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Thread: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

  1. #1
    general counsel's Avatar
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    My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    We all love to do tons of analysis on all the possibilities with the #2 pick. All the stories quoting "sources" and inside info floating around, along with the tons of mock drafts add plenty of logs to the fire. After careful consideration, and lots of waffling, i currently find myself in a pretty simple place.

    If Clowney is available, I believe the Rams will either take him or trade the pick and i think its going to take something really good for us to make a deal (ie atlanta for the 6, 37 and something next year at the minimum). If Clowney is not available, i think we will try harder to trade the pick and will be willing to accept less for it.

    At the end of the day, for all the noise, if a really good trade can't be worked out, i dont see Fisher passing on the best player in the draft, especially given the importance of pass rush in the nfl today and how much that impacts overall defense.

    Said another way, i dont believe that the Rams will pick anyone other than clowney at #2 if clowney is available.

    For the record, i think Houston will take clowney with the #1 pick.

    Ramming speed to all

    general counsel
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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    I agree, I think Houston takes Clowney at #1.

    I also think that they'll take Matthews over Robinson if OL is their choice, not sure about them taking Watkins, at #2.

    Trade down is so strong a possibility regardless Clowney being there or not. But again, if Clowney is there at 2, I think your right that offers would have to be better than if he weren't.
    Semper Fi!

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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    I agree with you GC so here is my question. What is the number or the value of Clowney at two for the Rams? Is he worth 1,2,3 round picks this year? Is he worth 1,2 and first round next year?

    Would getting Robinson or Matthews be to good to pass up at 4 or 5 along with just getting a second pick this year? Or do the Rams think Clowney is to good to pass up unless they get a ton for him?

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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    Well said GC. I'll attempt to one up you here: With Clowney going #1 overall, the Rams should take the most polished prospect in this draft with Jake Matthews. Once the #13 overall selection arrives, if Dennard is available then you pull the dang trigger!

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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    At the end of the day, for all the noise, if a really good trade can't be worked out, i dont see Fisher passing on the best player in the draft, especially given the importance of pass rush in the nfl today and how much that impacts overall defense.
    This, however, is exactly where the argument becomes somewhat circular.

    Certainly, it makes sense that Jeff Fisher would not pass on the "best player in the draft." The question, however, is whether Jadeveon Clowney is that player.

    Many think he is, but its hardly unanimous. Some think Khalil Mack is the top player. Some think Gregg Robinsion is. Some think Jake Matthews is. There may be some who think Sammy Watkins is.

    Majority view is irrelevant here. The only people with votes are Fisher, Les Snead and, perhaps, some of the other coaches and front office personnel.

    I'm certain that the Rams have been, and are continuing to, evaluate Clowney as a player and a person. If, in the end, he is the selection, it will be because he is deemed to be head and shoulders above all other available players.

    And if that's there conclusion, I certainly won't argue with it.

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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    I think there are 2 clear cut picks for the 1 and 2 spot.

    Bortles and Clowney. If we don't want either, we have to do our best to trade down. Either way we will have sutiors.

    The question is do we want Clowney #1, and #2 what we get in return has to be worth losing out on Clowney and any other picks we would miss on...Robinson ,etc.....

    I think overall we will trade down 80% chance.....but if we do stay and don't pick Clowney...that would be our biggest risk...

    AFter all this talk, we have to give credit to a great deal with the Redskins and really have a great draft this season. I don't think we want too many picks again next season, I rather have them now....or even a player now.....

    time is ticking on Fisher and Les

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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    I don't know what is wrong with fans. Of course the Rams aren't going to take Clowney if he's not there. That's obvious. They're only potentially going to select him if he's available when they make their selection.
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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    I completely agree with you concerning the pick of Clowney at #2. His availability is under question right now as Houston may indeed take him at #1, or receive a bounty of picks similar to what we got in the RG III trade from a team looking to trade up. The team most likely to make that move is Atlanta. They've shown their willingness to make dramatic moves in years past. Plus it squares with their burning need for a pass rusher.

    Where I disagree with you is our willingness to accept less than full value for trading our #2 pick. I recall reading recently that our #2 pick to Atlanta would garner us their 1st, 2nd and 5th this year and perhaps another pick from next year. I'm not remembering the exact picks. I just don't see Les Snead making a deal unless he gets full or very close value. He's got a reputation as a hard bargainer and I don't think he wants that tarnished.

    I've been a Sammy Watkins advocate lately, but the thought of Clowney on our defense really intrigues me. With G. Williams as our DC he is likely to devise some creative ways to integrate Clowney in the defense that scares some teams. Plus, your point about Jeff Fisher not passing on a pass rushing stud is spot on. Good thoughts, keep 'em coming.

    Go Rams!
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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    Its a pretty good assumption that Clowney in most eyes is the top player. I do believe Houston will take him, or make a trade for him themselves and get a QB. No QB has really stood head and shoulders above anyone else. Some say Bortles, all of a sudden Manziel pops up, then he's a bust. Bridgewater was projected there all year, now he's iffy do to a bad pro day.

    Without Clowney Its going to be hard to trade. Robinson and Matthews, I heard over and over I be happy with either, so that is going to be a matter of why move up when one of them will come to us and either of which I will be happy. Maybe someone is Watkins crazed, but to move up to number 2 to get him?? Not sure about that. Mack might be intriguing and he might end up being the one that gets us that trade.

    If it doesn't happen we are going to take Robinson or Matthews. Given Fisher's loyalty to his old team it will be Matthews. I'm just seeing that is how his mind works.

    Depending on how it works out it might very well be our 2nd pick that is what will get the action of trade working.

    I for one would love a trade for the number 2 pick to get another 2nd rounder, and/or 1st next year depending how far down we would go. But as I am seeing it. Matthews will be our pick.

  10. #10
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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    I can't argue with the logic that Clowney, as the possible BPA, may very well be the pick if the Rams stay at 2. I just don't think they'll stay there if he's on the board.

    The Rams gave up some value when trading down from 6th in 2012 and from 22nd in 2013, though the difference wasn't substantial. So while I don't think they'll offer a huge discount for the pick if Clowney is there, I do think they'll be willing to take less than what some fans may be dreaming of in order to move down.

    Fisher and Snead may really like Clowney, but a league-leading pass rush hasn't gotten the Rams by Seattle and San Francisco in the division. They need to improve elsewhere if they want to contend for the West title. In two drafts, the Rams have addressed significant need positions with their first round picks (DT in 2012, WR/LB in 2013), and they haven't been afraid to move up and down the order in order to do so.

    If Clowney is on the board @ 2, I think the Rams will agree to trade down - not at a significant value chart discount, but not necessarily at exactly the full value or more either - so they can gain more picks in a great draft class and be in a better position to improve the weaker areas of the team. I very well could be wrong, but that's how I would do it were it me.

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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    I see your current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick and raise you my own.

    I just had a quick glance at last year's draft. Of the first 11 picks, 6 of them were OL (5 tackles 1 guard).

    We think alike, but so much so, that our results are completely different. My current and very basic thinking is as follows: If Rams pick at #2, it's OT. Here's why...

    If the Rams even have a pick at #2, it's because Clowney was snatched up at #1 and no one wants to trade up enough, forcing Rams to take OL based on BPA+Need. If Clowney is there at #2, I think someone will make a good enough offer that the Rams trade down... picking up OL and DL in the later 1st and 2nd rounds.

    34 days left!

    [edit: For the record, the "you" and "your" in my post is directed to the OP, not to Nick who's reply is right above mine, and appears to have a similar outlook as me]
    Last edited by KoaKoi; -04-04-2014 at 08:54 PM. Reason: clarification
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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    rams have had the pass rush, while they could use a little bit of an improvement...
    the secondary needs the most

    cause if you can't run on the rams...you beat them by passing, that needs to stop lol
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    Re: My current and very basic thinking on the #2 pick

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    If Clowney is available, I believe the Rams will either take him or trade the pick and i think its going to take something really good for us to make a deal (ie atlanta for the 6, 37 and something next year at the minimum). If Clowney is not available, i think we will try harder to trade the pick and will be willing to accept less for it.

    At the end of the day, for all the noise, if a really good trade can't be worked out, i dont see Fisher passing on the best player in the draft, especially given the importance of pass rush in the nfl today and how much that impacts overall defense.

    Said another way, i dont believe that the Rams will pick anyone other than clowney at #2 if clowney is available.

    For the record, i think Houston will take clowney with the #1 pick.

    Ramming speed to all

    general counsel
    +1000%

    I share the exact same sentiments. I am a Clowney backer, but I can understand trading down and acquiring more picks even if it is at a "less than market value" rate. The only way I would be disappointed with the Rams choice is if they stayed at #2 with Clowney on the board and selected someone else. Either take him there or trade down and take someone else. Staying put and not getting anything in return would really have me scratching my head.

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