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Thread: QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

  1. #1
    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

    I believe the writing is on the wall, when it comes to the quarterback group and how this draft will play out. Here are some facts that I believe will make the teams with top ten picks bypass this passer group.

    1. Teams are adding veteran QBs who have started a lot. T
    This seems to be playing out with teams adding competetent short term answers at QB. Oakland is surely out of the market with Schaub, and I believe Houston is as well with the Fitzpatrick signing. I also can't see Jacksonville going there, for reasons that will become clear.

    2. How can these teams take a mulligan in 2015, instead of getting their face of the frachise passer now?

    Maybe because in 2015, even if they don't get lucky and get one of this year's top guys in round two, they can choose among a group of four or five quarterbacks with better credentials and talents than this one.
    In 2015, you should have Jameis WInston, Marcus Mariota, Bryce Petty, Brett Hundley, Braxton Miller, and Sean Mannion available.

    Imagine taking one of this year's group, and then being faced with having to pass on that bounty of studs in 2015. At least if you get a second rounder this year, you would not be prohibited from going after one of that really good 2015 group.

    3. Four players have seperated themselves as guys worth dealing up to acquire, so every top four team is going to get offers, and in the end, they may ALL deal down.

    4. When it all sorts out, the top four picks will be Clowney, Mack, Robinson and Watkins, not necessarily in that order. Whether teams stay put and take one of the big four, or take the extra high second rounder and a pick in 2015, depends on the fit of the top player that drops, as well as the depth at a position of need that makes a deal down palatable.

    It all starts with Houston. Their GM Rick Smith , who is the guy making the picks, not new head coach Bill O'Brien, not the owner, has taken defensive players first in every draft but two since 2006. One was last year, when they took WR DeAngelo Hopkins, the other was when they took LT Duane Brown.

    The problem for Houston is that the best defensive player, DE Jadeveon Clowney, is a poor fit for the 3-4 that Romeo Crennel always uses. So dies that make Khalil Mack, who some rate over Clowney anyway, the guy Smith takes first overall to pair with J.J. Watt?

    It doesn't seem like the Texans would take Watkins, though Andre Johnson is not getting any younger, and pairing Watkins with his former running mate at Clemson would seem to be attractive.

    They also would look hard at Greg Robinson, as they do need a tackle opposite Brown.

    They could also weigh the difference between Mack, the best fit, and Anthony Barr, perhaps an even better 3-4 rush LB, a guy they could get sixth or seventh after a deal down.

    It's very very unusual for a linebacker to go first overall, so I think Houston WILL end up dealing down to a team wanting Clowney or Robinson.

    Depending on what team that is, especially if it's Atlanta to get Clowney, the Rams are going to be in an interesting spot at #2

    The reason I believe Les Snead and Jeff Fisher will have a real thinker on their hands in this scenario is that Khalil Mack may be irresistable to them more than a trade out of the top tier.

    I think that is especially true because the top of the second tier are players at positions, including OT, that I get the feeling the Rams will bypass for later help there.

    The Rams want two IMPACT players in round one, and seemed locked into a DB at #13, or perhaps a deal down.

    Watkins, Clowney, and Mack appear to be those type players.

    With Clowney gone, and the team determined not to take a receiver first, I think it's Mack or a deal.

    But to where?

    Oakland will be pretty secure in getting Robinson 5th, or Matthews as a consolation prize if they do not.

    Cleveland will sit at 4, obviously wanting Watkins, but not enough to deal up with Rams.

    Jacksonville would probably take Mack or Watkins 3rd or trade down, so the Rams know Mack is gone even with a short deal down, because Cleveland takes him 4th if Watkins gone.

    If they trade below 5th, the Rams may as well deal down again, because I just don't think they want an OT first, and that's BPA at 6 through eight probably.

    If Atlanta has traded with Houston, the Texans then have Anthony Barr there for them 6th, and TWO high #2 picks to get their QB, maybe by dealing up into late round one.

    Tampa Bay isn't taking a QB either at 7, and will choose among WR Mike Evans, and OT Jake Matthews as the two top guys on the board. I think they will take Matthews in t hat scenario.

    Minnesota, picking 8th is a real wild card here , with ALL the QBs still on the board.
    Do they take Evans to give thema great three some of WR, with Greg Jennings not getting any younger. They already have a great TE, so E. Ebron seems out of the picture for Minny.

    They could go for DT Aaron Donald or CB Justin Gilbert as value players in that area, or make the big surprise with a QB. They have a new group there and a wacky owner, so anything is possible.

    With the passers now in free fall, it's all about which team blinks and moves up out of round two to get ahead of Cleveland at 26, where taking a QB seems certain..

    Barry Waller

  2. #2
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    Re: QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

    Hello Dancing Barry, with AvR not around atm I will step up to the plate...
    My guess even after reading every word of your facts is this, The Texicans do not trade out of the first spot. But select the top player on their board. As to who that is I really don't know, to say a brand new coach is not making the pics for them is bold. I would expect being a guess as I am not an informed insider such as your glorious self... That the new coach has at least some influence as to the direction these pics may fall at least some evaluations to add to what they already have on these guys being fresh from the college scene himself. Of course my stuff is all just conjecture and not facts you hold those cards I can only guess... Will be fun to see which way this cookie crumbles come draft day eh?


  3. #3
    Nick's Avatar
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    Re: QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Houston pass on a QB, but I don't think it will be because they signed Fitzpatrick, whom I don't view as having any real impact on their decision making at the position. I still think there's a good chance they stay put and take the best QB on their board.

    I do agree that Schaub to Oakland allows them to look elsewhere. We've been speculating for a while that the Browns may opt to go QB with their second pick rather than their first in the first round. Jacksonville could wait as well if they'd rather have a pass rusher early.

    It's all going to depend on what team will ignore the value on the board to try and get a quarterback. Did teams learn their lessons from 2011? We'll find out.

    One thing I'd caution is the talk about how next year's crop is going to be better. People were saying the same thing about this year's crop last year, because Bridgewater looked like an elite guy. Now he might be the second or third QB off the board. It's sort of a "grass is always greener" mentality. Those guys will face scrutiny when they come out as well, we'll see if they hold up any better.
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  4. #4
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    Re: QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

    I think Houston will take Bortles. Fitzpatrick is a nice insurance policy for Bortles to develop in to the franchise QB he can become. Barry your point about waiting for next year is valid, but that's a year away and who knows what can happen. So if they pass on Bortles then it will likely be Mack.

    We ain't taking Mack at #2. He's not scheme correct for us and at that spot you don't take a player for a spot where you took Olgetree last year. Plus he played in a conference with weak competition, a big step to the NFL. I want to see us stay at #2 and take Watkins because he offers us something we've been missing since Torry Holt left a bona fide #1 WR. Trading down makes no sense because Watkins won't get past Cleveland or Oakland and Robinson won't get past Oakland. Plus let Clowney go to the AFC along with Mack, why should we help Atlanta. To borrow a Mike Mayock term, Mack and Watkins are the "cleanest" players in this draft. I urge those who agree with me to cal 1-Les-Sit-Tite. Don't call its a joke.

    I don't subscribe to Jake Matthews because he's solid but not elite. How often do you get a top 5 pick anyway, why trade it away. Barr makes no sense either because he's scheme incorrect too.

    Our offense needs help and getting the passing game help will assist the running game, plus let Sam Bradford become the best QB he can be. We need to make some noise this year and while I like Greg Robinson, Watkins will be a game-changer in my view. Look what AZ did yesterday (Cromartie), look at Seattle's secondary and we all know the ***** have a good defense.

    Go Rams!
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  5. #5
    Nick's Avatar
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    From Rotoworld...

    Houston Chronicle's John McClain believes the Texans' recent roster moves indicate they will take a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick.

    McClain is a plugged into the Texans as anyone, so his opinion holds a lot of weight. The most likely candidate is UCF QB Blake Bortles. Bortles reportedly showed improved mechanics at his Pro Day and was impressive leading UCF to a victory over HC Bill O'Brien's Penn State team last season. Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater and Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel could also be on the Texans' radar.
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  6. #6
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    Re: QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

    I saw this and heard John talking on NFL Network, so I agree.

    I just heard Seattle is looking to get in the DeSean Jackson trade situation. If that's not a wake-up call that we need to score some more points then I don't know what will do it. I felt this way earlier this week when the ***** were toying with the idea, now even more so because Seattle may have the cap space to pull it off.

    Go Rams!

  7. #7
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    Re: QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised to see Houston pass on a QB, but I don't think it will be because they signed Fitzpatrick, whom I don't view as having any real impact on their decision making at the position. I still think there's a good chance they stay put and take the best QB on their board.
    Particularly in light of the relatively new rookie wage scale. If the Texans do grab a Qb, who turns out to be less than stellar, it at least will not carry the financial burden of say a Ryan Leaf. I would think this gives teams a lot more latitude especially when using a high pick on a Qb.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    One thing I'd caution is the talk about how next year's crop is going to be better. People were saying the same thing about this year's crop last year, because Bridgewater looked like an elite guy. Now he might be the second or third QB off the board. It's sort of a "grass is always greener" mentality. Those guys will face scrutiny when they come out as well, we'll see if they hold up any better.
    This was a topic of discussion on ESPN radio yesterday. And the hosts were going on about how much better next years crop of Qbs is going to be. That teams with high picks this year would do well to wait until next year to draft a Qb. Then they went on to denigrate Bridgewater and Manziel, while allowing Bortles scant praise. Your "grass is always greener" comment is apropos.

    I am glad we are not a team in need of a Qb this year. There is no Andrew Luck or RGIII topping the list this year. That said, who knows which Qb in this year's draft will have a great NFL career. We have a great deal of latitude this year, and should be able to land at least 4 impact players in the first couple of days of the upcoming draft.
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  8. #8
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    Re: QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

    I'm just glad that the QB draft situation is becoming clear for someone in March - because it's still muddled as sh** for me.

  9. #9
    RamsFanSam's Avatar
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    Re: QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

    Quote Originally Posted by Bar-bq View Post
    I'm just glad that the QB draft situation is becoming clear for someone in March - because it's still muddled as sh** for me.
    Well, to be perfectly honest, it HAS become slightly more clear to me.

    Matt Schaub, until last season, was an above average QB, with a 89.8 career rating, and a 64% completion rate. Fitz is an average QB, with a 59.8% completion rating, and a 77.5 career QB rating.

    Their TD % is the same - 4.1%.

    So, why get rid of someone who had ONE bad season just to pick up a mediocre backup QB?

    The answer is quite simple - Fitz is intended to be a backup QB. But Houston no longer has a true starting QB, so what will they do? They will DRAFT one.
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    Re: QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

    Quote Originally Posted by RamsFanSam View Post
    Well, to be perfectly honest, it HAS become slightly more clear to me.

    Matt Schaub, until last season, was an above average QB, with a 89.8 career rating, and a 64% completion rate. Fitz is an average QB, with a 59.8% completion rating, and a 77.5 career QB rating.

    Their TD % is the same - 4.1%.

    So, why get rid of someone who had ONE bad season just to pick up a mediocre backup QB?

    The answer is quite simple - Fitz is intended to be a backup QB. But Houston no longer has a true starting QB, so what will they do? They will DRAFT one.
    Absolutely.

    And he's a good guy to groom the next QB. Fitz may be the starter day one, but he won't be intended to be the long term answer.

  11. #11
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    Re: QB Draft Situation Becoming Clear

    I see the Texans being very much like the Giants of 2004. They just signed a former Rams QB who was cut by his last team specifically to start at the beginning of the season while mentoring the first pick in the draft. Then it was Kurt Warner/Eli Manning, now it's Fitzpatrick/Blake Bortles, so we're going to just call this the Walmart version.

    Will Fitzpatrick go on to lead another team in the Super Bowl? No. Will Blake Bortles win two Super Bowls? Doubt it. Is Barry wrong in thinking that no QB's go in the top 10? Yes.

    Sorry Barry, a QB is going at one, we're trading from #2, and Jacksonville hasn't gotten a mediocre veteran QB because they already re-signed him(Henne)! Jacksonville will possibly take Clowney if he falls to them, and could take Watkins. I don't see Mack though, who would be out of scheme in their 4-3. More likely, they'll take Bridgewater as they're desperate for their next attempt at a franchise QB. Cleveland could go for a QB or could go after Watkins. They have pass rushers, so I don't see Mack, but you can't have too many rushers, and at least they look to be running a 3-4. New coach though. Oakland will go after the best OT left, Atlanta would be the hopeful trade up for Clowney.
    Last edited by TekeRam; -03-24-2014 at 10:12 AM.
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