The Thing That Worries Me Most About The Second Tier QBs

[Goldenfleece]

I'm reminded of an article from the Football Outsiders from a few years back that analyzed which rounds the starters had come from for each position in the NFL. Here is an excerpt regarding the quarterback position, which was found to be most top heavy of all positions:

Top Heavy

"Top Heavy" are those positions which are almost entirely addressed in the early portion of the draft, mostly via the first round. The inference is that these are positions that need to be addressed very early in the draft. This group includes quarterback, running back, #1 wide receiver, defensive tackle, and offensive tackle.

Essentially what we see encompassed here are high-profile skill position players (QB, RB, and WR) and guys with exceptional athletic ability for their size (DT, OT). These are the types of players that are hard to miss when evaluating talent. Even a small college skill position player who puts up eye-popping statistics will grab the attention of scouts, so exceptional skill position players will rarely get overlooked. Those that do slide will 1) have durability (or "character") issues that have kept them off the field, 2) be somewhat raw in terms of technique, or 3) have been misfit to their college offensive system. Meanwhile, the "Planet Theory" guys that you'll find excelling at offensive and defensive tackle are also going to make extra large blips on scouts' radar screens. (The Planet Theory is Bill Parcells' philosophy that there are so few men both large enough and athletic enough to be NFL linemen that they are intrinsically valuable.) They may not have impressive statistics to shed light on their talents, but their "measurables" will make them very hard to miss.
Percentage with the team that drafted them:53%
Percentage of Undrafted Free Agents (or 8+): 16%

The quarterback position is especially top heavy. Exactly half of the starting QBs in the NFL (when this data was collected) were drafted in the first round. For whatever reason, the sixth round has been fairly lucrative, but pretty much anything after round one is a long shot. Interestingly, some of the better signal-callers have not been selected in the first four rounds: Tom Brady, Mark Brunell, Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger, Trent Green, and Jake Delhomme. But only Brady has been productive for the team he was originally drafted by. (If the Saints had recognized the potential in either Bulger or Delhomme, they would have been a much better team the last few years. At least the Packers got some compensation for Brunell and Hasselbeck -- and seemed to have a pretty productive guy at QB anyway.)

The QB position is by far the toughest to fill, and most teams are (and should be) willing to fill it by any means necessary. First round QBs are no sure thing, but anyone picked after the first round appears to be a very long shot that will require several years of development. And even those late round guys that do work out will probably have to move to a new team to be successful. The bottom line here is that until you've found your guy you should jump at any opportunity to acquire a quality starter, be it early in the draft, late in the draft, via trade, or through free agency. Don't pass on a QB early in the draft because you also like a guy that could be had later. If you are really in need of a QB you should probably draft them both.

The article goes on to mention that receivers and runningbacks can still be found until about round four.

[Shan the Ram Man]

If Bradford was the first overall pick in the draft, I'd still make him sit his first year in the NFL. I would make him the Backup QB taking snaps every week.

The only QB in the draft I would start right away is Clausen and I don't want Clausen at all.

I think Rams should trade down with Bucs. I don't care if it is for there 2nd pick in round 2 and a 3rd in next years draft. You save Millions not picking #1 and the Rams still get the player they want with the 3rd pick.
QB Bradford or DT G. McCoy.

DT G. McCoy fits Spags system. I'm tired of Rams drafting players to play different positions in the NFL. Example DE A. Carricker Nebraska to play DT in the NFL