Rams' Free Agency Strategy

[AvengerRam]

As I become more and more focused on the draft, I realize that the projections we make now mean very little, as we don't know how the first phases of free agency will play out.

The first question that must be answered involves Steven Jackson. If he is brought back, then I think that we can go into the 2012 with the current group of RBs (SJax, Richardson, Pead, Ganaway). If not, I think we'll need to look at the position in the middle of the draft.

The next question involves Danny Amendola. Nobody knows what kind of contract he'll be looking for. Certainly, this is the best opportunity he'll have to get a big deal in his career. I, for one, don't think he's worth "premium" money (i.e. 4 or more years/over $5M per year). Some other team might, though, which is why I'm not counting on him returning.

After Jackson and Amendola, I think the priorities should be to re-sign Hayes and Turner, who are both valuable rotation players.

While the Rams are dealing with their own FAs, decisions will also have to be made regarding some of the team's larger contracts. The only move I'd advocate there would be to try to restructure Mikell's contract to clear some space.

Once these internal issues are dealt with, the Rams will be ready to shop in the FA market. Given cap issues, I think we'll have to choose between going after one top-tier FA, or just filling in depth with short-term, low money contracts.

I'd advocate for trying to fill one primary need with a top-tier FA. I'd define primary as WR, OL (LG or RT), SLB and FS.

Here's an off-the-cuff list of the players I'd target:

1. Dwayne Bowe
2. Mike Wallace
3. Phil Loadhold
4. Andy Levitre
5. Anthony Spencer
6. Greg Jennings

It is not unlikely that most, if not all, of these players will be outside the Rams' budget. However, if we can fill one primary need with a FA signee, we should be able to fill the rest of our needs with our three Top 50 selections in the draft.

Its a long road to April.

[TekeRam]

Here's the other issue Av: What defense are we looking to build? We have been a very good 4-3 defense. Rob Ryan has historically run the 3-4. What are we doing for a base defense? What are we doing for a nickel? Are we running a 3-3-5? A 4-2-5?

This question will form a lot of what we're going to do. If we keep the 4-3, we chug along as we have been and we need a SLB, FS, rotational players along the defensive line, and probably a corner to replace Fletcher.

If we move to a 3-4, then what is our lineup? Is Long standing up? I think Quinn has to. Is Brockers going to play the nose? Do we target Manti T'eo at 16 to fill in the strong-side ILB? Free Safety is till a need as the coverage shells will still be mostly the same and we still have a need to play the deep ball.

There are some huge questions as to where we are going on defense, and those needs will shape what happens in free agency and in the draft.

[AvengerRam]

Though I have not heard (or read) it from Jeff Fisher, all indication seems to be that we'll stick with the 4-3. That said, I frankly don't see a huge problem in moving to a 3-4 with our personnel.

In a 3-4, the DL would be Langford at one DE (he's played the position in a 3-4), Brockers at NT (he certainly has the size), and either Hayes or Long at the other DE.

The ILBs would be Laurinaitis and Dunbar. The OLBs would be Quinn and either Long or, if Long is kept at DE, we could draft an OLB (there are many good 3-4 rush LBs in this draft).

[ZiaRam]

Here's the other issue Av: What defense are we looking to build? We have been a very good 4-3 defense. Rob Ryan has historically run the 3-4. What are we doing for a base defense? What are we doing for a nickel? Are we running a 3-3-5? A 4-2-5?

This question will form a lot of what we're going to do. If we keep the 4-3, we chug along as we have been and we need a SLB, FS, rotational players along the defensive line, and probably a corner to replace Fletcher.

If we move to a 3-4, then what is our lineup? Is Long standing up? I think Quinn has to. Is Brockers going to play the nose? Do we target Manti T'eo at 16 to fill in the strong-side ILB? Free Safety is till a need as the coverage shells will still be mostly the same and we still have a need to play the deep ball.

There are some huge questions as to where we are going on defense, and those needs will shape what happens in free agency and in the draft.

No way we move to a 3-4 defense primarily. Even last year we did some 3-4 line ups in certain situations but I'm sure it will be much of the same in 2013 with alot more variations and exotic blitzes and alignments that Ryan can dial up from his experience and Fisher's oversight. But no way we switch fully.

[TekeRam]

I hope that both of you are right. That either we are able to transition easily(How does Long stack up to JJ Watt? ) or that we don't actually transition, but rather display some more varied looks at times. The problem that I see, Av, is that if we end up having to spnd a first round pick to help that transition in the front seven, it's a first round pick that is not being used on Safety or OL or a TE/WR. I think this reason above all was the one that made me question our interest in Ryan to start with.

But as always, I assume that Fisher knows what he is doing, and so I will just eagerly await to hear what we're doing.

[AvengerRam]

I'd say we're one player short in the front 7 regardless of what set we run primarily. In the 4-3, it would be the SLB position.

[Rambos]

Here's my take on free agency.

I think we redo SJ deal three years and Ganaway gets released. If we do not resign SJ, Ganaway stays and Pead, Drich and Ganaway make up the backfield and we do not draft a RB.

Amendola will be the biggest free agents we sign 3-4 million per loaded with incentives to reach max value.

Turner and Hayes are resigned.

Mikell restructure are he's cut, with all the talent in this draft for safeties now is the time to reset his wage or draft two and bring in a vet.

Harvey Dahl in 2013 will be $4 million cap hit, recovering from a torn left biceps tendon and at the age 32. I know this sounds crazy as he has been the most consistent player on our line but he may be a Victim of circumstances. Giving SJ and Amendola new deals along with two first round picks to sign may cause us to make a tough decision.

I think the Rams have a group of players that need to be factored into some decisions.

Shelley Smith G
Chris Williams G
Joe Barksdale T
Rok Watkins G
Terrance Ganaway RB
Matt Daniels S


As far as playing a 3/4 I just don't see that. There is going to be a presser sometime this week so maybe we will here Fisher comment on that.

[MauiRam]

Here's my take on free agency.


Mikell restructure or he's cut, with all the talent in this draft for safeties now is the time to reset his wage or draft two and bring in a vet.

Harvey Dahl in 2013 will be $4 million cap hit, recovering from a torn left biceps tendon and at the age 32. I know this sounds crazy as he has been the most consistent player on our line but he may be a Vitim of circumstances. Giving SJ and Amendola new deals along with two first round picks to sign may cause us to make a tough decision.

There is the possibility Dahl could restructure as well. I think I'd rather have Harv than Mikell, if Harv is healthy in time to play next year. Agreed on the 3-4 issue. This is Jeff's defense, (a 4-3) and Jeff obviously believes Rob is the right guy to run it. We may see a situational 3-4 package now and then, but we are a 4-3 D overall.

[mde8352gorams]

Dahl's negotiating leverage may have gone up a bit with the Scott Wells surgery and the chance that we need some veteran leadership on the OL. I pray that Wells and Dahl return to action with no aftereffects of their surgeries. Mikell also seems a good candidate for restructuring as his open market value may not be too great given his age. In short I think AV's and Rambo's thoughts are on the mark, we have interest resigning some players like Hayes and Turner, possibly SJax for reasonable $ and Amendola will go elsewhere.

As for the 3-4 defense, good point Maui it may be situational, as we have 4 games each year against teams playing the option-read offense. I don't want to crawl into Jeff Fisher's head, but that may indeed be his thinking in hiring Ryan. Time will tell.

Go Rams!

[TekeRam]

$4M for Dahl of the Harvey variety? Best 3% of your cap you could spend.

I think Mikell is a cap casualty or reduces his salary. Bad news for him is that there is a big class of rookies as well as some younger free agents. I'm hoping that he stays on as a starting SS, and that we can bring back Stewart. I'll be happy with a low priced vet at FS and a starting FS from the draft.

Av, in regards to the front 7 needing a play regardless, you're correct. We will need a SLB for our 4-3 anyway. However, since we'll frequently be playing Nickel sets, I'd be fine looking at mid round rookies(4-5th) and bring in a cheap vet as well.

For the offensive line, I'm hoping that Rok Watkins has had a very good recovery and a good time studying his playbook. He was looking promising in his limited time before his injury. I'm hoping that he's a wild card that could either give us a really good swing man or a starter at LG. He's the reason why if we happened to land Warmack or Warford, I'd try to see if Dahl can kick out to RT full time.

[TekeRam]

One other point is that it is unlikely that we would be looking to cut either Laurinaitis or Long, and as such, we can free up some cap space by redoing their contracts and putting their salaries into signing bonuses.

[CRAZYHORNS]

As for the 3-4 defense, good point Maui it may be situational, as we have 4 games each year against teams playing the option-read offense. I don't want to crawl into Jeff Fisher's head, but that may indeed be his thinking in hiring Ryan. Time will tell.

Go Rams!

So do you believe the 3-4 defense is a better option to stop the option read offense? I've been led to believe that the 4-3 is better suited to stopping the option read offense. What evidence do you have that suggest that the 3-4 is better?

[AvengerRam]

So do you believe the 3-4 defense is a better option to stop the option read offense? I've been led to believe that the 4-3 is better suited to stopping the option read offense. What evidence do you have that suggest that the 3-4 is better?

I agree that the 4-3 is better suited to stop the read option. I'll be very surprised if we switch the base formation.

[TekeRam]

I think a 3-4 actually could be more effective, depending on the personnel. If you're running a 3-4 with large two gapping players on your line, and can tie up the blockers up front and close cut back holes, the quicker linebackers should be able to seal off the edge and stop the zone read.

That said, given that our line would probably consist of mainly one gapping Long and Langford on the edges, though Brockers could probably command both A gaps, I don't think that we would be more apt to defend the zone read in a 3-4 rather than a 4-3 where we'd have more engagement with the line to close holes.

I hope we stay with the even set, finding Sam talent in the middle of the draft is much easier than finding 3-4 OLB talent.

[TheBritishRam]

I think the Rams have a group of players that need to be factored into some decisions.

Shelley Smith G
Chris Williams G
Joe Barksdale T
Rok Watkins G
Terrance Ganaway RB
Matt Daniels S

Don't forget G Brandon Washington - very raw coming out of college and a guy who the Rams increased the salary of midseason. I'm hoping he can compete for a roster spot.