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  1. #1
    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    I recently heard a quote from new Dolphins Head Coach Nick Saban that only 30% of QBs drafted in the first round have productive NFL careers.

    This got me wondering how well the scouts have done in rating OTs. So I went back to 1997 and rated the first round OTs on a scale of 1 to 5, as follows:

    5 - Pro Bowl Player
    4 - Very Good Starter
    3 - Solid Starter
    2 - Contributer
    1 - Bust

    Here's what I found:

    1997:
    (1) Orlando Pace, St. Louis - 5
    (6) Walter Jones, Seattle - 5
    (19) Tarik Glenn, Indianapolis - 4
    (30) Ross Verba, Green Bay - 3

    1998:
    (7) Kyle Turley, New Orleans - 4
    (11) Tra Thomas, Philadelphia - 5
    (27) Victor Riley, Kansas City - 3

    1999:
    (14) John Tait, Kansas City - 4
    (19) Luke Peitgout, NY Giants - 4
    (21) L.J. Shelton, Arizona - 3
    (27) Aaron Gibson, Detroit - 2

    2000:
    (3) Chris Samuels, Washington - 4
    (20) Stockar McDougall, Detroit - 3

    2001:
    (2) Leonard Davis, Arizona - 3
    (14) Kenyatta Walker, Tampa Bay - 2
    (18) Jeff Bachus, Detroit - 3

    2002:
    (4) Mike Williams, Buffalo - 3
    (7) Bryant McKinney, Minnesota - 4
    (10) Levi Jones, Cincinnati - 4
    (29) Marc Colombo, Chicago - 1

    2003:
    (8) Jordan Gross, Carolina - 4
    (20) George Foster, Denver - 3
    (26) Kwame Harris, San Francisco - 1

    2004:
    (2) Robert Gallery, Oakland - 3
    (16) Shawn Andrews, Philadelphia - n/a (injured)
    (19) Vernon Carey, Miami - 1

    Total: 25 OTs drafted in Round 1 (excluding S.Andrews)
    Average Rating: 3.28

    So, the average first round OT is at least a solid/very good starter.


  2. #2
    viper's Avatar
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    Re: Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    Nice piece of work, Av. Rather enlightening I'd say.

  3. #3
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    Re: Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    I think it's very premature to call Kwame Harris and Vernon Carey busts. Harris is a natural right tackle that's had to play the left side because of the spot vacated by Deese, and Carey is a rookie who was widely considered a guard when drafted.
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  4. #4
    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    Re: Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    I agree. Its too soon to make the call. But for the purposes of this analysis, I was conservative. If they improve, my point is even stronger.

  5. #5
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    Re: Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    thats what I like to hear A.V. getting Conservative.I got hope for a lawyer.God Bless.
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  6. #6
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    Re: Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam
    I agree. Its too soon to make the call. But for the purposes of this analysis, I was conservative. If they improve, my point is even stronger.
    I'd say you were very conservative. I'd put some of those guys a notch higher than you have them, which would increase the average even more. It does seem a safer investment to go OL in the 1st. I wonder how other positions play out?
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

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    Re: Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    so with this post are you worried about picking brown @ #1. Or are you excited about this info? for one im kinda worried if look closer to the bottom of the list youll see only 3's or 2's mostly.



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  8. #8
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    Re: Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    Quote Originally Posted by Ramsfan8503
    so with this post are you worried about picking brown @ #1. Or are you excited about this info? for one im kinda worried if look closer to the bottom of the list youll see only 3's or 2's mostly.



    T.S.A.
    In general, I think a rookie OT can contribute. Rookie DTs, QBs, ILBs, TEs...they scare me. But I think OT is kind of like WR & CB, it's not unheard of to start from day 1. Any of the 3Bs could start for the majority of teams in the NFL, and if we have one after the 1st round, they will be able to contribute early, if not from training camp forward.

    Understand, all of this is my opinion of course. I openly admit that each case is different and the whole thing is a crap shoot.
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

  9. #9
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    Re: Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    Anyone who still subscribes to the insiders really should read barry wallers recent post on this and see if it changes your mind. It certainly opened my eyes. I would have agreed 100% with Av's analysis before i read barry, now i am not so sure. Lots of starters at tackle come in rounds 2-4 as well without a significantly higher crap out value. Meanwhile, very very hard for rookies to step in and play tackle, unlike the corners and safeties, who at least can contribute on special teams immediately.

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  10. #10
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    Re: Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    very very hard for rookies to step in and play tackle
    Yes, its very hard for a rookie to contribute at ANY position, but every year there is 1 or 2 OTs that are starters within 4 games if not from day 1. I believe Barron and Brown can both start in this league now. They both have the physical tools, and I would say Brown more so than Barron. As long as being a pro doesn't completely blow their mind, they can contribute as rookies. I haven't read Waller's article, but he's entitled to his opinion. As for me, I've yet to see anything that would make me think those two can't start next year.
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

  11. #11
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    Re: Offensive Tackle One Of The Safer 1st Round Bets

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison
    As for me, I've yet to see anything that would make me think those two can't start next year.
    Even if Brown or Barron struggle a bit with the system, I believe they're much more physically suited to play tackle than Scott Tercero or Blaine Saipaia and much more talented than Grant Williams, so I would think their talent would be able to overcome at least some of the shortcomings of not being 100% with the scheme. After all, they didn't get first round recognition for their looks.

    And even if they can't start from day one, perhaps they start halfway through the season. At the very least, a first round tackle like Barron or Brown, IMO, is a pick that secures the position for the foreseeable future, if not the immediate future. Do I have the same confidence if the Rams take Adam Terry, Marcus Johnson, or Wesley Britt in rounds two or three? I can't say that I do.
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