Ouch....Pat Kirwan's 3.0 mock

[HUbison]

From his latest mock, Pat Kirwan has the following:

1. C. Long
2. Dorsey
3. Ryan
4. Gholston
5. J. Long

What caught my eye was this statement from Kirwan's scouting of Gholston & Chris Long....

The Dolphins continue to think long and hard about Ohio State defense end Vernon Gholston, as well as Chris Long. I watched both players again this past week and I agree with Virginia head coach Al Groh that Long can still get better and is not a guy that can be labeled, "as good as he's going to be." Gholston has lots of potential but he just doesn't pursue plays with great effort all the time. On the first 10 plays away from Gholston that I watched, he did not pass one teammate in pursuit. Long pursues everything.

I'm going to assume those 10 plays didn't show up on the "Godlike" video.

See, this is the stuff that scares me about Gholston. Are we getting the one that looked great ('07 Michigan, '07 Wisconsin, '06 North Ill.) or the one that didn't show up ('06 MSU, '06 Michigan, '07 Wash., '07 PSU, '07 Purdue)?

It's just concerning that there appears to be a difference between his play against winning teams (per game: 3.62 tackles, 1.23 tfl, 1.04 sacks) and against non-winning teams (per game: 3.00 tackles, 1.11 tfl, 0.69 sacks). Not a huge difference, but enough that the question must be (and has been) asked.

As well, I'm still concerned that 26% of his career tackles-for-loss and 31% of his career sacks came in two games ('07 Wis., '07 UM)! Away from those two games, he played 24 games (just counting his two years as a starter) with 22.5 tfls and 15.5 sacks. Impressive, but not #2 kind of production.

If the Jim Thomas report is to be accepted, my questions are irrelvant as we won't be drafting VG. However, if the report is smoke.............just a little concerned, that's all.

[Rambos]

Pat Kirwan

St. Louis can move Adam Carriker to left defensive end and plug Dorsey into the front and all of a sudden the Rams have a terrific front four. Three-technique tackles are hard to find; when a guy like Dorsey comes along and your team is in a four-man front, that's hard to pass. (N=G)

Well the Rams are saying this...

Jim Thomas Conversation
Rams beat writer said that contrary to popular belief, if the Rams take Dorsey, Carriker will not be moved to DE, but that they will start both as DTs.

[harrydog]

I don't think there's any question that we'll take C. Long if he's there. But if Miami takes him, we face a real dilemma. If we take J. Long, we almost certainly need to grab a DE in the 2nd round. Will there be any DE's that can step in and start for us (effectively) that will be there at #33? If we take Dorsey at #2 we still need a DE.
But I agree that Gholston is a bigger risk than any of the other top prospects and I'd be surprised if we take him at #2.

[Tony Soprano]

Pat Kirwan



Well the Rams are saying this...

Jim Thomas Conversation
Rams beat writer said that contrary to popular belief, if the Rams take Dorsey, Carriker will not be moved to DE, but that they will start both as DTs.

It's crazy to think about Carriker at Nose Tackle - it's a total waste of his talents.

[Rambos]

If we take J. Long, we almost certainly need to grab a DE in the 2nd round. Will there be any DE's that can step in and start for us (effectively) that will be there at #33?

Yes!

LAWRENCE JACKSON DE USC

CAREER: Jackson has 52 tackles for loss and 30.5 sacks in his career.

2007: The quick Jackson started for his fourth season at defensive end as a senior in 2007. Overall in 2007 while starting all 13 games, he had 60 tackles, including a team-best 17 for losses of 83 yards (with a team-high 10.5 sacks for minus 64 yards), plus 1 fumble recovery, 2 forced fumbles and 3 deflections. He was tied for 18th nationally in sacks (0.8, tied for third in Pac-10) and tied for 24th in tackles for a loss (1.3, third in Pac-10). He was named to the 2007 AP All-American second team, Phil Steele's All-American second team, Collegefootballnews.com All-American third team, All-Pac-10 first team (making it for the second time after being so honored in 2005), ESPN.com All-Pac-10 first team, Collegefootballnews.com All-Pac-10 first team, Rivals.com All-Pac-10 first team and Phil Steele's All-Pac-10 first team. He was a USC team captain. He won USC's Co-Defensive Player of the Year Award. He was a Senior Bowl invitee. He had surgery on his right ankle prior to 2007 spring practice. He had 3 tackles and a deflection against Idaho, then 6 tackles, including 1.5 for a loss (with a sack), at Nebraska, 2 sacks against Washington State and 6 tackles, including 1.5 for losses (with a sack), at Washington. He had 4 tackles versus Stanford, 1 stop against Arizona, 3 tackles at Notre Dame. He added 11 tackles (1 for a loss) at Oregon, 3 tackles (1.5 sacks) and a deflection against Oregon State and 5 stops and had a fumble recovery late in the game at California. He had 4 sacks, tying the USC game record held by many (last set by Tim Ryan against UCLA in 1989), and 5.5 tackles for a loss (a USC record) among his 8 overall tackles at Arizona State (he also forced a fumble) to earn Walter Camp Football Foundation National Defensive Player of the Week and Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Week honor. He had 3 stops (including 1 for a loss) and a deflection against UCLA. He had 5 tackles, including 3 for losses (with a sack), and a forced fumble against Illinois.

The guy plays well every week, does not have 8 sacks in two games and not show up for the next 3.

[harrydog]

Jackson might be a good pick at #33 but he doesn't have much speed off the edge, so I'm not sure if he'd get us the sacks we're looking for. But hopefully Little will provide that for us this season, if he is healthy.

[Rambos]

Jackson might be a good pick at #33 but he doesn't have much speed off the edge

What are we looking for? What do you think C. Long will get, if we got him? We have Little he was hurt last year and missed half the season.

[BIG-BLUE]

Kinda like the idea of Dosey/Jackson in the first two rounds. With Dorsey & Carriker pushing the pocket back or even blowing it up to force the plays outside could be a huge advantage for our DE & CB.

[bruce4life]

Kinda like the idea of Dosey/Jackson in the first two rounds. With Dorsey & Carriker pushing the pocket back or even blowing it up to force the plays outside could be a huge advantage for our DE & CB.

this is why dorsey needs to our pick enough said

[mde8352gorams]

As much as I like the concept of drafting Dorsey in round #1 and Jackson in round #2, I'm having a hard time believing that we would take 2 DL's in the first 2 rounds and ignore the OL. That would mean in 2 years we'll have taken 3 DL's with our first 4 picks. A bit heavy for a team built around offense.

While I agree on the depth of OT's in this draft, I'm certain we'll be looking for the eventual replacement for Orlando and with our #2 pick throughout the first 6 rounds, we'll be making that a priority.

I do see us taking Jake Long and then Jackson in round #2 and that ain't bad!!

Go Rams!:r

[txramsfan]

this is why dorsey needs to our pick enough said

No, it's nuff said. Haven't you seen HUb's sig?

:beer:

[HUbison]

No, it's nuff said. Haven't you seen HUb's sig?

:beer:

Good point, tx. "Enough said" seems much too urbane to carry this thought. On the other hand, a good ol' "Nuff said" is more suitable for the loutish nescience among us.

[Mooselini]

Pat Kirwan



Well the Rams are saying this...

Jim Thomas Conversation
Rams beat writer said that contrary to popular belief, if the Rams take Dorsey, Carriker will not be moved to DE, but that they will start both as DTs.

I dont see Carriker at nose tackle. I honestly dont think he will perform as well as he could at UT. I'm concerned that we will be wasting last year's first round pick for this years if we draft Dorsey. Doesn't make much sense does it?

I would rather have Jake Long than Dorsey. But I would rather have Gholston over Jake Long. And Chris Long over all.

If Chris Long isn't there, take Gholston. There is a big hole there at DE, address it NOW.

[Rambos]

I dont see Carriker at nose tackle.

We don't have to have a true NT. We can have two DTs.

[Nick]

I'm a huge Kirwan fan, but anyone who defends a Dorsey pick by saying the Rams can move Carriker outside to end has lost me until such an idea is accompanied by a detailed, logical argument supporting it.

As for you, Monsieur Bison...

As well, I'm still concerned that 26% of his career tackles-for-loss and 31% of his career sacks came in two games ('07 Wis., '07 UM)! Away from those two games, he played 24 games (just counting his two years as a starter) with 22.5 tfls and 15.5 sacks. Impressive, but not #2 kind of production.

Two questions...

1) What would you define as #2 kind of production?

2) Is Giants DE Osi Umenyiora any less of a pass rush threat or player because eight of his 13 sacks last year came in two games? Nine of Patrick Kerney's 14.5 sacks came in three games, and 12.5 of Jared Allen's 15.5 sacks came in six games. What about them?

Gholston is a riskier prospect than some of the other players who have spent more time on the field and who have a larger body of work to examine; there's no denying he's more of a question mark simply because we haven't seen as much of him. He's a young player who is valued highly in at least some part because so much of his potential is still unreached.

Questions about Gholston's consistency will undoubtedly be discussed in many draft rooms later this month. I have some additional thoughts I'd like you to consider regarding that issue, though. If you don't like that he disappears from the stat sheet at times, does it at least comfort you a bit to see that the games he does register good numbers in are the ones versus better or stronger opponents? Let's not forget he's relatively new to the position, having started at DE for basically only two seasons. Let's also not forget that players can make an impact without having to appear on the stat sheet as well.

But what does it say about a prospect's consistency on the stat sheet when other top pass rushers in the league show similar spikes? What does it say about Leonard Little when, in 2006, 10 of his 13 sacks that year came in five games? What about the other eleven? Could this to some degree be the nature of the position?