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Thread: Some Clarity in Top 15

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    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Some Clarity in Top 15

    This time of year, we draftniks no a ton of mocks, most of which are in the trash a day later, when something changes in player rankings or free agency, or a team gets rumored to like a player, which of course should be ignored.

    However, as i do mock after mock, in all different permutations, some things seem to be getting clearer.

    First of all, any way I switch picks, the first six stay the same guys, not unusual.

    The six this year are Joeckel, Jordan, Floyd, Fisher, Ansah and Milliner. I don't see any early deals , so I think that group is set in stone as of now.

    I think pick 7 and 8, barring trades, will be two players, QB Geno Smith, and T Lane Johnson, going t o Arizona and Buffalo in either order.

    Pick 9 through 15 look pretty clear too, unless another QB gets picked.

    I see the Jarvis Jones, Jon Cooper, Star Luteleilei, Xavier Rhodes, Sheldon Rochardson, Cordarelle patterson and Barkevious Mingo going here, but there could be a couple deals here, as teams try to make sure they get their biggest need. Rhodes and Luteleilei seem the most likely to draw trade attempts.

    San Diego will be a key spot at 11, whether they deal, or choose between Luteleilei and Warmack, the one guy I see that could replace Patterson as a top 15.

    Some have Philly taking Luteleilei, but I feel their need at OT is so great they go with Eric Fisher instead of him and Milliner.

    So with my belief that these will be the top 15, where does that leave the Rams at 16 and 22?

    Clearly the best player available will be Alec Ogletree, and teams like Chicago and the Giants could be wanting to trade up to get him.

    If the Rams don't trade, and those teams are not ones prone to making big deals, they are left with either Ogletree as the clear top player, or Ogletree and Warmack, if Patterson is gone.

    Ogletree fits need, and is by far the best option in the draft that could start on the strong side right away. Fisher will ignore his relatively minor college black marks.

    If they have both Warmack AND Ogletree there, trade offer could really come in.

    I see no way they take Patterson or Tavon Austin ahead of Ogletree or War mack, if they go by rating over need.

    That's especially true when you have five or six good WR prospects bunched from 22 to 32 in this draft.

    I'm seeing LB, WR and DB the top three picks. Best way to maximize that is to risk not getting your #1 WR and get the only really good 4-3 OLB prospect other than maybe Jones, a far different player than Ogletree, who is a former safety.

    The Rams can get some good guards in round three or four, and a RB as well, then look all over WR, T, C, LB, DB lat e in the draft.

    Barry Waller

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    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller

    Clearly the best player available will be Alec Ogletree.
    Clear to you, maybe, but that does not make it so. I happen to disagree.

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    Pretty much everyone has Ogletree the second 4-3 linebacker in this draft, and his workout confirmed that.
    His only negative is not size, speed, coverage ability or strength, it is off field stuff, the kind Jeff Fisher Ignores.

    It would be a tough choice between Ogletree and Warmack if both there, but not so tough passing on a WR and getting one at 22 like Allen, Patterson, Austin or Hopkins, or even Patton and Hunter in the mix.

    I just don't see traditionalist guys like Snead and Fisher taking a guard at 16. Word is they are looking at LB and WR in round one, safety , CB in round two.

    Unless Richardson, or Jones drop somehow, or the Rams deal down, I think Ogletree would be a great pick.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    Word is they are looking at LB and WR in round one, safety , CB in round two.
    Says who? And why would they even let that be known this early?
    r8rh8rmike and sosa39rams like this.

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    Pretty much everyone has Ogletree the second 4-3 linebacker in this draft, and his workout confirmed that.
    His only negative is not size, speed, coverage ability or strength, it is off field stuff, the kind Jeff Fisher Ignores.

    It would be a tough choice between Ogletree and Warmack if both there, but not so tough passing on a WR and getting one at 22 like Allen, Patterson, Austin or Hopkins, or even Patton and Hunter in the mix.

    I just don't see traditionalist guys like Snead and Fisher taking a guard at 16. Word is they are looking at LB and WR in round one, safety , CB in round two.
    Strength isn't a concern? So everyone that evaluates this guy and says he has NO ability to come into the box and effectively take on and fight off blockers, yet he has strength? Right..

    At this point to myself and probably a handful more around here, you provide great comic relief, and no substance. I applaud you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fortuninerhater View Post
    Says who? And why would they even let that be known this early?
    Don't ask questions around here buddy. You shut your mouth and listen, because Barry says who!

    , Kidding!


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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    Yeah, I don't know that I agree with Ogletree "clearly" being the best player available in the scenario you outline.

    It's certainly possible he may have been taken off some draft boards entirely after his pre-Combine DUI (the stupidity of which cannot be overstated). I wouldn't be surprised if he fell to the bottom of the first round or later. Yes, Fisher isn't afraid to take guys with character red flags, but I'm not sure I see him doing it in the mid-first this year.

    I also tend to agree with Sosa (mark the date!) when it comes to there being more than just off the field concerns with Ogletree. I've seen more than a few occasions where Ogletree not only gets washed out of a play but at times seems like he doesn't even want to take on contact of any kind.

    That strikes me as a rather significant concern when you're projecting him to the strong side in a 4-3, where he'll have to fight through blocks in order to be effective. Factor that in with 20 reps on the bench press at the Combine, and I think it's fair to wonder if Ogletree has the strength, power, and mentality to handle strong side duties. My impression at this point is that he may profile best as a Cover 2 MLB or a 4-3 WLB.

    With Joeckel, Jordan, Floyd, Fisher, Ansah, Milliner, Smith, Johnson, Jones, Cooper, Lotulelei, Rhodes, Richardson, Patterson, and Mingo off the board, it would seem to me if anyone qualifies as the "clear" best player available at that point, it's Warmack. He's almost universally considered a Top 5 prospect in this class.

    I understand the Rams' desire to improve at outside linebacker, and I guess I wouldn't be surprised to see Fisher choose Ogletree based on his athletic ability and not putting as high an emphasis on character issues, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the Rams continued to feature Dunbar heavily as their feature OLB and filled the SAM position with a mid round prospect or a veteran free agent.
    Last edited by Nick; -03-25-2013 at 12:44 PM.

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    You seem to be a numbers guy. Do you still see Jarvis Jones going in the 9-15 range after he posted a pretty awful 40 at his pro day?

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    >>Says who? And why would they even let that be known this early?>.

    Too early for me to ask Fisher or Snead, but they will havew Q&A before the draft, if you all want me to go down with any questions you might have.

    I heard it on HERE, from a fellow Clan member who knows a Rams scout and got it from him.

    Sounded credible to me, more so than some ESPN rumor from an anonymous source.

    It also makes all the sense in the world, to anyone who has really studied this draft class (AND NEXT) and free agent list.

    I don't get all the resntment for stating strong opinions forged by tons of research, watching a ton of college football this year, and 43 years as a draft maniac, and 17 covering the Rams, and interviewing basically everybody one could name in the NFL, as well as talking to others in the media face to face at practice.

    Oh did I mention the hundreds of practices I have watched in 17 years?

    When I have strong opinions, it's because I have lots of facts to support me, which I post, which seems to get people even MORE resentful, as if truth is anathema to their method.

    They look at aguy play, love him, based on a small sample, and then project him to a team with that need, which just isn't how it works. I learned this by being wrong year after year, for a long time, till I got to actually learn from some of the best ever, Hall of Famers.

    When you sit and talk to Jim Hanifan for an hour about offensive line and linemen, or Bud Carson about defense, or Bill Walsh, Bill Parcells, Jimmie Johnson, Charlie Armey, or Bill Polian about building a roster, or Dick Vermeil, Bill Cowher, Bill Belichick, about how players fit and how they win, or Mike Martz, Mike Holmgren, Steve Marriucci about how offenses work, SOME stuff kind of rubs off, which I just try to SHARE.

    If you do not want this, don't read what i have to say. If I get something wrong, I'll admit it and try to find out why, and how to improve what I do.

    Most of you are sitting out there with some $10 draft book, and forming opinions on that.

    All I need a book for is to remember all the players and not leave anyone out. That's how you get after a lot of experience, IF you listen to people who know what they are talking about, and how the NFL, and players, coaches, NFL cap managers, and yes... agents, work.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    Strength isn't a concern? So everyone that evaluates this guy and says he has NO ability to come into the box and effectively take on and fight off blockers, yet he has strength? Right..

    At this point to myself and probably a handful more around here, you provide great comic relief, and no substance. I applaud you.



    Don't ask questions around here buddy. You shut your mouth and listen, because Barry says who!

    , Kidding!
    You're right, my bad. I don't know what I was thinking.

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    I don't get all the resntment for stating strong opinions forged by tons of research, watching a ton of college football this year, and 43 years as a draft maniac, and 17 covering the Rams, and interviewing basically everybody one could name in the NFL, as well as talking to others in the media face to face at practice.

    Oh did I mention the hundreds of practices I have watched in 17 years?

    When I have strong opinions, it's because I have lots of facts to support me, which I post, which seems to get people even MORE resentful, as if truth is anathema to their method.
    Really? You don't get it? I explained it already in another thread...

    "I respect and appreciate the years of work you've put in covering the draft, though that respect wanes significantly when you feel the need to demand it or hold that experience over the heads of others as a means of implying that your way of thinking is the only correct way, despite the fact that it's very easy to find other equally or even more qualified individuals who think differently."

    People generally don't like a braggart, and yet it seems as if you think you can play the "years of experience" card and everyone will immediately acknowledge you're right and defer to your opinion. Your experience in the field is great, but it doesn't mean you're right about everything or that other reasonable differing opinions can't be expressed or even had.

    When you present and treat your opinion as fact rather than simply a well informed opinion, all the while condescending to those you disagree with by telling them how inferior their opinions are (Ex. "Most of you are sitting out there with some $10 draft book, and forming opinions on that."), then yeah, you're not going to get a warm reception.


    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    If I get something wrong, I'll admit it and try to find out why, and how to improve what I do.
    Yet I'm still waiting on you to admit to being wrong on at least three occasions within the past 2-3 days. Guess this means it's coming.

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    Most of you are sitting out there with some $10 draft book, and forming opinions on that.
    If you know of a good draft book for ten bucks, I'd sure like to know which one you'd recommend .. (I'm not talking about Lindy's and many other ones that come out before the combine and pro days).

    Keep up the good work Barry. We i.e. Clan members will frequently disagree about stuff, but that's an integral part of this forum. I really enjoy reading your posts and your opinions, whether I agree with every one is so not important!

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    Here's the problem, Barry... nobody is questioning your credentials. Heck... I asked you to share your Bio as some here may not have realized what your background is.

    Your experience does not, however, provide you with the ability to know what will occur in the future and, more importantly, it does not give you the right to disparage those who disagree with your opinions.
    Nick and r8rh8rmike like this.

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    <<It does not give you the right to disparage those who disagree with your opinions. >>

    I don't disparage them, I disparage their opinion, and I clearly, with evidence, show why. SURELY you understand this eh?

    If anyone got personally trashed, it was me, but I've got thick skin. I am opinionated, NOT arrogant, and I have very little of what one would call ego, and my friends and clients and employees would laugh at that idea.

    By the way YOUR 7 round draft was spot on, because you DO do your homework. I just have liitle patience for young draftniks who give that obsession a bad name. It either has to be an obsession, or nothing.

    You can spend countless hours researching players you never will see again probably, that you forget and start over again next year. Heck I already am looking at next year !!

    If one is just wanting to be some casual draft guesser, they should just save it and enjoy the whole t hing, rather than agonizing over it all year after year like we true draftniks do.

    Does that make me arrogant?

    Well if George Washington had lived and was still alive when George W. Bush was President, would he take it kindly if Bush blew off his advice?

    I've been a draftnik for 43 years, and so I have seen how fans, and even teams, screw it up.

    The information now available just made my obsession worse, but far more accurate and personal, because you can see highlight tapes and games on the Internet and judge more for yourself.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    >>Yet I'm still waiting on you to admit to being wrong on at least three occasions within the past 2-3 days. Guess this means it's coming. >> Uh explain??

    I already commented on the Lutelelei mixup of 40 and shuttle time, so.

    Tell me these three so called "errors" and I will respond, gladly.

    I'm not researching every single thing I say, some is from memory. No one is perfect dude.

    I know the draft though, and I know what and how guys like Snead and Fisher think.

    I've spent 43 years studying it, in depth, and have written many articles on it as a whole, not just an individual draft, though I have done that too for 16 years.

    If that's worth nothing to you, then don't listen, and don't expect me to shut up when guys post impossible trades, impossible picks, totally flawed arguments.

    Just trying to help guys get it as right as one can with this crapshoot.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Some Clarity in Top 15

    <<You seem to be a numbers guy. Do you still see Jarvis Jones going in the 9-15 range after he posted a pretty awful 40 at his pro day? >>

    Yes, because there are star OLB who run 4.75 to 4.9, like Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, to name two.

    That's a way different thing than safety. For LB, size, strength, and instincts and technique are just as important, maybe more. The fursther from the line one plays, the more speed is the issue, because of the space to cover involved.

    Jones has great pass rush skills, which isn't all about pure speed.
    Barry Waller

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