Rams #1 Pick Progress Thread

[Nick_Weasel]

As of Sunday morning before the 1:00 games, the Rams are slightly ahead of the Bucs in the race for #1 overall with a slightly easier strength-of-schedule (SOS). For those who don't know, if both the Bucs and the Rams finish 1-15, the tie-breaker for #1 overall pick will be SOS, where the team with the easier schedule will draft first.

Now, two points I should clarify about strength of schedule - first, I included the records of teams we have not yet played, since by the end of the season these records will be relevant. Second, I included the assumption that both us and the Bucs lose the rest of our games, and included that in the SOS calculation. For example, Seattle is currently 5-8; however, they play the Bucs today and I chalked that up as a win for SEA. The reason being that SOS will probably only matter if both teams lose their remaining 3 games. SOS could come into play if we both win 1 game, but at that point we'll be tied with other teams, and if that's the case then I'll calculate things when we cross that bridge.

Now here's the point of this post - I did the calculations for us so you can follow along today and know which teams you should root for if you want the Rams to get Suh.

For each game (excluding the ones the Rams and Bucs play in) I will list which team we want to win (either because they make our strength of schedule easier or the Bucs' SOS harder) and a point value. If the team we're rooting for wins, add that number to our point total; if that team loses, subtract it from our total. A positive total means we're ahead of the Bucs, a negative number means the Bucs are ahead of us.

Current "score" heading into the Sunday games = +3

Week 15 Sunday/Monday games:
NE @ BUF - Doesn't matter
MIA @ TEN - MIA - 2 points
ARI @ DET - DET - 1 point
CLE @ KC - Doesn't matter (We should probably root for CLE since they have only 2 wins which could come into play if the Bucs and us both win another game, but that's not included in this analysis)
ATL @ NYJ - ATL - 1 point
OAK @ DEN - Doesn't matter
CIN @ SD - Doesn't matter
SF @ PHI - PHI - 3 points
GB @ PIT - Doesn't matter
CHI @ BAL - BAL - 1 point
MIN @ CAR - CAR - 3 points
NYG @ WAS - NYG - 1 point

So, for example, right now we're ahead by 3 points. If MIA wins today, you can add 2 points to us so we're at +5; if TEN wins you subtract 2 and we're at +1. Do this for every game. I will update after each week if there's any interest. At the end of the season, if our total is positive, we have the #1 overall. As you can see, the big games are SF @ PHI (a PHI win gives our SOS 2 more losses since we played SF twice and TB SOS another win since they play PHI 1 time) and MIN @ CAR.

As much as I hate losing, at least there is a silver lining, and this cheat sheet helps us at least have a rooting interest in the other games.

[AtlantaRamFan]

Thanks for figuring that out so I don't have to. Makes it a lot easier!

[Alec22]

Current score heading into 4pm games, +1. But, with cle win, rams guarenteed atleast top 3 pick even with another win.

[ludairv]

with the second pick ...the stlouis rams select....ERIC BERRY!

[Alec22]

i dnt think the rams would trade up to the #2 pick after picking suh #1????

[ludairv]

i dnt think the rams would trade up to the #2 pick after picking suh #1????

lol if they dont get the number one pick...and end up with the 2nd theyll pick berry

[AtlantaRamFan]

This could very well be a moot point since the Rams are no longer tied with the Bucs, but I find it higly unlikely the Rams would pick a safety with the #2 pick while passing on a QB. Not when they have a chance to pick one so high.

[Mooselini]

This could very well be a moot point since the Rams are no longer tied with the Bucs, but I find it higly unlikely the Rams would pick a safety with the #2 pick while passing on a QB. Not when they have a chance to pick one so high.

Not only that, we have Atogwe. We're most likely going to sign him back, the chemistry between him and Butler is really good.


It's exciting that we may have the #1 pick in the draft. We haven't seen a homerun player like Suh in such a long time.

[ludairv]

This could very well be a moot point since the Rams are no longer tied with the Bucs, but I find it higly unlikely the Rams would pick a safety with the #2 pick while passing on a QB. Not when they have a chance to pick one so high.

lol since lockers not coming out...lol there is no qb worth a top 3 pick....none...and Otagew ye he creates turnovers...but his coverage skill and tacklin are questionable...if they had trouble signing him...throughout the whole year...i wouldnt b suprrised if they let him go to another team and get pick(s) for him what ever it may be...the depth in this draft is unbelievable especially in in the D-line positions....iuno bout you but i have faith in spags' eye for talent on D ...
taking a safety so high?/ lol since when has theyre been a safety of the calibur of Berry lmao....wait sean taylor? ye palumalu was takin later...but look at that cat now...

this all depends if they get hte number 1 or not ..if they do Suh all the way!!! if not dont go for the next best option at Dlne... when the talent drop off is too much...The next best talent is berry...team needs it everyone knows it devaney said it....if our guy isnt theyre then u gotta take the player drafted next highest regardless of pos. look up the chat GO RAMS

[poejoe8]

Interesting stat on Suh: these are DT stats.

Line #1 - 98 Tkl, 23.5 TFL, 9.5 Sk, 20 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk

Line #2 - 112 Tkl, 33 TFL, 14 Sk, 48 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 0 Blk

Line #3 - 116 Tkl, 25.5 TFL, 15.5 Sk, 10 QBH, 7 PBU, 0 Int, 2 FF, 0 Blk

Line #4 - 82 Tkl, 23 TFL, 12 Sk, 24 QBH, 10 PBU, 1 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk



Line #1 = Alabama.

Line #2 = Florida.

Line #3 = Texas.

Line #4 = Ndamukong Suh. By himself.

[ludairv]

Interesting stat on Suh: these are DT stats.

Line #1 - 98 Tkl, 23.5 TFL, 9.5 Sk, 20 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk

Line #2 - 112 Tkl, 33 TFL, 14 Sk, 48 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 0 Blk

Line #3 - 116 Tkl, 25.5 TFL, 15.5 Sk, 10 QBH, 7 PBU, 0 Int, 2 FF, 0 Blk

Line #4 - 82 Tkl, 23 TFL, 12 Sk, 24 QBH, 10 PBU, 1 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk



Line #1 = Alabama.

Line #2 = Florida.

Line #3 = Texas.

Line #4 = Ndamukong Suh. By himself.

hopefully the rams hang on to that number one pick now that they have it!!

[shower beers]

Interesting stat on Suh: these are DT stats.

Line #1 - 98 Tkl, 23.5 TFL, 9.5 Sk, 20 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk

Line #2 - 112 Tkl, 33 TFL, 14 Sk, 48 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 0 Blk

Line #3 - 116 Tkl, 25.5 TFL, 15.5 Sk, 10 QBH, 7 PBU, 0 Int, 2 FF, 0 Blk

Line #4 - 82 Tkl, 23 TFL, 12 Sk, 24 QBH, 10 PBU, 1 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk



Line #1 = Alabama.

Line #2 = Florida.

Line #3 = Texas.

Line #4 = Ndamukong Suh. By himself.

that's incredible. While I wouldn't expect him to be up there with the rest of the lines in tackles, the fact that he is so close to entire teams in tackles for loss, sacks, LEADS in pass break ups and interceptions...well it just speaks volumes.

[Mooselini]

Interesting stat on Suh: these are DT stats.

Line #1 - 98 Tkl, 23.5 TFL, 9.5 Sk, 20 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk

Line #2 - 112 Tkl, 33 TFL, 14 Sk, 48 QBH, 5 PBU, 0 Int, 1 FF, 0 Blk

Line #3 - 116 Tkl, 25.5 TFL, 15.5 Sk, 10 QBH, 7 PBU, 0 Int, 2 FF, 0 Blk

Line #4 - 82 Tkl, 23 TFL, 12 Sk, 24 QBH, 10 PBU, 1 Int, 1 FF, 3 Blk



Line #1 = Alabama.

Line #2 = Florida.

Line #3 = Texas.

Line #4 = Ndamukong Suh. By himself.

Sweet jesus! That's insanity!

[poejoe8]

If the Rams don't let Spags pick Suh with the first pick, I wouldn't blame him if he resigned.

[RockinRam]

Imagine what it would look like if we had Suh on our line with an improving Chris Long, Clifton Ryan, Darell Scott, and Leger Douzable...

Insane.