1ST ROUND
1. Miami Dolphins: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
I finalized the picks in my two-round mock last night, and began working on the reasoning in the wee hours of the morning. I got about two thirds of the way done before calling it a night. I return to the computer to work on it today only to find out the first pick seems to be in the book, as Jake Long and the Miami Dolphins have agreed on contract terms. So there appears to be no reason to beat around the bush here – it appears Jake Long will be a Miami Dolphin.
2. St. Louis Rams: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
With Jake Long off the board, the Rams will look to address their defensive line, but with who? Injuries and age have created a more pressing need at end, but the team may view Glenn Dorsey as the draft’s best defensive player. Dorsey may have the edge if the Rams truly aren’t concerned about his health, but I feel that Chris Long is the better choice here as he not only is one of the draft’s best prospects but also addresses a glaring area of weakness.
3. Atlanta Falcons: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
For the longest time, many felt the Falcons would be forced to go with Boston College’s Matt Ryan with this selection. After all, what better way to bury past problems at the quarterback position than by finding a new franchise signal-caller to build around? However, the Falcons have enough picks to move up and take a quarterback later on, allowing the defensive-minded Mike Smith to take defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey here.
4. Oakland Raiders: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
I’ve read a number of reports from various “sources” across the internet that Al Davis loves him some Darren McFadden, so it’s tempting to project the Arkansas runner to the Raiders here. However, the Raiders have some pretty solid personnel at running back already. If they still plan to move Tommy Kelly inside to tackle, then adding Vernon Gholston as a pass-rushing end would really make their defensive line a formidable one.
5. Kansas City Chiefs: Brandon Albert, OT, Virginia
Tough pick to project. The Chiefs have had a couple weeks to get used to the reality of Jake Long not being here. Do they simply go best player available and take Ryan or Ellis? Ryan is tempting, but I’m just not sure they’re ready to give up on Croyle yet. Last year, the Cardinals surprised many by taking Levi Brown at the five-spot. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs do something similar and take a lineman like Albert a bit earlier than some may project.
6. New York Jets: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
With a backfield made up of Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and Jesse Chatman, running back doesn’t appear to be a top need for the Jets. But at this point, it’s difficult to pass on a game-changing talent like McFadden, especially when you consider that Jones will be turning thirty years old this season, a dreadful mark for running backs. The Jets have spent time courting McFadden recently; it could be smoke, but sometimes where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
***TRADE: New England trades their first-round pick (7th overall) to New Orleans for their first-round pick (10th overall) and third-round pick (78th overall).***
7. New Orleans Saints (f/NE): Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
The Saints were rumored to be talking to the Rams about moving up to the two-spot so they could possibly take LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey. In my mock, that deal didn’t go through, but it won’t stop the Saints from making another move. The Patriots probably aren’t crazy about the value of any player where they’re picking, so I’d look for them to want to move down. New Orleans takes advantage and gets the draft’s second best defensive tackle.
8. Baltimore Ravens: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
This is a great situation for the Ravens, especially considering Steve McNair’s abrupt retirement only a few days ago. Depending on how believable the Chiefs’ interest in Ryan is, Baltimore may find themselves having to move up if they want to acquire this young prospect. If Ryan gets by Kansas City, the Ravens can let out a small sigh of relief, though they shouldn’t rule out another team trying to leapfrog them in order to take the draft’s best quarterback.
9. Cincinnati Bengals: Keith Rivers, LB, USC
The Bengals have a number of linebackers on their roster, but quantity does not necessarily equal quality. Dhani Jones can likely be penciled in to one starting spot on the outside, and Ahmad Brooks will look to hold off the returning Odell Thurman to start at middle linebacker. But the Bengals could really use another playmaker in this unit, and with the defensive tackles off the board, I think USC’s Keith Rivers becomes the pick here.
10. New England Patriots (f/NO): Derrick Harvey, DE/OLB, Florida
Oh, those crafty Patriots. Trading down with New Orleans puts them in better position to draft an impact defender. It’s pretty tempting to go cornerback here, as the value is better and it’s likely their biggest need. But the Patriots have done well in the past without elite talent at corner. What they really need is some young talent at linebacker, and most think Derrick Harvey has the potential to be a stand-up pass rusher at the next level.
11. Buffalo Bills: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
The Bills would kill for a trade here, primary because they want to address their receiver corps but don’t feel the value is great at this spot in the draft. They very well could convince a team to move up, especially since none of the cornerbacks have gone off the board yet. Arizona, Houston, or Philadelphia could be possible partners. But the Bills could also use some help in the secondary as well, so they may find it hard to pass on the draft’s best pass defender.
***TRADE: Denver trades their first-round pick (12th overall) to Arizona for their first-round pick (16th overall) and third-round pick (81st overall).***
12. Arizona Cardinals (f/DEN): Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
And here comes the trade. It’s no secret that the Cardinals would like to improve their personnel at corner. They’ll likely be moving former first-round corner Antrel Rolle to safety, creating a hole in the starting line-up. While it’s unlikely that the Broncos, Panthers, or Bears take a corner with their first round picks, Detroit is the wild card, so the Cardinals may be able to find a trade partner in Denver if they want to jump Detroit to take a promising talent in DRC.
13. Carolina Panthers: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
Perhaps slightly disappointed that Florida’s Derrick Harvey didn’t make it to their selection, the Panthers will get over their sad feelings very quickly when they realize Boise State’s Ryan Clady is still on the board. The Panthers have been looking for a legitimate left tackle for a while now, and by drafting Clady, they’ll be able to push Travelle Wharton back inside to guard where he’s better suited.
14. Chicago Bears: Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
There are few teams in this draft in more need for offensive line help than the Chicago Bears. The decision to part ways with both Ruben Brown and Fred Miller created two significant holes on the Bears’ line. The situation is complicated by the fact that John Tait probably is nearing the end of his career as well. Thus, a youth infusion is needed, and there may be no better fit for Chicago’s line than the size and strength of Pittsburgh’s Jeff Otah.
15. Detroit Lions: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
This is another spot where Harvey would have been an ideal fit, as Detroit needs to find more defensive playmakers for Rod Marinelli’s unit. With that in mind, Tennessee’s Jerod Mayo is going to get some consideration here. But if Detroit sticks to their board, they’ll likely have Illinois running back Rashard Mendenhall rated higher. And since the Lions aren’t exactly loaded with running back talent, Mendenhall makes quite a bit of sense.
16. Denver Broncos (f/ARI): Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee
With needs in their defensive front seven, the Broncos weren’t exactly thrilled at the value they’d be getting at those positions at their previous spot. But now that they’ve moved down a few slots by trading with Arizona, they’re in a better position to address their defense. Mayo has really been rising up draft boards recently, and selecting him here could allow the Broncos to move D.J. Williams back outside.
***TRADE: Minnesota trades their first-round pick (17th overall) and third-round picks (73rd and 82nd overall) to Kansas City for DE Jared Allen.***
17. Kansas City Chiefs (f/MIN): Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
So, the deal between the Chiefs and the Vikings has officially gone down. As I was writing this mock, I had it being made for Minnesota’s first-round pick and one of its third-round picks. In the end, they included both third rounders. Now that the Chiefs have another pick in the first round, they’ll be in a position to address their need at cornerback. Some feel Mike Jenkins could go much higher than this, so the Chiefs would be well served to snatch him up here.
18. Houston Texans: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Without a second-round pick this year, the Texans need to make sure they find a promising talent with their first round pick. For ages now, it seems as if Houston has been trying to find a franchise left tackle for their weak offensive line. After trying a number of combinations, they may be best served by looking for the answer in the draft. Chris Williams has excellent left tackle potential, and should be the pick.
19. Philadelphia Eagles: Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
Philadelphia would have loved to see Williams fall to them, but Houston had to ruin their plans. The signing of Asante Samuel doesn’t mean the Eagles won’t be tempted to go cornerback here, especially with Kansas playmaker Aqib Talib on the board. But despite signing Kevin Curtis last spring, the Eagles are still searching for that top receiving threat. Michigan State’s Thomas is the best receiver prospect in the draft, so perhaps Philly has struck gold.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
The Bucs will probably be holding their breath to see if Talib makes it by Houston and Philadelphia, both of whom have issues in the secondary. If he slides past both of them, then Tampa could very well take him with their first-round pick. Some would argue that the Bucs traditionally don’t use high picks on defensive backs, but I think they’ll make an exception for a prospect like Talib, who could really succeed in their defensive system.
21. Washington Redskins: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
The Redskins could certainly use a big wide receiver in their new offensive scheme, so Limas Sweed is an option. They aren’t exactly set at defensive tackle, so perhaps they look at Kentwan Balmer. When it’s all said and done though, the Redskins would like to add another defensive end. This was a toss-up between Merling and Campbell, but even with his injury I think Merling probably carries a higher grade.
22. Dallas Cowboys (f/CLE): Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
The Cowboys need some youth at receiver, someone they can groom behind Terrell Owens to become the go-to guy in the future. What better prospect to add than a Texas Longhorn? Sweed has the size and speed combination that scouts and coaches crave. The only real question about him is regarding his wrist, which has been lingering for a while but should be on the mend.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Clearly one of the biggest needs for the Pittsburgh Steelers is on the offensive line, but there are some other areas that I think could be options for them with this pick. It sounds as if the organization likes what they see in Quentin Groves, and I wouldn’t rule out a defensive lineman like Kentwan Balmer if he’s here. In the end, I just have a hard time projecting Pittsburgh taking either of those players when a talented lineman like Cherilus is available.
24. Tennessee Titans: DeSean Jackson, WR, California
Last year as free agency neared, I thought the Rams should pursue Justin Gage as a potential third or fourth receiver with some height. Instead, he went to Tennessee, where he became the top option for developing quarterback Vince Young. But I would hope the Titans don’t consider Gage an ideal #1 receiver. Finding a compliment who could also be dangerous on special teams as Pacman Jones used to be could be a direction the Titans look here.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Well, Shaun Alexander has been cut. The leading rusher in Seahawks history has been shown the door. Presently, the ‘Hawks have a solid enough looking committee of runners to fill his shoes, including Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett, and Maurice Morris. But I don’t see a true franchise back in there, and should Jonathan Stewart slip this far, he’d give Seattle someone to groom to eventually be that kind of player.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars: Calias Campbell, DE, Miami
There are some who probably feel as if Campbell’s poor junior season and poor offseason workouts may cause him to slide out of the first round. That certainly could be the case, but I’ve also been exposed to some opinions that feel as if Campbell could still be taken high simply because of his size and potential. I think going here to the Jaguars is a good in-between, as Jacksonville needs a defensive end and Campbell could turn out to be a stud for them.
***TRADE: San Diego trades their first round pick (27th overall) to Atlanta for their second-round pick (37th overall) and third-round pick (68th overall).***
27. Atlanta Falcons (f/SD): Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
The Chargers lack second and third-round picks due to trades, so they seem like they’re in a prime spot to move down. Atlanta gives up a bit of value in this move, but I think they’d be willing to do so in order to jump up and take Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm. The irony of this selection is that when Bobby Petrino was their coach, most projected Brohm to be their draft target. Petrino has since left, but the Falcons may still find a way to grab Brohm.
28. Dallas Cowboys: Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Dallas is in an interesting situation when it comes to their running game. They let Julius Jones walk as a free agent, but don’t seem quite ready to make Marion Barber a feature back. He’s spurned their $30 million contract offer and looks like he’ll play on his one-year tender offer. Drafting a running back like Felix Jones not only gives the Cowboys a second back to pair with Barber, but also protects them in case Marion leaves as a free agent next year.
29. San Francisco ***** (f/IND): Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, Auburn
If Quentin Groves makes it by the ***** and into the second round, I’ll be rather surprised. I know there has been some medical information about a heart surgery he’s had that could scare some teams away, but he’s expected to make a full recovery. The fact of the matter is the ***** need to desperately improve their pass rush, and drafting a rush linebacker in Groves could continue to improve their desired 3-4 defensive scheme.
30. Green Bay Packers: Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
I’m not really sure the Packers have any glaring weaknesses on their team right now. There’s a big question mark at quarterback, but Green Bay isn’t going to reward Aaron Rodgers’ patience by drafting another QB here. I think with this pick, the Packers are in a good position to find a cornerback who can step in immediate in nickel packages but eventually replacing either Al Harris (33) or Charles Woodson (31) in the starting line-up.
31. New York Giants: Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
The Giants’ personnel at safety is hardly impressive, especially due to Gibril Wilson’s free agency departure. Word is that 33-year-old Sammy Knight will try his hand at free safety, while James Butler competes with Michael Johnson at strong safety. Really? The Giants could get rid of this headache situation by spending their first round pick on the best safety in the draft, Miami’s Kenny Phillips.
2ND ROUND
32. Miami Dolphins: Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
The Dolphins would have loved to get Groves here, but he went just a few picks earlier. Cornerback is an option, but I think Parcells and company take a passer here to compete with John Beck, who isn’t their guy to begin with.
33. St. Louis Rams: Sam Baker, OT, USC
The Rams know they have to upgrade the offensive line, and if they go with a tackle, I think it’ll be someone with left tackle potential. At this point, Baker is the best lineman on the board and can develop behind
Orlando Pace in order to start down the road.
34. Atlanta Falcons (f/OAK): Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
Fun fact - the Falcons have drafted six Virginia Tech players in the last nine drafts. Do they dip into the pool again? By trading DeAngelo Hall, they created a hole at cornerback that Brandon Flowers could work to fill.
***TRADE: Kansas City trades their second-round pick (35th overall) to Carolina for their second-round pick (43rd overall) and fourth-round pick (109th overall).***
35. Carolina Panthers (f/KC): Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
The Panthers missed out on getting a defensive end in the first round, and Mike Rucker’s retirement may force them to move up if they want to address it here. Kansas City could take Jackson themselves but may be okay with trading down if they’re in full rebuild mode.
36. New York Jets: Kentwan Balmer, DL, North Carolina
Balmer really slipped a bit in my draft, but I think it’s possible if teams are worried about his work ethic and inconsistency. The Jets could look at a big receiver like James Hardy, but taking McFadden in round one may force them to go defense here in Balmer.
37. San Diego Chargers (f/ATL): Reggie Smith, DB, Oklahoma
The Chargers trade out of the first and end up with a player some felt could be an option for them in the first round anyways. Smith could be tried at cornerback, but also offers the versatility to play safety as well.
38. Baltimore Ravens: Tracy Porter, CB, Indiana
After taking a quarterback in the first round, finding some young talent to work behind Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle will be vital for the Ravens. In the second round, they should still be able to get a solid young corner prospect.
39. San Francisco *****: Trevor Laws, DL, Notre Dame
The addition of Justin Smith and the five-year contract given to Isaac Sopoaga may lower the D-line on the *****’ list of needs, but Sopoaga was primarily a nose tackle – will his move to end work out? If it doesn’t, the ***** will be glad to have a hard worker in Laws.
***TRADE: New Orleans trades their second-round pick (40th overall) to Detroit for their second-round pick (45th overall) and fifth-round pick (144th overall).***
40. Detroit Lions (f/NO): Dan Connor, LB, Penn State
After trading up in the first round, New Orleans may be looking to acquire more picks by moving down later on. Detroit could very well be willing to trade up if they see Dan Connor as a guy who could anchor the middle of the linebacking corps.
41. Buffalo Bills: James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Passing on a receiver in the first round doesn’t look like such a bad decision for Buffalo. I’m not convinced Hardy lasts this long, but it fell this way in my mock and I’m sure the Bills would be ecstatic if it fell this way on Saturday.
42. Denver Broncos: Pat Sims, DT, Auburn
The Broncos acquired a much-needed defensive piece in Jerod Mayo in the first round. Look for them to come back in the second round and find a player that will be able to keep blockers off of their first rounder.
43. Kansas City Chiefs (f/CAR): Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
The Chiefs love what they have in Dwayne Bowe, but look as if they may have to start Devard Darling opposite him. Hardly an ideal situation. Avery is considered by some to be a top 40 player and would compliment Bowe well.
44. Chicago Bears: Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
The Bears further opened up the possibility of a quarterback by trading away Brian Griese, leaving them only with Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton. Few think that’s a great situation, so if Flacco is on the board, he could be their guy.
45. New Orleans Saints (f/DET): Justin King, CB, Penn State
After acquiring Jonathan Vilma and Dan Morgan this offseason, the Saints may not view linebacker as a top priority. If they pass on Connor and trade down with Detroit, they may still be in a position to try to improve their ailing secondary.
***TRADE: Cincinnati trades their second-round pick (46th overall) to Green Bay for their second-round pick (60th overall) and their fourth-round pick (91st overall).***
46. Green Bay Packers (f/CIN): Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech
Leapfrogging the Vikings in order to take arguably the best tackle on the board probably sounds like a good situation to Green Bay. Because the Packers have two quality tackles, they have the time to allow Brown to develop at the position.
47. Minnesota Vikings: DaJuan Morgan, S, NC State
The Vikings would have loved to get Brown here and may consider Collins, but their situation at safety is also a question mark. Guys like DaJuan Morgan and Tyrell Johnson are rising up draft boards, so one could be the pick here.
48. Atlanta Falcons: Anthony Collins, OT, Kansas
The Falcons really need a lot of help on their offensive line. Had Jake Long somehow slipped to them in round one, he would have been a great pick. Instead, they use one of their second rounders on a tackle in Collins.
49. Philadelphia Eagles: Martellus Bennett, TE, Texas A&M
Bennett is very good value at this point in the draft, and while tight end may not appear to be a huge need for Philadelphia on first glance, recall that L.J. Smith is playing on a one-year deal and there isn’t much behind him.
50. Arizona Cardinals: Cliff Avril, OLB, Purdue
Running back would be a strong consideration for the Cardinals here, but I think they could continue to work towards addressing their defense by taking Avril here, hoping he can be a difference maker at linebacker.
51. Washington Redskins: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Who would have thought a few months ago that the Redskins could get a receiver like Kelly in the second round? The Oklahoma weapon has slipped due to injury issues and poor workouts, but he’d be a quality pick for Washington here.
52. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
I’ve heard some Bucs fans talk about how Tampa really likes what they see in Florida’s Andre Caldwell. If he’s still on the board for them here, it would seem to me to be a no-brainer selection as they add youth to a questionable receiving corps.
53. Pittsburgh Steelers: Curtis Lofton, LB, Oklahoma
After improving their offensive line in the first round, the Steelers switch it up and go defense here. Lofton is a thumper who could eventually replace the aging James Farrior on the inside of Pittsburgh’s 3-4 defensive alignment.
54. Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina
LenDale White was a capable starter for the Titans, but they’d like to have someone to pair him with. They drafted Chris Henry last year, but he didn’t show much in limited time. East Carolina’s Chris Johnson may be too good to pass up here.
55. Seattle Seahawks: Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
Another team who finds a guy in the second round that some felt could have been their first round selection. Seattle could certainly use the help at tight end, after having to start Marcus Pollard at the position last season.
56. Green Bay Packers (f/CLE): Fred Davis, TE, USC
The Packers found a keeper in Donald Lee and promptly signed him to an extension. But there’s not much to speak of behind him, so Green Bay could elect to add to their depth by taking Davis here.
57. Miami Dolphins (f/SD): Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
After going offense with their first two picks, the Dolphins turn their attention to the defensive side of the ball. Cornerback is definitely an area of concern for Miami, and Lee is arguably the best one available.
58. Jacksonville Jaguars: Tyrell Johnson, SS, Arkansas State
Finding Johnson here would be exceptionally good value for the Jags, as it seems Johnson is really rising up some draft boards, so much so that he could be in contention to be a late first or early second round pick.
59. Indianapolis Colts: Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
The Colts are officially on the clock for the first time in this year’s draft! They could go a number of directions with this pick, but I think a talented linebacker like Miami’s Gooden would be a pretty good option for their defense.
60. Cincinnati Bengals (f/GB): Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
After missing out on one of the elite tackles in the first round, look for Cincinnati to come back fairly quickly to find a big body to plug in on the inside. At 6’4” and 305 pounds, Maryland’s Dre Moore could be just that guy.
61. Dallas Cowboys: Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa
Dallas didn’t get a chance to take a corner in the first round. Even if they elect to trade for Pacman Jones, they should probably try to find some additional young talent in the draft. Charles Godfrey could be that player.
62. New England Patriots: Tyvon Branch, CB, Connecticut
The Patriots traded down in the first round but still elected to improve their defensive front seven. They likely can’t ignore their needs in the secondary for much longer. Tyvon Branch is a defender that’s gaining some steam as the draft nears.
63. New York Giants: Xavier Adibi, LB, Virginia Tech
New York lost Kawika Mitchell and Reggie Torbor to free agency. Though they acquired Danny Clark, they could still use some talent at linebacker, especially if they opt to move Mathias Kiwanuka back to defensive end.
