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  1. #1
    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Pick 13 Could Offer As Much Drama As #2

    With most of the workouts done, at least the public ones media wise, the first round talent seems quite clearly defined, as far as tiers of talent go. Even in an unusually strong overall rirst and second round this year, that all important final definition, will allow teams to plan their draft, and even their free agent plan, looking ahead to value when they draft.

    By now the Rams have already locked in their idea on "what they can get" in this draft, and it's clear from their few moves, and who they missed on, where they feel the value will be in the draft's first 45 picks. .

    Clearly, they must think an immediate starting free safety is going to be available even at pick 44, because reaching for one in round one that early would the the last resort to maximize the draft.

    My own top foure highest tiers lead me to feel that pick 13 is not a great spot to stay in, especially with the probability of three quarterbacks in the top 12 lessening.

    Will Les Snead move up to pick 8 or 9 to get one of the elite? Not unless all it takes is a third rounder, and probably not even then.

    Nope, any way I do a mock, that #13 is a choice out of my top four tiers, and in a larger group of pretty equal guys, where a deal down would seem to make sense.


    This draft is driven by several factors, one of which is the Manziel thing with Houston I wrote about .

    Another is that the first tier this year is one guy, Jadeveon Clowney, a fact that has made even the top of the draft a big soap opera.

    Clowney is in what I call my "Best of a generation" type talent rating.

    He is the guy teams will overpay to get in a trade.

    He is the guy everyone says "no team" can pass on if faced with pick him or another guy.

    My next tier has just two players in it, Tackle Greg Robinson, and LB Khalil Mack.

    Teams might trade a second rounder and their high #1 to get these two, but those picks this year seem far more valuable, and the depth after them is still very good.

    My next tier is tackle Jake Matthews and WR Sammie Watkins, who I rate as guys who would be top ten in any draft and safe choices. These two are ever so slightly below the others, and would be snapped up fast if available and a need, but would probably not be guys would trade a whole lot to move up for.

    So now you see that a trade out of the top five could take a team out of those levels, something Les Snead is no doubt aware of. getting one of that top five seems a must, but it's all about Johnnie Football, or another QB going top five for the Rams to comfortably move to sixth.

    The Rams problem at 13 is that the next tier of talent will almost surely be gone by the time they pick, either by teams taking them or trading down to teams that do.

    The drop after this group is far larger than the other tiers, which is the problem for the Rams. After this group, need will start making the draft go every which way, and a bunch more deals will happen that don't involve second round picks this year.

    This is the rest of my "Blue Chip" group that includes those other tiers.

    LB Anthony Barr
    T Taylor Lewan
    WR Mike Evans
    TE Eric Ebron
    CB Justin Gilbert


    Snead's problem is that they will all be gone, along with the top five, by the time the Rams draft, unless three quarterbacks go in the top 12. I don't see anyone who thinks that is gonna happen.

    When it doesn't, the Gilbert or Evans argument becomes moot, unfortunately for the Rams.

    At that point, the Rams have a decision to make, and hopefully that pick is attractive to a team wanting a guy that doesn't fit the Rams needs.

    My next tier goes all the way through round one, so a deal down won't lessen the talent level available at several positions of need for the Rams.

    I keep hoping a couple will force their way into that top ten, and push one to 13th, but I just can't see it. The only ones close now seem to be CJ Mosely and Aaron Donald.

    I was hoping that Darqueze Dennard would be close to that top ten, but it just hasn't happened, and same for the safeties.

    My next tier includes four quarterbacks.

    QB J. Manziel
    QB T. Bridgewater
    QB B. Bortles
    QB D. Carr
    WR M. Lee
    WR O. Beckham
    WR B. Cooks
    WR K. Benjamin
    OT Z. Martin
    OT D. Bittonio
    DE D. Ford
    DE K. Ealy
    DT A. Donald
    DT L. Nix
    DT R. Hageman
    DT T. Jernigan
    LB C.J. Mosely
    LB R. Shazier
    CB D. Dennard
    CB K. Fuller
    CB J. Verett
    S. C. Pryor
    S. H. Clinton-Dix

    Barry Waller

  2. #2
    mde8352gorams's Avatar
    mde8352gorams is offline Registered User
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    Re: Pick 13 Could Offer As Much Drama As #2

    I have been thinking the same as you point out in more detail, that we're in a no-man's-land at #13 and trading that pick is more likely than #2. Compensation also plays into that conclusion. As you're more educated on the the levels of talent and how they're graded, I'm pleased to learn that we can trade down from #13 without getting stuck with a much lower talent prospect. The bonus is that we add picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds potentially.

    With Jeff Fisher almost dismissing the notion of taking Sammy Watkins, I'm starting to think J. Clowney is not out of the realm of possibility if he's available at #2. He could spell Chris Long and maybe Chris Long can be used in a DT rotation. My concern is strength if CL gets double teamed, but that opens lanes for Brockers and Clowney. I'm sure Gregg William will know what works best.

    Go Rams!

  3. #3
    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    Re: Pick 13 Could Offer As Much Drama As #2

    Snead's problem is that they will all be gone, along with the top five, by the time the Rams draft, unless three quarterbacks go in the top 12. I don't see anyone who thinks that is gonna happen.
    You don't? While many have dropped Bridgewater out of the Top 12, there are still several who have 3 QBs going before the Rams' second pick: Dane Brugler (CBSSports), Will Brinson (CBSSports), Mike Huguenin (NFL.com), Chase Goodbread (NFL.com) and Matt Smith (NFL.com), for example.

    If three QBs are taken in the Top 12, then the following players are nearly certain to be gone when the Rams make their pick at #13: Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Clowney, Mack, Robinson, Matthews, Watkins.

    That means that at least one of the following players would still be available when the Rams' slot at #13 comes up: Mike Evans, Taylor Lewan, Justin Gilbert, Zack Martin and Darqueze Dennard.

    If, as you suggest, only 2 QBs go in the Top 12, the next player on my list would be Hasean Clinton-Dix.

    I think any of the six players I just listed would be good selections at No. 13, should the Rams decide to make a selection rather than trading down.

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    Re: Pick 13 Could Offer As Much Drama As #2

    I've been reading things about Houston trading the top pic for someone wanting Clowney getting a ton for it and then still getting a QB they need, screwing our trade ability. If that happens our 2 spot might not have the value to trade out, so maybe 13 is the place to get a lot of action.

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    Re: Pick 13 Could Offer As Much Drama As #2

    I think any of the six players I just listed would be good selections at No. 13, should the Rams decide to make a selection rather than trading down.[/QUOTE]

    Agreed Av, but if we have selected Robinson or Matthews with our first pick then surely this takes off two players out of that six (Lewan and Martin).

    So if only 2 QB’s are taken and we select one of the OT’s then we have to place two more onto the list along with Clinton-Dix. So who are the next two on your list? Donald is certainly one for me, Pryor perhaps?

  6. #6
    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    Re: Pick 13 Could Offer As Much Drama As #2

    Quote Originally Posted by SWFCRAM View Post
    Agreed Av, but if we have selected Robinson or Matthews with our first pick then surely this takes off two players out of that six (Lewan and Martin).

    So if only 2 QB’s are taken and we select one of the OT’s then we have to place two more onto the list along with Clinton-Dix. So who are the next two on your list? Donald is certainly one for me, Pryor perhaps?
    If I had to expand the list, I'd say that Pryor, Donald and Anthony Barr would all be possibilities at No. 13.

    Also, call me crazy, but I'm not sure I'd preclude, if the draft fell a certain way, taking Matthews to play OT and then Martin to play OG. A starting OL of Long, Martin, Wells, Saffold and Matthews (with Jones and Barksdale as key backups) could be pretty darn good, no?

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