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  1. #16
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Afterall the advisory comittee is so much more educated than Kiper and Mcshay because they correctly pointed out where Ryan Leaf,Jamarcus Russel,Alex Smith,Joe Montana,Tom Brady and Andre Ware should be drafted. Because of the accuracy of the advisory comittee many NFL team passed on guys like Kurt Warner,Tom Brady and Joe Montana and instead drafted guys like Andre Ware,Akilli Smith,David Klingler, and Alex Smith because they actually nail spot on every qb prospect. It's laughable that this NFL source would even bash Mcshay when even NFL teams have no idea who will or won't be good it's a crapshoot. All you can do is hope your guy is a Drew Brees or Peyton Manning and not a Ryan Leaf or Andre Ware.

    Just Fix It

  2. #17
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Quote Originally Posted by rammiser View Post
    Afterall the advisory comittee is so much more educated than Kiper and Mcshay because they correctly pointed out where Ryan Leaf,Jamarcus Russel,Alex Smith,Joe Montana,Tom Brady and Andre Ware should be drafted. Because of the accuracy of the advisory comittee many NFL team passed on guys like Kurt Warner,Tom Brady and Joe Montana and instead drafted guys like Andre Ware,Akilli Smith,David Klingler, and Alex Smith because they actually nail spot on every qb prospect. It's laughable that this NFL source would even bash Mcshay when even NFL teams have no idea who will or won't be good it's a crapshoot. All you can do is hope your guy is a Drew Brees or Peyton Manning and not a Ryan Leaf or Andre Ware.
    All you can do is hope?

  3. #18
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    What is so trivial about that? The teams do all the interviews and research and studying of these players, what else is left? What's left is you can hope the guy is what you think he is. You hope he is that Drew Brees and you hope he's not Jamarcus Russell.

    My point which you seemed to miss completely was that this advisory committee is no better at pointing out talent than Mcshay or Kiper because of how many teams miss on guys in the draft. If this comittee was so good Kurt Warner would have been drafted. Tom Brady would have gone in the 1st round instead of the 6th round. In the famous words of Forrest Gump the draft is like a box of chocolates. The outer shell looks great and seems like everything you want it to be then you take a bite and it leaves this bitter taste in your mouth. Well Alex Smith seemed like a franchise qb and then the Niners lay a big fat contract on him and he isnt what they thought he was.

    The draft is nothing more than a crapshoot otherwise teams would not miss on any player because of how fast or how high he could jump. They wouldnt say Chris Carter was too slow or Jerry Rice wasnt fast enough. They wouldnt say Sam Mills was too small to play linebacker. Even these NFL teams have no idea what they are really getting out of their draft picks. Sure some teams are better than others but they all miss on guys every year.
    Just Fix It

  4. #19
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Quote Originally Posted by rammiser View Post
    What is so trivial about that? The teams do all the interviews and research and studying of these players, what else is left? What's left is you can hope the guy is what you think he is. You hope he is that Drew Brees and you hope he's not Jamarcus Russell.

    My point which you seemed to miss completely was that this advisory committee is no better at pointing out talent than Mcshay or Kiper because of how many teams miss on guys in the draft. If this comittee was so good Kurt Warner would have been drafted. Tom Brady would have gone in the 1st round instead of the 6th round. In the famous words of Forrest Gump the draft is like a box of chocolates. The outer shell looks great and seems like everything you want it to be then you take a bite and it leaves this bitter taste in your mouth. Well Alex Smith seemed like a franchise qb and then the Niners lay a big fat contract on him and he isnt what they thought he was.

    The draft is nothing more than a crapshoot otherwise teams would not miss on any player because of how fast or how high he could jump. They wouldnt say Chris Carter was too slow or Jerry Rice wasnt fast enough. They wouldnt say Sam Mills was too small to play linebacker. Even these NFL teams have no idea what they are really getting out of their draft picks. Sure some teams are better than others but they all miss on guys every year.
    Just because scouting isn't perfect doesn't mean scouting isn't useful or that it's nothing more than a crapshoot. Yes several players play better than expected and many play worse, but that does not mean every single evaluation is equally good. Some people are more consistently correct in their evaluations than others. McShay is not one of those people. Nothing in life is certain except death and taxes, but that doesn't mean we have to stumble through life acting like every possibility is equally likely.

    Put another way, if scouts tend to put Locker as a 2nd round pick and McShay has him going #1 overall, my strong intuition is that Locker will A) be drafted closer to the 2nd round than #1 overall, and B) that he will most likely play closer to what you expect from a 2nd round pick than somebody taken #1 overall.

  5. #20
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Quote Originally Posted by rammiser View Post
    My point which you seemed to miss completely was that this advisory committee is no better at pointing out talent than Mcshay or Kiper because of how many teams miss on guys in the draft. If this comittee was so good Kurt Warner would have been drafted. Tom Brady would have gone in the 1st round instead of the 6th round. In the famous words of Forrest Gump the draft is like a box of chocolates. The outer shell looks great and seems like everything you want it to be then you take a bite and it leaves this bitter taste in your mouth. Well Alex Smith seemed like a franchise qb and then the Niners lay a big fat contract on him and he isnt what they thought he was.

    The draft is nothing more than a crapshoot otherwise teams would not miss on any player because of how fast or how high he could jump. They wouldnt say Chris Carter was too slow or Jerry Rice wasnt fast enough. They wouldnt say Sam Mills was too small to play linebacker. Even these NFL teams have no idea what they are really getting out of their draft picks. Sure some teams are better than others but they all miss on guys every year.
    How do you know I missed anything (let alone completely)? All I commented on was the hope part.

    If all a team can do to develop talent is HOPE, why do they hire coaches?

  6. #21
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_Weasel View Post
    Put another way, if scouts tend to put Locker as a 2nd round pick and McShay has him going #1 overall, my strong intuition is that Locker will A) be drafted closer to the 2nd round than #1 overall, and B) that he will most likely play closer to what you expect from a 2nd round pick than somebody taken #1 overall.
    The article doesn't say that NFL scouts put Locker in the second round range. It said the NFL Collegiate Advisory Committee did, according to a "league source."

    And if the report is accurate (a legit question given that it's a PFT article that simply cites an unnamed source), they likely did so to avoid the exact situation the "source" criticizes McShay about - pumping up a prospects expectations only for him to slip and be let down. This is why the committee is generally said to be conservative with their projections.

    Consider that the committee gave Vernon Gholston a second round projection and Jerod Mayo a late 2nd early 3rd round projection. That didn't stop either of them from going in the top ten in 2008, so a second round projection for Jake Locker doesn't exactly mean he wouldn't have been a first round pick had he come out.

    As much as the article bashes McShay (it reads more like a hit piece against him than a piece about Locker's stock), he definitely wasn't the only one who thought Locker had a chance to go early in the 2010 draft.

  7. #22
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Nick,

    I was responding to rammiser's claim that the draft is nothing more than a crap shoot, specifically this quote:

    The draft is nothing more than a crapshoot otherwise teams would not miss on any player because of how fast or how high he could jump.
    My entire post is basically about that one statement, I didn't even mention the NFL CAC once. I quoted the entire post because the idea that scouting is useful only if it's perfect runs throughout.

  8. #23
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Where did I say scouting wasnt useful? I am simply stating that what is the difference between Mcshay's scouting opinion and and NFL scouts opinion? They both probably do just about the same amount of research on these players. I said after all the scouting and research it's still a crapshoot. You think your getting a good solid player but you dont know this for sure. How is that not a crapshoot? Someone actually thought Leaf was more of a franchise qb than Manning.

    I never said that anything was a sure thing. Thats why I said crapshoot and box of chocolates because you don't really know what your getting. Every case isnt the same and neither is every roll of the dice in craps. You could be getting a great player like S-Jax. You could be getting a great talent like Pac man Jones but his character is flawed. Or you could flat out miss no matter how much scouting you do. So thats not a crapshoot? Scouting is important as far as projecting where these kids belong or may go but that's flawed to. So flawed that many great players come out of the lower rounds. It's like a job interview, Tim Tebow is great at interviewingfor a job and probably pumped up his draft status even though he may not be a very good qb ever. What did teams miss on Kurt Warner,Terell Davis,Joe Montana?

    I also did not say coaching wasnt neccessary did I? For one thing a player either has it or he doesnt. A coach is there to bring that little extra out of players and tweak a thing here or there. Trent Dilfer didnt have it Peyton Manning did. Coaches tried to tweak things to help Dilfer and realized all he could do is try not to lose the game for you.

    I'm not really defending Mcshay or Kiper but how do you know their scouting is not equally good have you researched it? Have you gone back and looked at their past projections and prediction compared to NFL teams picks? You make a blanket statement and agree with the NFL scout like it's a fact without really knowing for sure. So what would you call the scouting process and draft if not a crapshoot.
    Just Fix It

  9. #24
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    You said all you can do is hope. If scouting and coaching are factors, it's more than just hope isn't it?

    Simply stating that there is a difference betwen McShay's opinion and NFL scouts opinion? Duh? The entire point of the OP was that McShay is a reporter, nothing more. How much actual scouting does he do? What's his background in football?

    In January McShay and Kiper were discussing Tebow. McShay said he would never be better than a bad backup in the NFL but had him rated as a first round talent. Kiper even called him on it on ESPN.

  10. #25
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Quote Originally Posted by RebelYell View Post
    You said all you can do is hope. If scouting and coaching are factors, it's more than just hope isn't it?

    Simply stating that there is a difference betwen McShay's opinion and NFL scouts opinion? Duh? The entire point of the OP was that McShay is a reporter, nothing more. How much actual scouting does he do? What's his background in football?

    In January McShay and Kiper were discussing Tebow. McShay said he would never be better than a bad backup in the NFL but had him rated as a first round talent. Kiper even called him on it on ESPN.
    Do I have to spell it out for you? I said after all the scouting and research you can only hope your right about a guy. That means after teams have done all this research and they have narrowed it down to the guy they think is the guy, all they have to rely on is hope isnt it. They hope they have done all the studying on a guy and that he is what they hope and what they have scouted him out to be. I mean I'm sure the Chargers hoped Ryan Leaf was going to be better than Manning. I'm sure the Chargers figured after all the scouting they did on Leaf they hoped it would pay off when they drafted him. When I do hard work and dedicate myself to something I hope it pays off.

    So now you have to have an NFL background to scout college players? Also I didnt say I was stating that there is a difference in Mcshay and a scouts opinion. I said there isnt much of a difference. Mcshay is watching and anylizing players just like NFL scouts do. Are you telling me every NFL scout is more informed and does better research and spots talents better than anyone not doing their job? I would find that highly unlikely. I'm not defending Mcshay but why bash the guy when the track records of NFL scouts themselves are not even close to being great?

    Also a lot of people have stated Tebow has first round NFL talent but not 1st round NFL quarterback talent. Mcshay is not the only guy I have heard say this. Herman Edwards said the same thing on the Colin Cowherd show. So I guess Herm Edwards doesnt know anything about college players either since he pretty much agrees with Mcshay about Tebow.
    Just Fix It

  11. #26
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Quote Originally Posted by rammiser View Post
    I am simply stating that what is the difference between Mcshay's scouting opinion and and NFL scouts opinion? .
    One is a trained journalist. One has been trained for years in the fundamentals of playing football and often coaching so they can see flaws and mistakes others don't see. If you can't see that there is a difference, this discussion is worthless.

  12. #27
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Quote Originally Posted by RebelYell View Post
    One is a trained journalist. One has been trained for years in the fundamentals of playing football and often coaching so they can see flaws and mistakes others don't see. If you can't see that there is a difference, this discussion is worthless.
    To throw my two cents into this little banter, here is a little bio on Todd McShay I found at ESPN...

    Todd McShay
    DIRECTOR, COLLEGE FOOTBALL SCOUTING, ESPN SCOUTS INC., FOOTBALL ANALYST

    Todd McShay joined ESPN in 2006 as a football analyst, providing in-depth scouting information on college football players across the country, including the nation’s top NFL Draft prospects. McShay is a year-round contributor across ESPN’s multiple platforms, including SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, ESPN.com, ESPN The Magazine, ESPNU and ESPNEWS.


    McShay is the director of college football scouting for ESPN Scouts Inc., where he has been evaluating prospects for the NFL Draft since 1998, during which time numerous NFL teams have utilized his reports. In 2009, McShay joined the main telecast of ESPN’s NFL Draft coverage, using Magic Board technology, analysis and debate talk-backs from ESPN’s Bristol, Conn.,studios, to Radio City Music Hall in New York City. McShay has been part of ESPN’s NFL Draft telecasts since 2006 providing analysis on SportsCenter and ESPNEWS.



    Prior to joining ESPN, McShay worked full-time for “The War Room,” (1999-2006) a start-up scouting publication created by former NFL scout Gary Horton. It soon became a go-to source of information for 16 NFL scouting departments and became a crosscheck for CBS and The Sporting News. ESPN purchased the business in 2006 and changed the name to Scouts Inc.



    McShay interned for Horton in the summer of 1998, after getting his first taste of college scouting and recruitment when he “cut film” for the University of Richmond coaching staff.



    Before becoming one of the nation’s top NFL Draft analysts, McShay was the quarterback for the Swampscott (Mass.) High School football team (1991-94), and he was a backup quarterback for the University of Richmond (1995-97) before sustaining a back injury that ended his college career.



    A native of Swampscott, Mass., McShay graduated from the University of Richmond in 1999 with a bachelors of arts in leadership studies (Jepson School of Leadership). He supports the American Heart Association, American Cancer Society and National Parkinson’s Foundation, as well as an active member of Mike Gottfried’s Team Focus.
    Maybe McShay isn't the most reliable source, but to state he is only trained as a journalist and has no scouting experience is simply not true. He has worked with and under several scouts, it is entirlely plausible that he has similar opinions and viewpoints as them.


    Also, while I hate butting in, I believe what rammiser was implying when he said "all you can do is hope" is that sometimes the scouting doesn't give you all the info. No one knew that Alex Smith was going to be a bust at the time, all the scouts said he would be a great QB in the NFL. Sometimes stuff happens, their is no exact science to the draft, which is partly what makes it so enthralling.

  13. #28
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Quote Originally Posted by RebelYell View Post
    One is a trained journalist. One has been trained for years in the fundamentals of playing football and often coaching so they can see flaws and mistakes others don't see. If you can't see that there is a difference, this discussion is worthless.
    hmmmm..........


    Quote Originally Posted by c-mob 71
    Todd McShay
    DIRECTOR, COLLEGE FOOTBALL SCOUTING, ESPN SCOUTS INC., FOOTBALL ANALYST

    Todd McShay joined ESPN in 2006 as a football analyst, providing in-depth scouting information on college football players across the country, including the nation’s top NFL Draft prospects. McShay is a year-round contributor across ESPN’s multiple platforms, including SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, ESPN.com, ESPN The Magazine, ESPNU and ESPNEWS.


    McShay is the director of college football scouting for ESPN Scouts Inc., where he has been evaluating prospects for the NFL Draft since 1998, during which time numerous NFL teams have utilized his reports. In 2009, McShay joined the main telecast of ESPN’s NFL Draft coverage, using Magic Board technology, analysis and debate talk-backs from ESPN’s Bristol, Conn.,studios, to Radio City Music Hall in New York City. McShay has been part of ESPN’s NFL Draft telecasts since 2006 providing analysis on SportsCenter and ESPNEWS.



    Prior to joining ESPN, McShay worked full-time for “The War Room,” (1999-2006) a start-up scouting publication created by former NFL scout Gary Horton. It soon became a go-to source of information for 16 NFL scouting departments and became a crosscheck for CBS and The Sporting News. ESPN purchased the business in 2006 and changed the name to Scouts Inc.



    McShay interned for Horton in the summer of 1998, after getting his first taste of college scouting and recruitment when he “cut film” for the University of Richmond coaching staff.



    Before becoming one of the nation’s top NFL Draft analysts, McShay was the quarterback for the Swampscott (Mass.) High School football team (1991-94), and he was a backup quarterback for the University of Richmond (1995-97) before sustaining a back injury that ended his college career.



    A native of Swampscott, Mass., McShay graduated from the University of Richmond in 1999 with a bachelors of arts in leadership studies (Jepson School of Leadership). He supports the American Heart Association, American Cancer Society and National Parkinson’s Foundation, as well as an active member of Mike Gottfried’s Team Focus.
    Thank you c-mob great post and research. I guess your wrong Rebel, and maybe your arguement is worthless. I call check mate.
    Last edited by rammiser; -03-21-2010 at 02:09 AM.
    Just Fix It

  14. #29
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    Re: Not so fast Mr. Locker

    Just a friendly mod notice - either keep it civil, or we're shutting it down. There are some pretty borderline comments in here, and that kind of antagonism is not necessary.

    Moving on...


    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_Weasel View Post
    Nick,

    I was responding to rammiser's claim that the draft is nothing more than a crap shoot, specifically this quote:

    My entire post is basically about that one statement, I didn't even mention the NFL CAC once. I quoted the entire post because the idea that scouting is useful only if it's perfect runs throughout.
    I understand that. But it appeared as if a fair amount of your post also discussed how some are more consistently correct than others, McShay is not one of them, and that his opinion differed from scouts.

    I found those parts of your post to be a bit inaccurate. For instance, the PFT doesn't tell us that McShay isn't aligned with NFL scouts but rather the advisory committee. Yet quite a bit of what we heard about Locker leading up to and after the draft was closer to McShay's analysis than the committee's second round projection. And as I've demonstrated, even the committee's predictions can be very, very off (see: Jerod Mayo).

    This goes back to rammiser's point - you can do all the scouting and research you want, but you can still be wrong. Thus, once you've exhausted all your tangible resources and have made your selection, all you can do is hope you're right and the guy you took aligns with what you concluded he would be. Ultimately no one is going to know one way or another until he takes the field and performs.
    Last edited by Nick; -03-21-2010 at 02:02 PM.

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