reception for a loss of a yard. And Harvin's game at Seattle proved to be his last with the Vikings. He lashed out at his head coach off the field and had only two catches on it.

    Safety Earl Thomas credited his defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley. The Seahawks stayed a step ahead.

    "It's a challenge. You definitely have to know where those guys are," Thomas said. "Just preparation. Gus did a great job of preparing us week in and week out. When we got out onto the field, we were able to do our job."

    More Swiss army knives are coming, starting with Austin. After playing under the same coach as Wes Welker in college, Dana Holgorsen, Austin sees no reason why his diminutive stature should be a detriment. At Indianapolis, he declared himself the best player in the draft, adding that "I think I'm a little quicker and faster than (Welker). So I figure if he can do it, I can do it too."

    Wide receiver Stedman Bailey, a teammate of Austin's, agrees. He says Austin has cut moves "you've never seen before" and "he's second to none in the country in making someone miss in space."

    So instead of going in the seventh round, Brandt sees Austin getting picked up by a bright offensive mind in the middle to late first round.

    "Austin," Brandt says, "that guy is going to be a match-up problem."

    The proof is in Harvin and Cobb.


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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    So instead of going in the seventh round, Brandt sees Austin getting picked up by a bright offensive mind in the middle to late first round.
    And there's the potential rub....does Schotty have the creativity to utilize a Swiss Army Knife?
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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    At first I thought he was talented and a potential Harvin / Cobb type -- but this is not reality. I think his place is harder to define because he is more of a mix of Sproles, Reggie Bush, McCluster, Dante Hall, and there really isn't a true comparison to this guy.

    Firstly, I want to stay that I DO believe he is a great talent. I just don't think he is a year 1, round 1 talent.

    Firstly, I think he may struggle in the passing game because he will be limited to screen passes and deep 9 routes. He didn't come from a pro system and the NFL cornerback will play bump and run with anyone.

    Secondly, the ball is bigger in the NFL. Sounds dumb but it will have an impact on him. Guys like Amendola and Harvin have huge plays but also have injuries all the time and they are only great if you can get them the ball.

    For this reason, I will him more as a Darren Sproles type player in his first year, with a couple of Chris Givens bombs mixed in to make him a better WR.

    Austin needs 3 things to succeed as a legit Round 1 starter in the league:

    #1 Strength, & Conditioning, -- He needs to get stronger, take a season of NFL licks, and survive. This will take a year for him to adjust

    #2 System -- He needs a system that will move him around and really focus on getting him the ball in "non-traditional" sets. If he went to a team like Giants or Bears -- I wouldn't really see him fitting in at all. Coaches need to find a role. Hard to line up 3 and Goal from the 2 yard line and find a spot for your First Round draft choice.

    #3 Nfl WR Class -- He needs a WR coach / veteran to teach this guy so many things. He needs to learn about press coverage, routes, formations, blocking, playing every down, and facing Linebackers that are all elite. This will take time and I think the Rams will pass based on this.

    To sum it up, I think he is a great Round 2 pick, maybe a Round 1 pick for a team who has there offense in place and just needs to add 1 more piece of explosion. Can he play bigger? maybe like a Victor Cruz, there are lots of doubts but you have to love his effort.

    I think if he went to the perfect system he would end up with 600 yds 6 tds and maybe some help on kickoffs (even though the NFL is all touchbacks).....so you may fill this role with 2 lesser players..(1 RB / 1 WR) ....It will be very interesting because this guy is hard to project....

    I just wouldn't want him in Round 1 as Ram fan.

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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Quote Originally Posted by richtree View Post
    At first I thought he was talented and a potential Harvin / Cobb type -- but this is not reality. I think his place is harder to define because he is more of a mix of Sproles, Reggie Bush, McCluster, Dante Hall, and there really isn't a true comparison to this guy.

    Firstly, I want to stay that I DO believe he is a great talent. I just don't think he is a year 1, round 1 talent.

    Firstly, I think he may struggle in the passing game because he will be limited to screen passes and deep 9 routes. He didn't come from a pro system and the NFL cornerback will play bump and run with anyone.

    Secondly, the ball is bigger in the NFL. Sounds dumb but it will have an impact on him. Guys like Amendola and Harvin have huge plays but also have injuries all the time and they are only great if you can get them the ball.

    For this reason, I will him more as a Darren Sproles type player in his first year, with a couple of Chris Givens bombs mixed in to make him a better WR.

    Austin needs 3 things to succeed as a legit Round 1 starter in the league:

    #1 Strength, & Conditioning, -- He needs to get stronger, take a season of NFL licks, and survive. This will take a year for him to adjust

    #2 System -- He needs a system that will move him around and really focus on getting him the ball in "non-traditional" sets. If he went to a team like Giants or Bears -- I wouldn't really see him fitting in at all. Coaches need to find a role. Hard to line up 3 and Goal from the 2 yard line and find a spot for your First Round draft choice.

    #3 Nfl WR Class -- He needs a WR coach / veteran to teach this guy so many things. He needs to learn about press coverage, routes, formations, blocking, playing every down, and facing Linebackers that are all elite. This will take time and I think the Rams will pass based on this.

    To sum it up, I think he is a great Round 2 pick, maybe a Round 1 pick for a team who has there offense in place and just needs to add 1 more piece of explosion. Can he play bigger? maybe like a Victor Cruz, there are lots of doubts but you have to love his effort.

    I think if he went to the perfect system he would end up with 600 yds 6 tds and maybe some help on kickoffs (even though the NFL is all touchbacks).....so you may fill this role with 2 lesser players..(1 RB / 1 WR) ....It will be very interesting because this guy is hard to project....

    I just wouldn't want him in Round 1 as Ram fan.
    Well, I'm certainly glad you'll have nothing to do with the decision of whether to draft him or not. If he's there for the Rams at 16 or 22, I think they'd be foolish not to take him.

    The list of things he'll have to learn are things everyone new to the NFL will have to learn, so I'm not quite sure what your point was there.

    As far as projecting what kind of impact he'll have, the fact that he's on the field is already a mismatch the defense has to pay extra attention to. So he'll have an impact whether he has the ball or not, his statistics will be the bonus.

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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Fortuninerhater View Post
    Well, I'm certainly glad you'll have nothing to do with the decision of whether to draft him or not. If he's there for the Rams at 16 or 22, I think they'd be foolish not to take him.

    The list of things he'll have to learn are things everyone new to the NFL will have to learn, so I'm not quite sure what your point was there.

    As far as projecting what kind of impact he'll have, the fact that he's on the field is already a mismatch the defense has to pay extra attention to. So he'll have an impact whether he has the ball or not, his statistics will be the bonus.
    Why does the defense need to pay extra attention to him? Secondly, we won't be on the field as a 3 down player. You could argue the defense has a mismatch because he wouldn't run routes down the middle of the field nor line up on the outside. Will he be able to block a blitzing Linebacker from the backfield.??? -- I don't know -- The NFL offense may be a total mismatch, unless a coach will fully change his plays for a rookie....I think he is a 2 to 3 year player....Cobb took time and Harvin may up and down at first.....Sproles too., and Reggie Bush too., and on and on...

    I understand your point, but be careful with the term 'mismatch'.




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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Quote Originally Posted by richtree View Post
    Why does the defense need to pay extra attention to him? Secondly, we won't be on the field as a 3 down player. You could argue the defense has a mismatch because he wouldn't run routes down the middle of the field nor line up on the outside. Will he be able to block a blitzing Linebacker from the backfield.??? -- I don't know -- The NFL offense may be a total mismatch, unless a coach will fully change his plays for a rookie....I think he is a 2 to 3 year player....Cobb took time and Harvin may up and down at first.....Sproles too., and Reggie Bush too., and on and on...

    I understand your point, but be careful with the term 'mismatch'.



    Because if they don't, he's the type of player that could score at any time, from anywhere on the field.

    Secondly, how could you possibly know whether he'll be on the field as a 3 down player? And what difference does that make anyway?

    It could be that if the defense doesn't pay extra attention to him, it won't even be a third down.

    It's the coach's job to put guys in positions where they can succeed, if he can't pick up blitzing LBs, don't put him in that position. Seems simple enough to me.

    And finally, anytime you have a player with the quickness, speed, agility, vision, and elusiveness of a Tavon Austin, he will be a "mismatch nightmare" for any defense that tries to cover him with Safeties and LBs.

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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Answer me this... if he's such a nightmare matchup, how did he only average 11.5 yards per catch and 10.5 yards per touch last year? It's not like West Virginia was exactly playing the best defenses week in and week out. I think it ws Fast Cat that was suggesting that he'd be a no doubt 20 yards per touch guy. If he couldn't do that in college, how is he going to add 9 yards per catch going into NFL level defensive talent?
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    I believe!

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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Quote Originally Posted by TekeRam View Post
    Answer me this... if he's such a nightmare matchup, how did he only average 11.5 yards per catch and 10.5 yards per touch last year? It's not like West Virginia was exactly playing the best defenses week in and week out. I think it ws Fast Cat that was suggesting that he'd be a no doubt 20 yards per touch guy. If he couldn't do that in college, how is he going to add 9 yards per catch going into NFL level defensive talent?
    I, for one, am all for Austin with one of our 1st two picks. But Teke does bring up a legit question.

    I didn't watch much WVU football, but I assume the answer has something to do with scheming? Was he used as a more traditional flanker and/or slot role?

    I don't know. I'm straight up guessing.
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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Everything I've read from the other Austin posts were that when he was split out, he was used out wide, but did the vast amount of his damage from the slot.
    I believe!

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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    I don't have the numbers to back it up, but my recollection from watching WVU every game is that his route depth frequently was not very far from the LOS.

    You have to consider, the guy caught 111 balls predominantly as a slot receiver, not on the outside. So yes, while he's breaking a couple for a long gain and while he is getting some intermediate stuff down the field, far more of his receptions are short slants or curls or screens or drags across the field, getting him the ball quickly and in space. When those plays get blown up or don't work, those averages go down.

    Games like Marshall, KState, OSU... he had multiple receptions but none over twenty yards, and those averages will bring him down.

    It would not surprise me if that's what happens to him in the pros as well. Used in the slot or in motion on short routes that get him the ball in space, and then see if he can do something with them. Look at the kind of averages Percy Harvin has over the last two seasons; it wouldn't surprise me if Austin was in that 10-11 ypc range as a pro.

    Hopefully whatever team drafts him has some other weapons who can stretch the defense and give him room to work underneath. I just don't see a guy who is going to spend a lot of time lining up outside or challenging deep. He has the speed, but I think he's best at working underneath and making things happen with his speed and elusiveness.
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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Quote Originally Posted by TekeRam View Post
    Everything I've read from the other Austin posts were that when he was split out, he was used out wide, but did the vast amount of his damage from the slot.
    If you need a comparison, look no further than Danny Amendola's best season when he averaged 8.1 yards a catch on 85 catches from precisely the same area of the field.

    If you translated that 8.1 ypc to first downs, Danny would've amassed 69 first downs on his career high 85 catches.

    Tavon Austin on the other hand, would've amassed 97 first downs on those same 85 catches. That's a huge difference if you ask me.

    Secondly, who scoffs at someone who averages 10.5 yards a touch and touches the ball as much as Austin does? That's a first down every time he touches the ball.
    Last edited by Fortuninerhater; -03-28-2013 at 12:05 AM.
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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Fortuninerhater View Post
    If you need a comparison, look no further than Danny Amendola's best season when he averaged 8.1 yards a catch on 85 catches from precisely the same area of the field.

    If you translated that 8.1 ypc to first downs, Danny would've amassed 69 first downs on his career high 85 catches.

    Tavon Austin on the other hand, would've amassed 97 first downs on those same 85 catches. That's a huge difference if you ask me.

    Secondly, who scoffs at someone who averages 10.5 yards a touch and touches the ball as much as Austin does? That's a first down every time he touches the ball.

    to be fair, amendola averaged 11.4 yards a carry his senior year at texas tech...so the nfl translation of a minus 3 yards seems reasonable...sure, austin is faster, but so is the nfl

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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick
    It would not surprise me if that's what happens to him in the pros as well. Used in the slot or in motion on short routes that get him the ball in space, and then see if he can do something with them. Look at the kind of averages Percy Harvin has over the last two seasons; it wouldn't surprise me if Austin was in that 10-11 ypc range as a pro.
    So, if I'm reading you right, would it be fair to say that a successful Austin translates to a 10-11 ypa; rather than the 18-20 that some fans are expecting?

    Is this just another case of outer limits expectations that fans sometimes have?
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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    So, if I'm reading you right, would it be fair to say that a successful Austin translates to a 10-11 ypa; rather than the 18-20 that some fans are expecting?

    Is this just another case of outer limits expectations that fans sometimes have?
    I think if you want to be optimistic, you could hope for something higher. Something in the 13-14 range. Steve Smith has a career yards-per-reception average right under 15. Maybe that's the best case scenario.

    But being able to average 18-20 per reception, consistently, is incredibly hard, especially if you're talking about a featured guy getting a lot of touches. Right now, there are only five guys playing in the entire league who average more than 17 yards per reception on their career - Devery Henderson, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, and Malcom Floyd.

    Henderson is a situational deep threat, only caught more than 34 balls in a season one time. Floyd is as well to some extent; he has some starts under his belt, but has only surpassed 50 receptions once in his career. Vincent Jackson is a stud, there's no two ways about it. Mike Wallace's and DeSean Jackson's averages have come down in the last two years into a more normal range, which goes back to the issue of doing it consistently.

    Could Austin hit that kind of average every once in a while on a season? Sure. But year in and year out? The numbers tell me no; there are only a handful of guys in the league right now that approach those kinds of averages, and you'd think if Austin was capable of that kind of deep game, WVU would have utilized him more in that role.

    Something to consider: Austin finished third in the NCAA in receptions last year, but 11th in yards. 40 of his receptions were of ten or more yards, 16 were for 20 or more yards, 13 were for 30 or more yards, 9 were for 40 or more yards, and 2 were for 50 or more yards.

    You know who had similar numbers in those areas last year? Quinton Patton, the LA Tech guy the Rams are working out. But his numbers at 50 and beyond are superior; he has three times the number of catches 50 yards or more than Tavon Austin did. Now, he doesn't offer quite the versatility or athleticism that Austin does, but he does have better size for the position and could be available in Round Two, freeing up the Rams to add someone else in the first.

    I'm not saying that you pass on Tavon Austin for Quinton Patton, I'm just helping out with some numbers.

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    Re: Multi-dimensional threats in demand in NFL draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post

    You know who had similar numbers in those areas last year? Quinton Patton, the LA Tech guy the Rams are working out. But his numbers at 50 and beyond are superior; he has three times the number of catches 50 yards or more than Tavon Austin did. Now, he doesn't offer quite the versatility or athleticism that Austin does, but he does have better size for the position and could be available in Round Two, freeing up the Rams to add someone else in the first.

    I'm not saying that you pass on Tavon Austin for Quinton Patton, I'm just helping out with some numbers.
    These are very interesting numbers. I would not pass on Austin for Patton BUT I would at 16 for Chance Warmack. Knowing there will be some talent at the receiver position in the second would make it almost impossible to pass on a talent like Warmack.

    At 22 if Austin is still on the board that will be a tough call to pass on him depending who's still on the board.

    At 22, Kenny Vaccaro, Alec Ogletree, Jarvis Jones there are some guys that would still have to be considered if they are there as well.

    Here is another thing to consider IF we take a WR in the first round the exceptions for a first round pick would be higher then both Givens and Quick. I'm not sure Austin could deliver that sharing reps in the slot with Cook.

    Can't wait to see what we do!

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