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Thread: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

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    The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    Okay so here is the scenario most talked about the browns trade their 2 1st rounders to move up so here is how the draft looks:

    Colts: Luck
    Browns: RG III
    Vikings: Kalil
    Rams: ???

    I have been on the Blackmon bandwagon for a while now but it really got me thinking what if Fisher goes BPA instead of need? In this situation the BPA is Trent Richardson. As much as Blackmon is my favorite rams pick i would also rank Richardson over Blackmon...

    So what do you think come draft day is it possible we pass Blackmon for the BPA approach and take Richardson?


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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    To answer your "odds" question, my guess is about 10 to 1 against. Fish, Schotty, and Williams have been evaluating current Ram personnel from the moment they came on board. Who knows what their opinions are on the players we have now? There has been a great deal of talk regarding whether we should take Blackmon or Kalil, but no one knows what they really think about our current roster on a player by player analysis.

    I personally have no idea who the Rams will take with that first pick (whether we stay at #2 or trade down). Bpa is all fine and well, but Les and Jeff may have vastly different ideas of who the bpa is than say Mel K. or Mike Maycock (let alone you or me), or take your pick of pundits. How about Morris Claiborne, or OT, Riley Reiff? My point is this: we cleaned house and turned over the keys to a very experienced group of football guys. I am going to sit back and watch and wait, as there may be some real surprises. This time of year no team wants to tip its hand regarding which players it is targeting in the upcoming draft. I am looking forward to our new FO and coaching staff doing their thing come draft day.

    Now if we trade down a couple of times, and Richardson falls obscenely, then who knows? Right now though I'll stick with 10 to 1 ...

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    In my eyes the only way I'm picking Richardson is if Blackmon is already gone. But hey, anything can happen, and if Fisher and Snead have Trent rated much higher than Blackmon for some reason, then you can't argue with taking talent over need.

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    I would LOVE to have Richardson. Hell, I'd love to have most of the top players in the draft. I think he'll be really really good, but no way will he be the pick at 4 over Blackmon. If the Rams are blown away by an offer in the 6-9 range I definitely think he could still be there.

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    I don't see the Rams picking Richardson unless Blackmon, Kalil, and Claiborne are off the board. Sooo, that's going to mean a trade down to at least pick #6 if not later.

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    I could use the same argument that you made about selecting RGIII. The Rams have too many needs to address in other positions. Granted SJax is getting older but he continues to be productive.

    Also, talented running backs can be obtained in the latter rounds.

    Go Rams

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    i just read an article saying that trent benches 500 pounds!!! thats insane and squats 650.. wow ..
    San Diego Ram likes this.

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    Quote Originally Posted by xkidflowx View Post
    i just read an article saying that trent benches 500 pounds!!! thats insane and squats 650.. wow ..
    that's at least 10 wins right there!

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    ONly if SJax is traded first....so odds aren't 0 -- but around 1.01375 percent

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    I think TRICH is better than Blackmon. He's the complete package at RB, not to mention hes absolutely huge and can carry the ball 25 times a game if need be. Best RB prospect since AP, while Blackmon is the best WR prospect since last April..

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    i'd draft richardson only if we ppick up Vjax

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    I think TRICH is better than Blackmon.
    He could be, and there are some who may agree with you. The problem is he plays at a position that is rather undervalued right now because the NFL has become a passing league.

    Ten years ago, it wasn't uncommon for there to be anywhere from 8-12 running backs who finished a season with 300+ carries. In 2011, there were two.

    Running backs simply aren't premium positions at this point due to the nature of the league, the growth of the two-back philosophy, and a team's ability to find efficient runners later in the draft or even as uncoveted free agents (Arian Foster).

    So while Richardson may grade out as one of the top prospects in this class, it really wouldn't surprise me if he slipped out of the top ten.

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    He could be, and there are some who may agree with you. The problem is he plays at a position that is rather undervalued right now because the NFL has become a passing league.

    Ten years ago, it wasn't uncommon for there to be anywhere from 8-12 running backs who finished a season with 300+ carries. In 2011, there were two.

    Running backs simply aren't premium positions at this point due to the nature of the league, the growth of the two-back philosophy, and a team's ability to find efficient runners later in the draft or even as uncoveted free agents (Arian Foster).

    So while Richardson may grade out as one of the top prospects in this class, it really wouldn't surprise me if he slipped out of the top ten.
    To me, all that "You can find RB's late" stuff is absolute garbage. Its just like ANY other position in the NFL. The premium players are picked at the top, and as the draft goes on teams will find an excellent fit at the RB position (Arian Foster is a 1 cut ZBS RB and the Texans employ the perfect offense for him to be successful) while the less developed and skilled players slide. Its just RB's are more interchangeable. If a RB can step in and get a 1,000 yard season it seems as such a huge accomplishment when its really not..

    But going back to my point, its like any other position. Why do you think our O-line was garbage this year? Because Steve Loney and the idiots in the FO just put whatever guys they could together and had no clue what their own scheme was. Dahl is a roadgrader and a man to man blocker, while Bell is softer than wool and is a zone blocker.. Bell was trash here for 3 or 4 years and was playing at a pro bowl level with the Titans... I wonder why!

    Or how about the Redskins. They throw out Tim Hightower, and he plays good ball when in Arizona he was nothing but an under achiever. He goes down and they put in Roy Helu and this kid goes rumbling and tumbling for 640 yards averaging 4.2 YPC. He also goes down and they put out their 2nd rookie Evan Royster who gains 328 yards and has a 5.9 YPC.

    Thats 2 rookie RB's out of the same class that both did excellent when asked to step in... Because they fit the ZBS that the Redskins run.
    Last edited by sosa39rams; -02-21-2012 at 07:48 PM.

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    To me, all that "You can find RB's late" stuff is absolute garbage. Its just like ANY other position in the NFL. The premium players are picked at the top
    And yet how many of the top running backs in the league are Top Ten picks? Peterson and McFadden and who else?

    Jones-Drew: 2nd round
    Turner: 5th round
    Rice: 2nd round
    Gore: 3rd round
    Foster: Undrafted
    McCoy: 2nd round
    Johnson: 1st round (24th)
    S. Jackson: 1st round (24th)
    Forte: 2nd round
    Mendenhall: 1st round (23rd)
    Jackson: Undrafted

    I don't see evidence there to support the idea that the premium running backs are taken at the top of the draft. If anything, there's more of a trend for finding good runners in the late first or second round than at the top.

    Now let's go back over the last decade and look at how often running backs have been taken in the Top Ten, and how they've panned out.

    2011: None
    2010: C.J. Spiller
    2009: None
    2008: Darren McFadden
    2007: Adrian Peterson
    2006: Reggie Bush
    2005: Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams
    2004: None
    2003: None
    2002: None

    So, half of the time no running backs were even taken in the Top Ten, and five out of the seven runners were disappointments for their teams. Two hits of seven prospects over a ten-year span.

    Which brings me back to my point: Richardson may be among the best players in the draft, but few runners are valued highly enough to actually be taken there because teams have found success finding quality runners later in the draft.

    It also doesn't help that the recent history of spending top picks at the position has produced more than double the number of misses than hits. Why take the risk when the odds are there will be someone later on capable of becoming a very effective runner?

    Therefore, I don't think Richardson is a viable option for the Rams unless they orchestrate a trade down of more than just a few spots.

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    Re: The odds of Trent Richardson over Blackmon?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    And yet how many of the top running backs in the league are Top Ten picks? Peterson and McFadden and who else?

    Jones-Drew: 2nd round
    Turner: 5th round
    Rice: 2nd round
    Gore: 3rd round
    Foster: Undrafted
    McCoy: 2nd round
    Johnson: 1st round (24th)
    S. Jackson: 1st round (24th)
    Forte: 2nd round
    Mendenhall: 1st round (23rd)
    Jackson: Undrafted

    I don't see evidence there to support the idea that the premium running backs are taken at the top of the draft. If anything, there's more of a trend for finding good runners in the late first or second round than at the top.

    Now let's go back over the last decade and look at how often running backs have been taken in the Top Ten, and how they've panned out.

    2011: None
    2010: C.J. Spiller
    2009: None
    2008: Darren McFadden
    2007: Adrian Peterson
    2006: Reggie Bush
    2005: Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams
    2004: None
    2003: None
    2002: None

    So, half of the time no running backs were even taken in the Top Ten, and five out of the seven runners were disappointments for their teams. Two hits of seven prospects over a ten-year span.

    Which brings me back to my point: Richardson may be among the best players in the draft, but few runners are valued highly enough to actually be taken there because teams have found success finding quality runners later in the draft.

    It also doesn't help that the recent history of spending top picks at the position has produced more than double the number of misses than hits. Why take the risk when the odds are there will be someone later on capable of becoming a very effective runner?


    Therefore, I don't think Richardson is a viable option for the Rams unless they orchestrate a trade down of more than just a few spots.
    I didn't say that you cannot find good RB's late in the draft... I said the RB's that are found in later rounds are premium fits for their teams which is why they have success.

    Obviously there is going to be RB's that were picked after the first round that are dominant, and you're argument has a whole lost of 1st and 2nd rounders...

    The only ones that weren't : Michael Turner who did good in SD but never had a shot there so he left in FA and went to the Falcons. He is overrated but he was a great find that late. He's a big RB that pounds away. After just 3 years of being a featured back his body is wearing down considering hes averaged 3 YPC 6 of his last 7 games.

    Going around looking at any position in the NFL you will find tons of successful players drafted after round 1. To me, lots of those RB's sucked because they didn't deserve to be picked that high, the only reason they were is because they were flashy. C.J Spiller? He is ok, but nothing above that. Reggie Bush? Why was this guy in the discussion for the #1 pick? He cant run in between the tackles and will never carry the ball 300 times in a year.

    Let me slide this you're way... How many of the top QB's in the NFL were drafted in the Top 10?

    Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan (questionable).

    My point there is probably 5-7 top QB's in the game who weren't drafted in the Top 10 just the same situation as RB's.

    Anyways, we wont agree here. I think the RB position is the same as any other in the NFL. The premier guys (my definition is probably different than yours because I don't consider a guy like Reggie Bush premier and he was considered for #1) are worth any pick if their "elite" enough. TRICH isn't an every year RB. He has exceptional hands so he is a 3 down back, he is a good blocker, and not to mention a monster with the ball in his hands. Good breakaway speed, and is massive so he can take a pounding, not to mention he can run through the middle or around the edge.

    Thats the type of RB I define as "elite". To me if a player is the BPA and elite, than he is in serious consideration for any pick (some exceptions like OG or S for #1).

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