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  1. #1
    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Quarterback Risk Could Cause Massive Early Trades

    (note, this was written BEFORE the Bortles workout)

    With the shine really coming off the top three passers in this draft, combined with the overall strength of the top three rounds, the relative closeness in potential of the second tier of QBs to the top ones, and the fact that five players have seperated themselves enough to be a target worthy of a trade up, I'm getting a strong feeling that all the mock drafts are gonna get blown up right away by teams dealing up.

    I also think the cost to move up will be driven down by the value of a high second rounder, even a mid second rounder in this draft, and the number of top five teams who would deal down to fill more needs and pass on one of that top five.

    I think Jacksonville, Houston, Oakland, and Cleveland would be nuts to take a QB that early.

    I also think they may prefer an extra second to a guy that may not exactly fit need in that top five, consisting of Clowney, Robinson, Mack, Watkins, and Matthews.

    If Clowney is the best player in the draft, which is still arguable, he is a poor fit for Houston's 3-4. Mack is a better fit, but would Houston rather deal down to 15th and get their QB there?

    Jacksonville could use Watkins or the defensive players, and even the OT, though they took one first in 2013. However, t hey have so many holes that a trade down would surely make sense, where taking one of the top three passers is still risky, but not the risk of using a top five pick on an average QB.

    Any or all of the top five could deal down, maybe even quite a bit, for a blockbuster deal with a good team just needing an impact guy like Watkins, Mack, or Clowney.

    As far as the Rams, I don't see them going down so far, probably to 6th, but my guess is that the sellers market will make the return far less than many have thought.

    They'd get that 37th overall from Atlanta, but probably not much else, even in high 2015 picks.

    Is it not enough, so much so they prefer to stay put and take a top 5 guy? Perhaps, but their inclination seems to be to openly deal the pick.

    But rest assured, the examination of these passers is dropping them down draft boards as others rise.
    Last edited by Barry Waller; -03-19-2014 at 06:42 PM.

    Barry Waller

  2. #2
    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Re: Quarterback Risk Could Cause Massive Early Trades

    What happened today with Blake Bortles spectacular workout could really work in the Rams favor, whether Houston takes Bortles OR Jadeveon Clowney.

    This all started with three QBs rated about the same, then a couple more rated a bit less .

    Now it's shaping up to be one guy at the top, then the next four.

    How will this affect the Rams draft?

    It makes it so whether Clowney or Bortles or even Mack goes first, you will have teams really wanting that #2

    I think Houston will take Bortles, because of the poor scheme fit with Clowney. They could surprise with Mack though, the big sleeper early.

    Then the Rams have the wild card, and I still have no reason to believe the trade will be with Atlanta, because Snead will trade them the pick if all the offers are about the same. He and Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff are not just former fellow employees, they are good pals. They will want to help one another, as the Rams did Atlanta last year.

    I just don't see a team falling for the Manziel hype in the top five. Maybe Minny at 8.

    The top 10 talent is too good to reach for a passer, and the trade offers will be flying, with the higher picks not vastly higher paid than mid firsts.

    While free agency seems to have avoided the Rams during the biggest crowded flea market for players their old team doesn't want at their price, retaining Saffold after losing him kind of counts as a big deal.

    And Dunbar is a guy who the fans like, who brings some grit with him to the defense. he's a really popular, ougoing guy, really fr iendly and open when interviewed.

    And they got them oth for under $5 million in cap hit, with in Saffold's case a deal they can get out of easily if the guy doesn't pan out.

    As some may recall, I felt all along that ONE big defensive signing, preferably a top free safety in a nice group this year, plus retaining Saffold and Dunbar, would have been fine with me, a very smart move to not add medium range veterans, mostly with some kind of baggage, to fill out a roster and take playing tiem away from this year's draft class.

    The Rams only have about 10 spots available now on the roster, barring injury, and they will add three STARTERS, maybe four if they trade down. The third rounder in this draft could challenge to start right away. The fourth and fifth should make the roster.

    That 's seven right there, without as many as five more picks in the sixth and seventh, plus undrafted free agents, where one or more always seems to make the squad.

    Then you have a couple spots where you might trade for a guy that might get cut by a deep team, or add a guy someone drops that is better than your last guy.

    Charley Armey was a big guy about churning the bottom of the roster for prospects, as was Vermeil.

    I am disappointed that the Rams didn't get that safety on my short wish list, and they could have done it and still been way under the cap.

    I am disappointed mostly becaue the Rams now must get one of the top three safeties in this draft, and to be sure they do, they have to reach a bit at 13. Anything else could mean a run on safties early in round two could leave the Rams with Rodney McLeod as their starter again.

    That means passing on a CB, or WR , or OT at #13 who may be better prospects than the top safeties.

    It could even mean going a different way at #2 or after a short deal down, knowing #13 is going to have to be that safety.
    Barry Waller

  3. #3
    Nick's Avatar
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    Re: Quarterback Risk Could Cause Massive Early Trades

    Good points.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Bortles still go #1. He seems like the QB with the least question marks at this point and the closest thing towards prototypical size/skills. But then again, I could see Houston going BDPA or Robinson as well.

    And frankly, I think Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Oakland could all pass on QBs for better prospects at other positions. If Atlanta trades up, it may be for Mack instead of Clowney. Can Jacksonville pass on Clowney if he's there for the second best of a weak QB crop?

    This supports what I was saying earlier in the offseason: I've feared this QB class reminds people of 2011's group, where you've got one guy who could go near the top and then others that teams may reach for but won't be worth it where they're picked. I'm wondering if teams are wise to this and start looking elsewhere in the Top 5-10.

    And I agree with the idea that the trade market isn't going to be what fans are hoping for. Picks in this draft are too valuable to give up willy-nilly. If the Rams can move back with the addition of a Day 2 pick this year and maybe one next year, I'd probably take that.

    Barry, if Manziel slips to them, do you think the Cowboys could take him? I know Jerry Jones has come out and said it's not going to happen, but those comments were primarily from the context of moving up to get him. If he slides to 16, which is starting to look possible though we can all debate how probable - I wouldn't rule out the Cowboys pulling the trigger.
    Last edited by Nick; -03-19-2014 at 06:46 PM.

  4. #4
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    Rambos is offline Registered User
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    Re: Quarterback Risk Could Cause Massive Early Trades

    Lets say you guys are right and all these QB hungry teams say not to one early and take the BPA. I would think these same teams may want to get back into the first round to take one at 13. Maybe our pick at 13 is the pick the we trade back from. Maybe the Brown trade back up using their second first round pick. I could see a good market if all but Houston passes on a QB and they are still on the board.

    All it takes is two teams to want the same QB and we have a market. It's still early we will move into the private workouts and interviews still plenty of time to fall in love.

  5. #5
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    Re: Quarterback Risk Could Cause Massive Early Trades

    Hope the Rams don't trade any farther then 6th. You would get at least Matthews. There should be at least one QB in the top 5 picks. But if you can't get Atlanta's 37th overall you just stay put and take Clowney if available. If not Robinson at #2...

  6. #6
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    Re: Quarterback Risk Could Cause Massive Early Trades

    In what way has the shine come off Johnny Football?
    Bridgewater will have private workouts which will negate the Pro-Day.

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