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Thread: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Trading down is certainly possible, but I typically don't try to project trades as part of my mocks. It throws a whole other wrench into the projection at which point anything is possible.

    My preference is that, if the Rams don't find a way to bring back SJ, they add another veteran running back to be part of the committee. I don't know if they'd look to use a high pick on one with Pead and Richardson in the mix. Maybe a Day Three pick if they haven't addressed it, I suppose.

    As for Dahl, he ranked as the 12th best RG in the league last year. He's signed for two more years at a moderate salary. I wouldn't cut him at this point. Maybe wait and see how he plays the next two years, and if there's a concern about him trending downwards, just let him walk.




    Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if Jordan does skyrocket due to workouts. Guy is a heck of an athlete IMO.




    I'm going to sum up your response in one sentence: "We can address that position later." The truth of the matter is you never know when you can address a position, because you don't know what's going to be available.

    If your argument is that the Rams can wait until the third or fourth round to find a guard, then I'd have to wonder if that player is that much of an improvement over Watkins to even be worth it. Smith and Williams shouldn't even be mentioned in the discussion at OG. We got a look at them, and they stunk, not to mention Williams is a free agent. If you want to hold off on addressing OLB until much later, that's fine; you just have to accept the fact that your nickel LB is probably going to be Dunbar, who was great in some areas but awful in coverage last year. None of these guys are so great that they can't be improved upon, if an upgrade is available.

    My approach is this - if you have a need at a position, and you are staring at an outstanding prospect at that position while you're on the clock, you make the selection, even if it isn't your biggest need, provided there isn't a better value at a bigger position of need on the board.

    That's probably a bit wordy and convoluted, so let me elaborate. You have to look at value and who is available. Safety is a bigger need on defense than LB, but the value on the board in this scenario is at LB so I think that should be the pick in this situation. OG might not be as big of a need as RT or WR, but the value on the board is at OG in this scenario, so I think that's the right pick.

    Factoring in trades may change that, and allow the Rams to move down and go after better value at those higher positions of need, but if they stay put, I think they have to stick with the value on the board, even if that prospect doesn't address their biggest need.

    Handcuffing yourself into saying "These are the positions we should address in these rounds" is a good way to get fired as a GM. You just can't do it. Maybe in the back of your mind, those are the positions you're looking for, but you have to be willing to deviate from that if the value and the available prospects aren't falling the way you'd prefer. If you want to look for, say, an OT/OG, FS, WR in the first three rounds, go for it. But if the value isn't there, you can't force it. That's a great way to ruin a team.

    I would rather this team take high value prospects at slightly lower positions of need than reach for lesser value prospects to try and fill bigger needs.

    As for Miami, I think Jennings there makes a lot of sense. But even if they add Jennings, they don't have much else, especially if Hartline leaves in free agency. I'd also point out that my description of Allen specifically said, "I'm not convinced Keenan Allen is the best WR prospect in this class, nor am I convinced any WR comes off the board this high."
    If your argument is that the Rams can wait until the third or fourth round to find a guard. not my position. I say take one within the first four picks. If Chance Warmack is there I'd take him at 16.

    Using your board I would consider, D.J. Fluker, OT or Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahomaat at 22 as well.

    In the second round we could draft Dallas Thomas, OT/G, Tennessee... Larry Warford, G, Kentucky. There will be some guys that are upgrades we could have a real shot at.

    I'm not a big fan of drafting a guard in the first round unless he's special.


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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    If your argument is that the Rams can wait until the third or fourth round to find a guard. not my position. I say take one within the first four picks.
    But if I'm not mistaken, one of those first four Rams picks is a third rounder, which I guess makes my statement ("If your argument is that the Rams can wait until the third or fourth round to find a guard") half right.


    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    Using your board I would consider, D.J. Fluker, OT or Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahomaat at 22 as well.
    In my mock, Fluker was taken @ 20 by the Bears. I've said before I feel, at this point in time, Cooper is a better value than Johnson. We'll see if that changes as the process goes on the next couple months.


    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    In the second round we could draft Dallas Thomas, OT/G, Tennessee... Larry Warford, G, Kentucky. There will be some guys that are upgrades we could have a real shot at.
    Yes, the Rams could do that... if those players are available when the Rams are back on the clock. That's the gamble - take a guy who is among the best available prospects while you're on the clock @ 22, or pass on him and roll the dice on someone being there later.

    The only way I can understand passing on Cooper is if there's someone available whom you feel carries a better grade and also plays at a position of need. IMO, there isn't. As I've stated, at this point in time, I rate Cooper as a better prospect than Terrence Williams, Lane Johnson, or either of the top two tight ends.

    So I'm not going to pass on better value to take a lesser prospect just because of larger need. If you view Johnson or Williams or one of the tight ends as having a higher grade than Cooper, then I can understand that reasoning for wanting them a lot more than bypassing Cooper simply because you're willing to gamble that the position can be addressed in the next round or two with other prospects that are not at all guaranteed to be there.


    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    I'm not a big fan of drafting a guard in the first round unless he's special.
    You're welcome to that opinion, but it doesn't seem as if the NFL agrees with you.

    In each of the last four drafts, an offensive guard who was not considered an elite, once-in-a-decade talent was taken in the latter half of the first round: Kevin Zeitler (27th in 2012), Danny Watkins (23rd in 2011), Mike Iupati (17th in 2010), and Eric Wood (28th in 2009; listed as a center but the Bills viewed him as a guard).

    The league seems to think there is a value in first round guards, especially in the latter half of the first round, even if they aren't among the elite.

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Since most people here are probably more interested in a Rams only mock, here is one of many scenarios for how the rest of this draft could shape up...

    1.16: Dion Jordan, LB, Oregon
    -Versatile hybrid defender who can line up all over the field in multiple packages.

    1.22: Jonathan Cooper, OG, North carolina
    -Smooth interior lineman who displays great balance and ability to get to the second level.

    2.46: Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech
    -Like Janoris Jenkins a year ago, the Rams may take a risk on a player with off the field baggage but loads of talent.

    3.78: T.J. McDonald, S, USC
    -A well rounded safety with great size and excellent NFL bloodlines.

    4.110: Rick Wagner, OT, Wisconsin
    -Wagner boasts a powerful upper body and could be a solid starter on the right side when coached up.

    5.142: Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M
    -Productive goalline 'back who could be a nice part of a RB rotation.

    6.174: Brandon McGee, CB, Miami
    -Hasn't lived up to his physical ability but worth a late round flier due to the tools.

    7.206: Gilbert Pena, DT, Mississippi
    -Big nose guard who is surprisingly well conditioned and quick on his feet.
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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    7.206: Gilbert Pena, DT, Mississippi -Big nose guard who is surprisingly well conditioned and quick on his feet.
    Nick, I'm not sure what the size of this kid's nose has to do with anything, and frankly, I'm a little disappointed that you would be so shallow as to judge this kid on his looks.
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    I really like the picks. And I'm all for Cooper in this scenario. I have it a little different in my mock I'll post that later in the week.

    Thing is about the Lane Johnson discussion he scares the hell out of me. He's the type of player we went after in the past. The moved around different positions high ceiling prospect. Thing is and this is purely on gut feeling these types don't seem to pan out on the Oline. Somehow they never gain that weight, muscle build or use those quick feet, kneebend etc.

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Just a few things id like to say:

    The #1 and #4 picks can easily be flipped if Chip Kelly likes Vick and Reid wants his QB at the top but we dont know that yet so it looks good for now...No I really dont think Foles will be Kelly's QB

    The Cardinals just got an offensive minded coach in Bruce Arians and as a Rams fan we know just how easily it was to overmatch that offense wouldn't it make sense for them to take an offensive lineman early; also there is a kid named Mike Glennon who as the size and the arm strength to shoot up a draft board...I know his stock isnt there now but do you think there is a possibility with the Cards QB situation and QB talent in this draft that Glennon is picked at 7 if the Cards dont trade down?

    Also the Jets pick....I live in NJ and watch the Jets enough to understand they are god awful on offense they can use an upgrade at TE, maybe a WR depending on what happens to holmes, RT, and obviously QB...Sanchez just got paid so a 1st round QB might not be an option but I think they really need some top end talent on offense...And on Defense i dont think the pass rush situation is that dire when Reeves returns...a couple years back their defenders would record so many "coverage" sacks when that secondary is healthy the need for pass rushers is not dire...

    I'd like to say I love the Cooper pick; but am not a fan of the Jordan pick however I read plenty of what your wrote about him so it makes sense...But the biggest head scratcher is the Saints...This might be mainly because i dont know much about Ansah but why would the saints and Spags pass up Dion Jordan for Ansah that defense needs plenty up help on defense and Jordan is so much more versatile

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Since most people here are probably more interested in a Rams only mock, here is one of many scenarios for how the rest of this draft could shape up...

    4.110: Rick Wagner, OT, Wisconsin
    -Wagner boasts a powerful upper body and could be a solid starter on the right side when coached up.
    Well, well....we talked about Wagner last week and I'm glad to see someone other than myself sees value in him. I agree with your assessment that his value has dropped and his technique needs some coaching, but I like his work at Wisconsin blocking for Montee Ball and as you pointed out he has some experience playing RT prior to Carimi going pro. I will admit that I'm surprised you see him lasting into the 4th round.

    After some thought about your first pick for us, Dion Jordan, I like his versatility since we'll have to defend C. Kaepernick and R. Wilson and their read option skills for 1/4 of our schedule in years to come. Good choice, but much evaluation yet to come.

    Go Rams!

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    Nick, I'm not sure what the size of this kid's nose has to do with anything, and frankly, I'm a little disappointed that you would be so shallow as to judge this kid on his looks.
    You know what they say about football players with big noses.... they have trouble fitting into their helmets.


    Quote Originally Posted by Rammed View Post
    I really like the picks. And I'm all for Cooper in this scenario. I have it a little different in my mock I'll post that later in the week.

    Thing is about the Lane Johnson discussion he scares the hell out of me. He's the type of player we went after in the past. The moved around different positions high ceiling prospect. Thing is and this is purely on gut feeling these types don't seem to pan out on the Oline. Somehow they never gain that weight, muscle build or use those quick feet, kneebend etc.
    Johnson is a raw guy who could really be molded by this coaching staff and taught pro technique. I'm not necessarily opposed to him, but after Jason Smith, I'm a bit leery of the "raw but talented fast rising former tight end now offensive tackle" type. Maybe that's not fair to Johnson, but it is what it is. Depending on how the board fell, he certainly could be an option for the Rams in round one.


    Quote Originally Posted by BarronWade View Post
    Just a few things id like to say:

    The #1 and #4 picks can easily be flipped if Chip Kelly likes Vick and Reid wants his QB at the top but we dont know that yet so it looks good for now...No I really dont think Foles will be Kelly's QB
    True, though I've heard from more than a few Eagles fans that think they don't need Joeckel.


    Quote Originally Posted by BarronWade View Post
    The Cardinals just got an offensive minded coach in Bruce Arians and as a Rams fan we know just how easily it was to overmatch that offense wouldn't it make sense for them to take an offensive lineman early; also there is a kid named Mike Glennon who as the size and the arm strength to shoot up a draft board...I know his stock isnt there now but do you think there is a possibility with the Cards QB situation and QB talent in this draft that Glennon is picked at 7 if the Cards dont trade down?

    Also the Jets pick....I live in NJ and watch the Jets enough to understand they are god awful on offense they can use an upgrade at TE, maybe a WR depending on what happens to holmes, RT, and obviously QB...Sanchez just got paid so a 1st round QB might not be an option but I think they really need some top end talent on offense...And on Defense i dont think the pass rush situation is that dire when Reeves returns...a couple years back their defenders would record so many "coverage" sacks when that secondary is healthy the need for pass rushers is not dire...
    I'm a bit cautious about projecting other quarterbacks a bit too high. There are some that would argue I have Geno and Barkley too high at this point. I'll wait and see how the process goes, but it wouldn't surprise me to see others up in the first round, even in the Top 15. My approach is, if Gabbert and Ponder can get selected in the Top 12, anything goes.


    Quote Originally Posted by BarronWade View Post
    I'd like to say I love the Cooper pick; but am not a fan of the Jordan pick however I read plenty of what your wrote about him so it makes sense...But the biggest head scratcher is the Saints...This might be mainly because i dont know much about Ansah but why would the saints and Spags pass up Dion Jordan for Ansah that defense needs plenty up help on defense and Jordan is so much more versatile
    That's a good point, but I personally think their preference would be for more of an every down DE to replace Will Smith.


    Quote Originally Posted by mde8352gorams View Post
    Well, well....we talked about Wagner last week and I'm glad to see someone other than myself sees value in him. I agree with your assessment that his value has dropped and his technique needs some coaching, but I like his work at Wisconsin blocking for Montee Ball and as you pointed out he has some experience playing RT prior to Carimi going pro. I will admit that I'm surprised you see him lasting into the 4th round.

    After some thought about your first pick for us, Dion Jordan, I like his versatility since we'll have to defend C. Kaepernick and R. Wilson and their read option skills for 1/4 of our schedule in years to come. Good choice, but much evaluation yet to come.

    Go Rams!
    Yep, I figured you'd like the Wagner pick!

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Nick

    You're welcome to that opinion, but it doesn't seem as if the NFL agrees with you.

    In each of the last four drafts, an offensive guard who was not considered an elite, once-in-a-decade talent was taken in the latter half of the first round: Kevin Zeitler (27th in 2012), Danny Watkins (23rd in 2011), Mike Iupati (17th in 2010), and Eric Wood (28th in 2009; listed as a center but the Bills viewed him as a guard).

    The league seems to think there is a value in first round guards, especially in the latter half of the first round, even if they aren't among the elite.
    Good points, I'm taking it in.... but to say "You're welcome to that opinion, but it doesn't seem as if the NFL agrees with you."

    I would say the numbers do agree with me. In the last four drafts from the data you provided it would suggest they do. In four draft 128 players where drafted a little over three percent where guards.

    Four years is really not a large enough sample size, I found a study of a longer period of time 10 years. (to lazy to to the work myself)

    History provides a better and more consistent guide.

    Here, for example, is a look at how often each position has been selected in the first round of the 10 drafts (1996-2005).

    Position

    No. 1 Picks
    Wide receiver

    45
    Defensive end

    43
    Cornerback

    41
    Tackle

    34
    Linebacker

    31
    Running back

    29
    Defensive tackle

    25
    Quarterback

    24
    Tight end

    13
    Safety

    12
    Guard


    10
    Center

    3
    Kicker

    1


    While the true football aficionado relishes interior line play and the reassuring impact of a hard-hitting safety, NFL management does not hold these positions in the same esteem. If management did covet these positions, it only stands to reason that they'd devote more first-round draft picks to them. But safeties, guards and centers are the least frequently selected first-round positional players..

    Also here is a conversation that took place last year discussing drafting a Guard in the first round.

    A conversation last year with Gil Brandt about taking guard DeCastro. I don't know if there is a right or wrong way, I subscribe to this way of thinking and I'm not alone.

    My good friend Gil Brandt and I talked about taking a guard in the first round. As he pointed out, it isn't the guard you are taking but rather the guy you will be passing up at a franchise position like pass rusher or cornerback that makes it tough to take the guard. His point was: The pass rusher or corner you see in the second round might be much worse than the guard you will see in the second round. It's the value of the pick and the big picture that comes into play when considering a player like DeCastro.
    The only way I can understand passing on Cooper is if there's someone available whom you feel carries a better grade and also plays at a position of need. IMO, there isn't. As I've stated, at this point in time, I rate Cooper as a better prospect than Terrence Williams, Lane Johnson, or either of the top two tight ends.
    From what I have read and tend to believe. On draft day a team will have a cluster of players that they are ready to draft in every RD. I can't say that Brockers was the highest graded player still on the Rams board when we took him. I think the selection is made with a combination of a players grade and need. That said you have to keep that range tight. You can't reach and take a player because of need. I would find it hard to believe the grade value in the back half of the first round would have a large discrepancy unless an elite talent slipped like a Manti Teo because of his off field issues.

    Being a casual fan I would say I tend to draft by need over the grade, heck I don't even have a grading system. I tend to let a guy like you set the board then I come in and tell you what I would do. If you say a guy will be taken in the second half of the first round whom am I to argue that fact, I will just cluster that group and draft by need.
    Last edited by Rambos; -01-19-2013 at 04:46 PM.

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    Good points, I'm taking it in.... but to say "You're welcome to that opinion, but it doesn't seem as if the NFL agrees with you."

    I would say the numbers do agree with me. In the last four drafts from the data you provided it would suggest they do. In four draft 128 players where drafted a little over three percent where guards.

    Four years is really not a large enough sample size, I found a study of a longer period of time 10 years. (to lazy to to the work myself)




    Also here is a conversation that took place last year discussing drafting a Guard in the first round.

    A conversation last year with Gil Brandt about taking guard DeCastro. I don't know if there is a right or wrong way, I subscribe to this way of thinking and I'm not alone.





    From what I have read and tend to believe. On draft day a team will have a cluster of players that they are ready to draft in every RD. I can't say that Brockers was the highest graded player still on the Rams board when we took him. I think the selection is made with a combination of a players grade and need. That said you have to keep that range tight. You can't reach and take a player because of need. I would find it hard to believe the grade value in the back half of the first round would have a large discrepancy unless an elite talent slipped like a Manti Teo because of his off field issues.

    Being a casual fan I would say I tend to draft by need over the grade, heck I don't even have a grading system. I tend to let a guy like you set the board then I come in and tell you what I would do. If you say a guy will be taken in the second half of the first round whom am I to argue that fact, I will just cluster that group and draft by need.
    All about BPA. Dont care what position is what. If Warmack is the best rated prospect in the draft (which many think he is) then he is worth every pick from 1-32. I'd take Warmack at 16 because he is the best prospect remaining, and the best part is that its also a need.

    You need 45 guys on gameday to succeed in this league. Most of the time people draft busts because they have the mindset "Oh so many CB's are going to be taken so we have to land this guy here"... Believe in your draft board and roll with it.


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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    All about BPA. Dont care what position is what. If Warmack is the best rated prospect in the draft (which many think he is) then he is worth every pick from 1-32. I'd take Warmack at 16 because he is the best prospect remaining, and the best part is that its also a need.

    You need 45 guys on gameday to succeed in this league. Most of the time people draft busts because they have the mindset "Oh so many CB's are going to be taken so we have to land this guy here"... Believe in your draft board and roll with it.
    Really so if a QB is the best graded player on the board at 16 you take him? Just not that simple ... and I would take Warmack as well as I have already stated.

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    Really so if a QB is the best graded player on the board at 16 you take him? Just not that simple ... and I would take Warmack as well as I have already stated.
    If I dont have a QB, then yes.


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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    If I dont have a QB, then yes.
    All about BPA. Dont care what position is what.... so only if the payer is the BPA and is a need? That's that hardest part IMO. We are set at CB but at 16 if the BPA is a CB do you pass and draft by BPA of need.... also known as could be a reach. That is the hard part IMO.

    I look at it like this, you cluster your needs and have more then one option, if you get to your pick and the player that is on the board is not a need but has the highest grade you try and move back. If you can't move back your in a tough spot.

    In Nick case he has a higher grade on a player of need then I do, that said I don't have grades, just using his cluster. The thing about Nick pick at 16 which makes it even harder for me is it's the least of our needs as I see it, it's still a need but not the highest on my wish list.
    Last edited by Rambos; -01-19-2013 at 06:02 PM.

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    Good points, I'm taking it in.... but to say "You're welcome to that opinion, but it doesn't seem as if the NFL agrees with you."

    I would say the numbers do agree with me. In the last four drafts from the data you provided it would suggest they do. In four draft 128 players where drafted a little over three percent where guards.

    Four years is really not a large enough sample size, I found a study of a longer period of time 10 years. (to lazy to to the work myself)
    Not going to agree here. Your comment was, "I'm not a big fan of drafting a guard in the first round unless he's special." I provided four very recent examples of NFL teams who disagreed and drafted guards in the first round who weren't viewed as special.

    I appreciate you going out to try and find some supporting information for your position, but I don't think drafts from 8-17 years ago are a very good indication of the mindset of today's league.

    Heck, you could make an argument that drafts before the rookie wage scale aren't as applicable as you'd think, since the financing has completely changed.


    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    Also here is a conversation that took place last year discussing drafting a Guard in the first round.

    A conversation last year with Gil Brandt about taking guard DeCastro. I don't know if there is a right or wrong way, I subscribe to this way of thinking and I'm not alone.
    And yet in Brandt's January 15th mock for this upcoming draft, he has Chance Warmack going 4th overall to Philadelphia. FOURTH! The two next picks were a cornerback and a pass rusher, so I guess even Brandt understands that sometimes a guard can be the best value on the board, even over other more traditional "impact" positions.


    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    From what I have read and tend to believe. On draft day a team will have a cluster of players that they are ready to draft in every RD. I can't say that Brockers was the highest graded player still on the Rams board when we took him. I think the selection is made with a combination of a players grade and need. That said you have to keep that range tight. You can't reach and take a player because of need. I would find it hard to believe the grade value in the back half of the first round would have a large discrepancy unless an elite talent slipped like a Manti Teo because of his off field issues.
    And that's exactly what I did with Cooper - made the selection that I felt was the best combination of value and need. At that point, Cooper carried a higher value for me than Williams, Johnson, or the tight ends, and I view OG as one of this team's priority needs.

    I'm sorry that you disagree with the pick, but I think I've provided more than enough explanation as to why I made it. If you still disagree, well, you're welcome to that opinion, but I think any further back and forth about it is simply going to further get this thread off track.

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    Re: Nick's Post-Underclassmen First Round Mock Draft

    If Warmack isn't there at 16 and all the big names (Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, etc.) are off the board I say the Rams try to trade down to collect an additional 2nd round pick; hell, I'd even trade down from both 1st round picks if other teams were willing to trade up. Lets say the Rams traded down from both picks (and collected extra 2nd rounders in the process) and ended up with two 1st round picks in the 23-32 range. There would still be great talent available, maybe a Tavon Austin, Matt Elam, or Zach Ertz are available at those spots.

    We then would have three picks in the 2nd round to play with to help fill holes at WR/Safety/OLB/OL. I wouldn't even mind drafting a RB with one of those picks, especially if Eddie Lacy or Giovani Bernard are available. Margus Hunt, DeAndre Hopkins, Lane Johnson, Da'Rick Rogers, Barrett Jones... all are good prospects that should be available in the 2nd round. I personally love Margus Hunt; he's still raw and learning the game but he's an extremely quick, tall (6-8) and athletic pass rushing DT who would complement the run-stopping Brockers nicely. If there's any DL coach who can unlock his potential its Mike Waufle. Could you imagine a Robert Quinn-Margus Hunt-Michael Brockers-Chris Long defensive line... it would be like the Fearsome Foursome all over again.

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