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Thread: Third Round QB

  1. #1
    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Third Round QB

    When wondering if the Rams should draft a QB in round three, I thought it would be interesting to see what QBs the Rams would have drafted since they arrived in St Louis, had they drafted one in round three every year, compared to who they took there those years. I used the next two or three drafted passers after their pick.

    1995 - took K. Steve McLaughlin, QB AVAILABLE ERic Zeier, Rob Johnson (Jax got #1 by trading him later).
    1996 - Took Gerald Moore RB, QB available - Bobby Hoying, Jeff Lewis
    1997 - Took (No #3) In round two took Dexter McCleon over Jake Plummer
    1998 Took -LB Leonard Little QB available Brian Griese
    1999 - Took S Rich Coady QB available Brock Huard (Rams took Joe Germaine l rd 4
    2000.- Took Jon St Clair (last 3rd round pick), QB Available - Tom Brady, Marc Bulger
    2001 - Took - LB Brian Allen - QB Available Jesse Palmer, AJ Feely
    2002 - Took WR Eric Crouch - QB AVailable - David Garrard
    2003 - Took WR Kevin Curtis - QB available Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Seneca Wallace
    2004 - Took DT Tony Hargrove - QB available - Luke McCown (Took Jeff Smoker in round five)
    2005 - took OJ Atogwe & Richie Incognito - QB available Charlie Frye, Kyle Orton
    2006 - Took DT Claude Wroten,S Jon Alston and TE D. Byrd - QB available C. Whitehurst
    2007 - Took DB Jon Wade - QB available Trent Edwards, Troy Smith
    2008 - Took G John Greco - QB available K. O'Donnell
    2009 - Took CB Brad Fletcher - QB available Rhett Bomar
    2010 - Took Bradford #1 Rd3 took DB Jerome Murphy - QB available Colt McCoy.
    2011 - Took Austin Pettis - QB available TJ Yates
    2012 - took CB Trumaine Johnson QB available Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
    2013 - Took Stedman Bailey - QB available matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib

    SO how would that have worked out?

    The Rams got 1 star Leonard Little, in round three
    They got 8 mediocre short time starters in Incognito, Coady, Fletcher, Pettis, Atogwe, Hargrove, St Clair, Curtis.

    Murphy, Greco, Wade, McLaughlin, Moore, Allen, Crouch, Alston, Byrd and Wroten were BUSTS

    In taking that sad bunch, the Rams passed on :

    TWO Stars in Russell Wilson, Jake Plummer, and a HO'er Tom Brady
    A possible star in Nick Foles.
    A backup that fetched a #1 when dealt in Rob Johnson
    Really good backups who started some in Brian Griese, Eric Zeier, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye, Kyle orton, Luke McCown, David Garrard, Jesse Palmer, Trent Edwards, Brock Huard, and Marc Bulger.

    Guys who hung around like Chris Simms, Colt McCoy , Kevin O'Donnell, Troy Smith, Charlie Whitehurst, Bobby Hoying.

    Looking at this history, maybe taking a QB this year isn't so far fetched eh.
    Last edited by Barry Waller; -03-06-2014 at 05:50 PM.

    Barry Waller

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    shower beers's Avatar
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    Re: Third Round QB

    I would have drawn the opposite conclusion from reading these lists.

    You use terms like "mediocre" and "busts" to describe the players from list 1, and terms "really good backups", and "guys who hung around" to describe the second list.

    The terms from list 1 could easily describe list 2 as well.

    In 2012, I don't think you can't really fault the FO for passing on a QB, with Bradford still firmly in place as the starter and just a couple years into his pro career. Fisher and co. we in their first year of rebuilding and needed all the picks they could get to build their roster.

    After that, I wouldn't really want any of those QBs until you get back to 2005, with Kyle Orton as a possible backup.

    I think what you can take away from this list, is that it's a continuation of the popular thought that the majority of good quarterbacks go in round 1, and after that the odds of finding one plummet considerably. If you're looking for someone to step up in the event of an injury to lead your team to wins, this isn't a reassuring list of candidates for the most part.

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    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Re: Third Round QB

    So you wouldn't trade Leonard Little,and maybe Atogwe and St Clair, the only good players the Rams drafted in round three, for Jake Plummer, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and a first rounder acquired for Johnson?

    I know, let's put it to a vote.

    ANY of those top backups would have brought back draft picks in trade.
    Only a couple QBs were busts of this group, even if they were not starters.

    You only have 32 starter and backup QBs in the whole world any one year.
    That's a far rare commdoty than backup OL.

    But you drew the OPPOSITE conclusion?

    Wow.
    Barry Waller

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    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Re: Third Round QB

    And every team ALWAYS has a spot for a third WR to groom, so you can't say the lack of need would dictate this. If you hit on one, you can trade them for way more than a #3.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Third Round QB

    Sorry, Plummer was passed on in round two, even thoughj Vermeil loved the guy. They had no #3 that year
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Third Round QB

    But they had Tony Banks, and didn't "need" a QB, right?

    In 2000 they had Warner and Green , and didn't "need" a Tom Brady.

    I get it. But if you take a QB every year, that doesn't enter into it, as far as this study of what if.

    It shows that while good not great QBs go too high, teams pass on QB in round two and three due to other needs, and that pushes some good QBs down into the mid rounds.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Third Round QB

    So, if I'm understanding correctly, nearly every year, the Rams pass on a player who turns out to be ok in order to draft a player who doesn't always turn out to be ok.

    ok then.
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

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    Re: Third Round QB

    Well I mentioned I went back to 2005, but if you insist...


    I'm not getting what you're asking...would I trade our picks in hindsight(across different drafts - just how would we do that?) for players known to be better later on? Yes, you got me. I would trade St. Clair for Tom Brady. I really can't believe that would be your argument though, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt there.

    I'll go over each player you mentioned compared to the actual selections available in their draft.



    "1998 Took -LB Leonard Little QB available Brian Griese"
    --When we took Little in 1998, which of the three of Plummer, Wilson, and Tom Brady (who you have/had listed twice by the way) were available to the Rams? Again, I don't get what you're doing. I would gladly take Little over Brian Griese though.

    "2000.- Took Jon St Clair (last 3rd round pick), QB Available - Tom Brady, Marc Bulger"
    --Both of these QBs (one of which we ended up with!) lasted much later than round 3. That means every other team passed on them as well, multiple times. Are you suggesting we go after projected 5-7 round quarterbacks in the 3rd round this year on the chance we'll hit on another Tom Brady? Surely you would think our front office was foolish if we took someone like say, Stephen Morris in the 3rd this year. Otherwise I don't get what you're suggesting.

    "2005 - took OJ Atogwe & Richie Incognito - QB available Charlie Frye, Kyle Orton"
    -- I would most definitely take the duo of Atogwe & Incognito(provided he packs up a couple years before he goes full nutjob) over Charlie Frye and Kyle Orton.

    The only argument you seemed to have made to me is that if our front office was able to go back in time, they would make different picks. Of course they would select Tom Brady if they could do it over again, but then he wouldn't even make it to the third round would he?

    In general, the ratio of misses to hits is way, way in the favor of misses. Cherry picking examples won't lead me to ignore the graveyard of quarterbacks that didn't pan out.

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    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Re: Third Round QB

    >>So, if I'm understanding correctly, nearly every year, the Rams pass on a player who turns out to be ok in order to draft a player who doesn't always turn out to be ok.

    ok then.>>

    Uh, no, it means that the Rams passed on Tom Brady, Marc Bulger, Jake Plummer, Nick Foles, and Russell Wilson, to take :John St Clair, Dexter McCleon, and Trumaine Johnson .
    And passed on Rob johnson for Steve McLaughlin
    passed on Kyle Orton for Richie Incognito
    Passed on David garrard for Eric Crouch
    Passed on Trent Edwards for Jon Wade

    It shows that NEED for a QB i round three should not mean you don't take one there, because those rd three guys at other positions have about a 25% chance of making it.

    Even a QB drafted in round five or six, might be the 7th best available in a year, where the other positions at rd 5 are the 15th best at their position.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Third Round QB

    For the record though, I'm not even against the idea of taking a QB in round 3. We just shouldn't draft him to be Tom Brady, or get us a future 1st round pick.

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    Re: Third Round QB

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    >>So, if I'm understanding correctly, nearly every year, the Rams pass on a player who turns out to be ok in order to draft a player who doesn't always turn out to be ok.

    ok then.>>

    Uh, no, it means that the Rams passed on Tom Brady, Marc Bulger, Jake Plummer, Nick Foles, and Russell Wilson, to take :John St Clair, Dexter McCleon, and Trumaine Johnson .
    And passed on Rob johnson for Steve McLaughlin
    passed on Kyle Orton for Richie Incognito
    Passed on David garrard for Eric Crouch
    Passed on Trent Edwards for Jon Wade
    You might be intending to say something different, but you're saying EXACTLY what Hub suggested.
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    Re: Third Round QB

    It always looks great from the rear view mirror.

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    Re: Third Round QB

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    >>Both of these QBs (one of which we ended up with!) lasted much later than round 3. That means every other team passed on them as well, multiple times. >>

    I explained this. teams pass on QB in round three, four even, because they don't value the position if they have a good starter and backup. I say that's a mistake, and this proves it.
    I'm still not convinced. You cherry picked a couple exceptions and called it proof. I could just as easily list Frye, Bomar, Jeff Lewis to create "proof" that you shouldn't draft a QB in round 3. But that's just silly. I'm trying to explain that from the list you created, I see more opportunities to miss on a pick than to hit on a pick. It has nothing to do with who the Rams took instead. They missed on a lot of players. No one is arguing that they didn't, or that we wouldn't have swapped them for a different player had we had the luxury to nitpick after the fact.

    If the round doesn't matter, why not take one in round 4 then? Or 5?


    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    Again, you are pointing at some guys who were solid backups from my list as if they are like Claude Wroten or Jon Wade in their value to a team in their career.


    That is wrong.
    The only player I recall specifically calling out (besides the obvious gems of the group) was Kyle Orton. And I also said I would take Atogwe over him, and I still would.

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    I guess what I am saying is that if Garopollo or Mccarron is there in round three, they should take them, and maybe even look hard at a couple other guys, instead of taking another Rich Coady at safety.
    I happen to agree with that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    You obviously don't understand the difference in the draft when it comes to QBs.
    Clearly the Rams didn't either.
    I'll be the first to admit I'm not up to snuff in professionally evaluating quarterbacks. All of the Rams front office configurations (not to mention the other front offices of all the other teams in the league, historically throughout time that did the exact same thing you're saying is wrong - and you have proof), they don't get it. But you do. Come one, man.


    I'm really not trying to argue just for arguments sake, so don't take it that way. Just a spirited debate (where we happen to both agree on the same end-goal). We saw different outcomes from a single list.

    Thank you for putting together the list too, it was interesting to see a list of Quarterbacks available like that, over a period of time.
    Last edited by r8rh8rmike; -03-06-2014 at 07:18 PM. Reason: Deleted inappropriate comment.
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    Re: Third Round QB

    Disagreements are fine, spirited debate is fine, getting personal with inappropriate comments is not alright. Let's keep things civil and refrain from attacking other members simply for having a different opinion.

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    Re: Third Round QB

    If you can keep the discussion football related, and not get into insults or things like politics, you won't have your posts deleted.

    Feel free to contact Dez if you have an issue with how I moderate threads.
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