Thomas on 1380: It's down to the two Longs

[TekeRam]

Exactly BM, of anything on defense, we need solid tacklers more than anything. Get the fundamentals first, then go for flash. When we get an average defense THEN we can start looking for the bone jarring hits. Until then, I just want the stop.

You are right niner, I did just pull that out of my butt, but the point is still valid. By giving up the two tackles, you're counting on someone else making the play, somewhere downfield, as opposed to a somewhat short gain. And you have to admit our linebackers and secondary aren't exactly known for their tackling skills. Going for the flashy hit sometimes whiffs pretty bad too, and if it happens when you're the only one holding down a side, that run goes for a long way.

[Fortuninerhater]

4.5 every time. 2.5 'snot-rockers' gets a player on espn, 4.5 'drag-downs' gets games won.

The Rams need more tackles in 2008. We couldn't tackle anybody in the 4th quarter.

Every tackle has a chance to force a turn-over. The 'snot-rocking' tackle may have a higher chance of causing a fumble, but are the odds enough to outwiegh the extra two tackles per game. No way.

I would be fine with VG if we could trade down. He is not a #2 pick.

All a matter of opinion. I say yes way. You guys forget that there are 10 other players who could be making those plays. This is not a 1 on 1 sport.

Just because one player averages 4.5 tackles a game, that doesn't necessarily mean that the Rams are making more tackles. They could even be making far less tackles for that matter.

So give me the 2.5 by one player that's far more likely to cause a turnover, and you can have your guy that averages 4.5 drag downs a game.

[BM_Face]

All a matter of opinion. I say yes way. You guys forget that there are 10 other players who could be making those plays. This is not a 1 on 1 sport.

Just because one player averages 4.5 tackles a game, that doesn't necessarily mean that the Rams are making more tackles. They could even be making far less tackles for that matter.

So give me the 2.5 by one player that's far more likely to cause a turnover, and you can have your guy that averages 4.5 drag downs a game.

Well, yes it is all a matter of opinion. My opinion is based on a few facts I will share to give you an idea of my reasoning.

In 2007 the Rams ranked 30th in tackling. On the specific point of tackling and causing fumbles we know the following stats. The Rams had 17 forced fumbles (NFL average is 17.4), and recovered 9 (NFL average is 11.8). None were returned for touchdowns by the Rams (NFL average is 1).

So the Rams were almost exactly average in forcing fumbles, but below the curve in recovering the loose ball. Defense is about fundamentals, tackling and pursuing the football.

You say you will take a player that has 2.5 tackles per game if he's "far more likely to cause a turnover", which is very hard to argue against. It is also very hard to quantify 'far more likley'. I will still take 4.5 (more total tackles equals more chances to swipe the ball), but then that is just my opinion. GoRams!

[HUbison]

So give me the 2.5 by one player that's far more likely to cause a turnover

Except that in this case, the 2.5 player has NEVER forced a fumble. His only turnover came from an interception in '06. On the other hand, the 4.5 player has 3 forced fumbles, as well as an interception. Not to mention a blocked punt (compare to 0), 17 passes defended (compare to 2), and 9 QB hurries (compare to 1).

So, statistically, across the board, the 4.5 player outperformed the 2.5 player. But that shouldn't be a surprise, should it?

And isn't it funny that this whole discussion is built on the assumption that Gholston is somehow a "snot-rocker" (lovin' that phrase, btw) compared to Long, the "drag-down"? Those labels aren't even reality, yet we insist on clinging to that fallacy. Intellectual entropy has set in, my friends.

[HUbison]

If Vernon Gholston can equal a guy (Chris Long) in sacks (14), with no polish to his game, using mostly his God-given ability, imagine how scary this guy will be when he learns how to play.

He's been playing the game since he was 14 (for the record, Chris Long first played football at 10). He has spent 4 years being mentored by one of the top coaching staffs in all of NCAA. He is the centerpiece of a defense that revolves around him.

Vernon Gholston is not some untrained monkey that fell off a zoo truck and rolled onto a football field. He has been playing the game since he was a sophomore in high school, 7 years ago. He's had all that time to learn the game, yet some magical light is going to switch on over the next two years that will put him on an equal mental level to Chris Long? He got pulled off his high school defense because he couldn't digest the play book for linebackers, but at the NFL level he is going to just absorb it somehow?

[HUbison]

And frankly, I'm rather tired of the subject. Say what you want about VG, but in two years time (barring injuries) Vernon Gholston will be better than Chris Long, mark my word.

Well, we can mark them, but will it do any good? Chris Long has outperformed Vernon Gholston for the most recent two years, yet you steadfastly hold (which is admirable, btw) to the superiority of Vernon Gholston. When the same is true in two years, will your allegiance to the man over materiality be any different?

[txramsfan]

To get off topic (don't you just love it when someone says Not to get off topic BUT, yes to get off topic is what you meant) all this draft talk reminds me of Ogre on Revenge of Nerds II......


"What if C A T really spelled D O G?"

[Fortuninerhater]

Well, we can mark them, but will it do any good? Chris Long has outperformed Vernon Gholston for the most recent two years, yet you steadfastly hold (which is admirable, btw) to the superiority of Vernon Gholston. When the same is true in two years, will your allegiance to the man over materiality be any different?

And nothings changed at this point. I"ll still take Gholston, and he is still the best pass rusher in the draft. Time will tell if he's the best DE.

The only problem I have is I'm almost certain he will be doing his damage elsewhere.

[Nick]

He has been playing the game since he was a sophomore in high school, 7 years ago. He's had all that time to learn the game

But not as much time to learn the intricacies of the defensive end position, as he was an offensive lineman and linebacker in high school and I believe was recruited to Ohio State as a linebacker. He began to make the transition as a true freshman, was hindered due to injury the following year, and only in '06 and '07 did he get on the field as a starter seeing significant time.

He got pulled off his high school defense because he couldn't digest the play book for linebackers

...and then returned to the position as a senior where he was very impressive.

I agree with you somewhat in that obviously Gholston isn't completely new to the position. But there's a definite lack of experience and on-field playing time, and to not recognize that would be a mistake.

To me, his background suggests he still has some growing to do. I think as a college end, he was able to get by quite a bit on his freakish athletic ability, though I think his versatility as a pass rusher is generally underrated.

If he can continue to develop and combine his skills as an athlete with better on-field instincts and more refined pass rush technique, then IMO he really could be one heck of a game-changer.

[Fortuninerhater]

He's been playing the game since he was 14 (for the record, Chris Long first played football at 10). He has spent 4 years being mentored by one of the top coaching staffs in all of NCAA. He is the centerpiece of a defense that revolves around him.

Vernon Gholston is not some untrained monkey that fell off a zoo truck and rolled onto a football field. He has been playing the game since he was a sophomore in high school, 7 years ago. He's had all that time to learn the game, yet some magical light is going to switch on over the next two years that will put him on an equal mental level to Chris Long? He got pulled off his high school defense because he couldn't digest the play book for linebackers, but at the NFL level he is going to just absorb it somehow?

Let's see here, a 4 year edge in organized football according to you, plus a HOF dad for 21 years. Uh yeah, I'd say that's a pretty significant difference.

Let me ask you this, if you had a 4 year advantage on someone on your job and you were both 21 years old, wouldn't you think that would be a huge advantage for you all things being equal?

OK, now let's take it a step further and say for arguements sake, your father is the head of the company. And he has trained you since you were old enough to absorb the imformation. Now, wouldn't you say that you would have a tremendous edge on your competition?

If you answered "No", to either of those questions, you are not being truthful.

Having established that Vernon Gholston was at a huge disadvantage to Chris Long even before he ever thought about playing football, it is truly amazing that he has advanced this much in such a short time. He is no worse than the 4th option for most of the teams in the top five. Although you and a few other posters paint a very gloomy picture of his progress to date, he actually has been pretty remarkable, to say nothing of his superior upside potential.

People do progress whether you want to believe that or not. And as they progress things usually get easier. Having said that, he may never get the mental understanding of the game that Chris has. Thanks in large part to having Howie as his dad. But I say he won't have to. All he needs to do is approach Chris's mental makeup, and couple that with his God-given ability and he would be no worse than just as good as Chris Long. And by my measuring stick, he will have surpassed Chris.

I'm sure had Vernon had a HOF dad to turn to, he'd probably be far more advanced in his mental approach too. So what are we actually saying here?
Well I'm saying what I've been saying all this time. Give Vernon 2 years.

He got pulled off his high school defense because (YOU say) he couldn't digest the play book.

So what, Michael Jordan got cut from his high school basketball team because his coaches said he couldn't play. And the rest is history.

[HUbison]

Let's see here, a 4 year edge in organized football according to you, plus a HOF dad for 21 years.

Because between the age of 10 and 13 is where NFL dreams are built. Come on, niner. And football was Chris's idea, not his dad. SI did a story on this. Howie never brought up football to his sons. They chose it on their own. This football class envy that keeps being displayed simply is not reality.

Let me ask you this, if you had a 4 year advantage on someone on your job and you were both 21 years old, wouldn't you think that would be a huge advantage for you all things being equal?

The answer is yes, that would be an advantage...........unless of course those 4 years came from middle school. Not a lot of on-the-job training for 10 year olds, is there?

OK, now let's take it a step further and say for arguements sake, your father is the head of the company. And he has trained you since you were old enough to absorb the imformation. Now, wouldn't you say that you would have a tremendous edge on your competition?

Yes, that would be an advantage.......unless of course the dad isn't the head of the company, but just retired from the industry, and never mentioned the family business to me until I was in middle school and decided on my own to pursue it.

Having established that Vernon Gholston was at a huge disadvantage to Chris Long even before he ever thought about playing football,

Wow, not quite there yet, are we? I thought Vernon Gholston was an athletic freak compared to the real estate agent softball league physicality of Chris Long? You can't coach athleticism, so wouldn't that in fact put Gholston at an ADvantage over Chris Long?

So, having established that Vernon Gholston was at a huge advantage to Chris Long even before he ever thought about playing football, it is truly amazing that he has advanced this much in such a short time. Long has outperformed Gholston on the field, and equaled his position specific efforts in the drills.

Although you and a few other posters paint a very gloomy picture of his progress to date, he actually has been pretty remarkable

This is a complete misrepresentation and you know it. I have said over and over and over and over again that IF Chris Long is gone at #1, then I am all for taking Vernon Gholston. He's a great player, and my choice for the #2 option. However, nothing that I've seen makes me believe that he is better than Chris Long for this defense.

I'm sure had Vernon had a HOF dad to turn to, he'd probably be far more advanced in his mental approach too.

What makes you sure? There's plenty of HOF dads whose kids never played in the NFL.

He got pulled off his high school defense because (YOU say) he couldn't digest the play book.

I didn't say anything. Take it up with nfl.com....

As a sophomore at Cass Tech, Gholston was first tried at linebacker, but he was overwhelmed by the plays he needed to know to play that position.

I will once again make my obligatory statement: If Chris Long is gone, draft Vernon Gholston @ 2.

I'm all for it. He would do a great job for this defense. I'd celebrate by doing the dance of a thousand monkeys. Gholston is the best pure pass rusher in the draft and would be an asset for this defense.

However, he's not the complete player that Long is. He hasn't shown the run stopping ability of Long. He hasn't shown the awareness or instincts of Long. And his reward might be a 9, but his risk is an 8. Long's reward is also a 9, but his risk is more like a 4. Why chose high risk / high reward when moderate risk / high reward is staring you in the face?

[txramsfan]

Gosh, with all the bickering between taking Gholston or C Long or Dorsey, I sort of want the Rams to take McFadden and watch all kinds of stuff happen on this board.

Geez, this draft isn't going to make this team a Super Bowl contender this year anyway. It's going to AT LEAST take another good draft.

[HUbison]

But not as much time to learn the intricacies of the defensive end position, as he was an offensive lineman and linebacker in high school and I believe was recruited to Ohio State as a linebacker. He began to make the transition as a true freshman, was hindered due to injury the following year, and only in '06 and '07 did he get on the field as a starter seeing significant time.

Well Nick, for that matter, he still hasn't learned the inticacies of a true 4-3 DE. From the moment he set foot on campus, he studied the LEO position as Mike Kudla's backup. He had all of his first two years on campus to work with upperclassmen and the coaches to perfect his skills, and then turn it on his last two years. And he did! He got after the QB with the best of them in college. Will he adapt to the 4-3 DE position in this defense? Or maybe take over Haslett's Buck End position? I bet he'd do a fine job. But why ask the question if the better fit (Chris Long) is available?

...and then returned to the position as a senior where he was very impressive.

Quite impressive! All-State at both OL and LB. Rivals.com had him as the #11 DE prospect in the nation. But, Nick, you know as well as I do, with such a high pick, no stone can go unturned. If he had a problem with a high school defensive playbook, the question has to at least be asked.

I agree with you somewhat in that obviously Gholston isn't completely new to the position. But there's a definite lack of experience and on-field playing time, and to not recognize that would be a mistake.

As big a mistake as drafting him ahead of a better player with more experience?

To me, his background suggests he still has some growing to do. I think as a college end, he was able to get by quite a bit on his freakish athletic ability, though I think his versatility as a pass rusher is generally underrated.

Nick, they're 21 and 22 year old kids. They ALL have growing to do. In fact, if any of these kids do not have growing to do, don't draft them. If present condition constitutes the pinnacle for any of them, I don't want them.

And UNDERrated? Nick, most everyone agrees he's the best pure pass rusher in the draft. It's his pass rush abilities that will make him a top 6 pick. How is he an underrated pass rusher?

If he can continue to develop and combine his skills as an athlete with better on-field instincts and more refined pass rush technique, then IMO he really could be one heck of a game-changer.

Globally, the same is true of everyone of these guys. In fact, the only ones who will spend any significant time playing Sunday football HAVE to continue to develop. Locally, are you willing to swallow that "IF" to the tune of $30M guaranteed with Chris Long still on the table?



And I reiterate.......I got nothing against Gholston. Chances are, he will be great. However, chances are better that Chris Long will be as good or better.

[TekeRam]

Tx, I think it would approximate Hiroshima in 1945.

I just love the line

I thought Vernon Gholston was an athletic freak compared to the real estate agent softball league physicality of Chris Long?

Classic.

[txramsfan]

I've heard that the main knock on Gholston is that going forward he's great but if he has to double back and pursue he struggles. So, if he runs past the QB and then the QB dumps off a screen he could be in trouble. Plus, I've also heard he's got alot of work to do against the run.