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    Todd McShay's Updated First Round Mock

    OT Thomas moves up to No. 2
    By Todd McShay
    Scouts Inc.
    Updated: March 27, 2007

    With the Falcons and Texans swapping first-round picks as a result of the trade that sent QB Matt Schaub to Houston, it's time to update my mock draft.

    + -- Underclassman

    1. Oakland Raiders (2-14)
    Projected pick: +JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
    Needs: QB, OT, WR, DT, G
    Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson is the best overall player in this year's class. But unless the Raiders trade WR Randy Moss or this pick, it looks like Johnson won't be the No. 1 pick. The Raiders have a glaring hole at quarterback and Russell has the exceptional physical tools to warrant this selection.

    2. Detroit (3-13)
    Projected pick: Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
    Needs: ILB, QB, S, CB, TE, OT, DE
    The Lions' chances of trading out of this spot diminished when the Texans, who were interested in QB Brady Quinn, struck a deal with the Falcons for QB Matt Schaub. Drafting Quinn is still a possibility, but if stuck at No. 2, the team will likely choose to upgrade around the QB position. It's too high to take players at positions of more pressing need, such as ILB Patrick Willis, S LaRon Landry and CB Leon Hall. Instead, Thomas should be the pick. He's one of only a few good values at No. 2 overall and can be used to help solidify the offensive line.

    3. Cleveland (4-12)
    Projected pick: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
    Needs: RB, CB, OT, DE, QB
    From the sounds of it, Cleveland's coaches would go with the player who can make a more immediate impact (RB Adrian Peterson), but the team's front office wants to use this on a future franchise quarterback (Quinn). We all know which side will win that battle.

    4. Tampa Bay (4-12)
    Projected pick: +Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
    Needs: DT, DE, S, WR, OT
    The Bucs have other more pressing needs but it won't be easy for general manager Bruce Allen and coach Jon Gruden to pass on the draft's most dynamic offensive weapon.

    5. Arizona (5-11)
    Projected pick: +Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
    Needs: OT, OLB, CB, DT, DE, TE, S, P
    The Cardinals' first priority is OT Thomas. If he's off the board, they will likely look to trade down -- and they should have a dancing partner with Peterson still on the board. Finally, if stuck at No. 5, the team will have a tough internal battle between value (Peterson) and need (DE Gaines Adams). Value should always win out.

    6. Washington (5-11)
    Projected pick: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
    Needs: DT, DE, G, S, WR
    Adams is the perfect fit for a Redskins defense that set a team record for the fewest sacks in a season (19) in 2006. The 6-foot-5, 258-pound end ran the fastest 40 time of all the defensive linemen at the combine and also notched 29 career sacks at Clemson.

    7. Minnesota (6-10)
    Projected pick: +LaRon Landry, S, LSU
    Needs: WR, DE, CB, TE, C/G, DT
    CB Hall would be a strong consideration. The team could also reach for WR Ted Ginn Jr. or DE Jamaal Anderson. With that in mind, the Vikings would be wise to entertain any trade-down offers that would keep them in the top 20 and give them an extra pick or two later on. If they can't move, the Vikings should take Landry, one of the elite prospects in this year's class.

    8. Atlanta (7-9)
    (from Houston)
    Projected pick: Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
    Needs: S, DE, OT, DT, RB
    The Falcons would love for Landry to fall to them at No. 8, where they now pick following the Schaub trade. They also should strongly consider OT Levi Brown. However, don't be surprised if new head coach Bobby Petrino steers GM Rich McKay in the direction of Okoye, who played for Petrino at Louisville. The 19-year-old has bulked up to 300-plus pounds and recently ran the 40 in the 4.8-second range at an on-campus workout.

    9. Miami (6-10)
    Projected pick: Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
    Needs: OT, QB, DT, S
    The Dolphins need help at offensive tackle and Brown is the only upper-echelon prospect at the position after Thomas. Other possibilities include Landry (S), Okoye (DT), Michigan's Hall (CB) and Alan Branch (NT).

    10. Houston (6-10)
    (from Atlanta)
    Projected pick: Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
    Needs: CB, WR, OLB, S, DT
    The Texans are no longer handcuffed by their need to find David Carr's replacement at quarterback. However, they still need to find playmakers at wide receiver, in the secondary and along the defensive line. Hall is the best value in this scenario and would be a significant upgrade at cornerback opposite Dunta Robinson.

    11. San Francisco (7-9)
    Projected pick: +Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
    Needs: WR, OLB, DT/DE, S, OT, RB, ILB, C
    Branch's stock is dropping due to concerns regarding his work ethic and conditioning. However, it will be awfully tough for the Niners to pass on a 323-pounder with his type of mobility.

    12. Buffalo (7-9)
    Projected pick: Patrick Willis, ILB, Mississippi
    Needs: RB, CB, ILB, DT, TE
    Willis has the workout numbers to match his production as a three-year starter in the SEC. The Bills could reach for RB Marshawn Lynch here but they'd be wise to go with Willis instead, and then draft a running back such as Ohio State's Antonio Pittman in Round 2.

    13. St. Louis (8-8)
    Projected pick: +Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
    Needs: DT, DE, C, LB, CB, RB
    The Rams will focus on defense early in the draft. With Okoye and Branch off the board, there isn't an ideal fit at defensive tackle. Taking Anderson would make a great deal of sense, as he has the size and agility to emerge as an impact full-time starter in the future. As a rookie, Anderson could rotate with newly acquired James Hall at the end spot opposite Leonard Little.

    14. Carolina (8-8)
    Projected pick: Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State
    Needs: S, ILB, TE, OT, DE
    Posluszny has experience playing inside and outside linebacker, which makes him a good fit for a Panthers defense that needs depth and future starters at both spots. Posluszny's stock is back on the rise after his outstanding showing at Penn State's recent pro day.

    15. Pittsburgh (8-8)
    Projected pick: +Jarvis Moss, DE/OLB, Florida
    Needs: OLB, CB, RB, DE, C
    Moss is a bit raw but a great athlete. Moss is fluid enough to fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker and his frame is big enough to add bulk for when the Steelers eventually move to a 4-3 defensive scheme under new head coach Mike Tomlin.

    16. Green Bay (8-8)
    Projected pick: +Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
    Needs: RB, WR, TE, S, DT, OLB, CB, G
    The Packers are in desperate need of offensive playmakers. QB Brett Favre could help maximize Lynch's explosiveness and versatility if they're working in the same backfield in 2007.

    17. Jacksonville (8-8)
    Projected pick: Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
    Needs: S, DE, QB, WR, DT
    The Jaguars could use this pick on a better pure pass-rusher or on a safety like Nelson, but Carriker is the better value in this scenario. At 296 pounds, Carriker has the size, strength, quickness and technique to develop into a quality every-down starter at the next level.

    18. Cincinnati (8-8)
    Projected pick: +Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State
    Needs: CB, DT, OLB, DE, TE
    Timmons didn't help his draft stock at the combine, where he was 2 inches shorter and two-tenths of a second slower in the 40 than expected. Still, Timmons is an outstanding athlete who flashed playmaking ability in his one season as a full-time starter at FSU. He also doesn't have any character issues, which is critical for the Bengals.

    19. Tennessee (8-8)
    Projected pick: +Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State
    Needs: WR, DT, RB, CB, DE, G
    The Titans would be elated if Ginn Jr. slipped to them at No. 19. Ginn Jr. has the speed to stretch the field vertically for QB Vince Young, who needs more weapons to work with on the perimeter. The Titans would benefit from Ginn Jr.'s world-class speed in the return game, as well.

    20. N.Y. Giants (8-8)
    Projected pick: Aaron Ross, CB/RS, Texas
    Needs: OLB, CB, OT, WR, DT
    Outside linebacker is a bigger need, but the Giants would be reaching a bit with Posluszny and Timmons off the board. The smart play would be to draft a top cornerback like Ross here, and then target a linebacker such as Oklahoma's Rufus Alexander later on Day 1.

    21. Denver (9-7)
    Projected pick: Anthony Spencer, DE, Purdue
    Needs: DE, WR, S, DT, OT, CB
    If the Broncos aren't able to trade up for one of the elite defensive ends, wide receivers or offensive tackles in this year's class, I think the wise move is to trade out of this pick. Spencer is a good player and proved he could disrupt as a senior (26.5 tackles for loss). However, the Broncos could trade back in the first round and still get Spencer -- or a player of his quality such as OT Joe Staley or WR Robert Meachem. Then they could use all the additional Day 1 picks to get in position for quality players such as DE Charles Johnson, WR Steve Smith, S Brandon Meriweather and OT Tony Ugoh.

    22. Dallas (9-7)
    Projected pick: +Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
    Needs: OT, CB, WR, DE, C
    Instead of reaching for OT Staley here, the Cowboys could get a much better value at cornerback or wide receiver. Revis' outstanding workout at Pitt's recent pro day solidified his spot in Round 1.

    23. Kansas City (9-7)
    Projected pick: +Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
    Needs: WR, OT, DT, CB, DE
    Jarrett's draft stock could significantly fluctuate depending on his speed at USC's pro day later this month. As it stands right now, Jarrett is one of the top four receivers in this class and he's enough of a playmaker to warrant the Chiefs' consideration at pick No. 23. If Kansas City doesn't go with a wide receiver, it could find a similar value at cornerback or it could reach a bit for OT Staley or DT Justin Harrell.

    24. New England (12-4) (from Seattle)
    Projected pick: +Jon Beason, LB, Miami
    Needs: ILB, S, CB, OLB, RB, OT
    Beason hasn't had a great postseason since tweaking his knee at the combine. Still, he's an underrated talent with the size, speed and instincts that the Patriots will be looking for in Tedy Bruschi's eventual replacement.

    25. N.Y. Jets (10-6)
    Projected pick: +Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
    Needs: CB, TE, ROT, NT, OLB
    Instead of using this pick on more pressing positions of need, the Jets could snatch the only elite talent in this year's weak crop of tight ends. Olsen would be a valuable weapon for Chad Pennington now and Kellen Clemens in the future.

    26. Philadelphia (10-6)
    Projected pick: Michael Griffin, S, Texas
    Needs: ILB, S, CB, DE, RB, WR, QB
    The Eagles have a more pressing need at inside linebacker but there's simply not a player of value available here. Griffin brings experience and versatility to the table after notching 250 tackles during his last two seasons at Texas.

    27. New Orleans (10-6)
    Projected pick: +Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
    Needs: CB, LB, DT, DE, TE, WR, G, QB
    The Saints desperately need a youth influx at cornerback. Houston needs to become more aggressive in run support and his technique needs some polishing. However, he has the speed, agility and strength to hold up on an island versus some top NFL receivers.

    28. New England (12-4)
    Projected pick: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
    Griffin would be a better fit if he falls because he's more versatile than Nelson. Eric Weddle would also be a consideration, but I think Weddle's value is in the second- to third-round range. Nelson has very good range and playmaking potential as a center fielder-type free safety. Also remember that head coach Bill Belichick loves players from Florida because he has tremendous respect for coach Urban Meyer.

    29. Baltimore (13-3)
    Projected pick: Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
    Needs: CB, OLB, OT, ILB, FB
    The Ravens will look to target the best available player at cornerback, linebacker and offensive tackle. In this scenario, Staley is the pick. He's a fringe first-round talent with excellent feet and the frame to get bigger/stronger. With Jonathan Ogden threatening to retire, Staley immediately becomes the future at left tackle for the Ravens.

    30. San Diego (14-2)
    Projected pick: +Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
    Needs: S, WR, ILB, NT, CB
    The Chargers would be thrilled if the speedy Meachem fell to them at No. 30 overall. If Meachem is off the board, LSU's Dwayne Bowe would be another strong possibility. The team also could take the best available safety or linebacker.

    31. Chicago (13-3)
    Projected pick: Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
    Needs: DT, OLB, RB, TE, OT, G, S, WR
    The Bears have several other positions of need they could use this pick to address, including defensive tackle and outside linebacker. However, they also have the luxury of capitalizing on a player who drops to them late in the first round. In this scenario, Bowe would be a steal. His stock has dropped a bit due to below-average 40 times run during the postseason. However, Bowe is a big, strong and athletic receiver who could emerge as a very good starter in the NFL.

    32. Indianapolis (12-4)
    Projected pick: Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
    Needs: OLB, DT, G, CB, RB
    The Colts' biggest need is at outside linebacker after losing unrestricted free agent Cato June (Buccaneers). Beason is a possibility if he's available. Otherwise, the Colts would go with the better value here in Harrell and then address OLB later in the first day. Harrell is the type of quick and aggressive interior player who the Colts look for to fit their scheme.

  2. #2
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    Re: Todd McShay's Updated First Round Mock

    One thing I like about this mock as opposed to others is that McShay stresses value instead of need. I'm a firm believer in selecting value over need any day.

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    Re: Todd McShay's Updated First Round Mock

    Does he really think that Jamaal Anderson will fall to us at #13? Has Anderson been dropping and, if so, what are the reasons? I.E. Did he have a poor workout at his Pro day try out?


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    Re: Todd McShay's Updated First Round Mock

    Quote Originally Posted by RAMarkable View Post
    Does he really think that Jamaal Anderson will fall to us at #13? Has Anderson been dropping and, if so, what are the reasons? I.E. Did he have a poor workout at his Pro day try out?

    It would appear he does......which may be improbably, but not impossible by any means. As for him falling, the only negative I've heard is his added weight appeared to have slowed him a little. But having said that, IF he fell to #13, the Rams should be sprinting to the podium.

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    Re: Todd McShay's Updated First Round Mock

    Well, I could see them taking a DE if no valuable DT is there at #13, then take a DT in round 2. As long as the address the D line needs.

    Adm. William "Bull" Halsey

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    Re: Todd McShay's Updated First Round Mock

    Quote Originally Posted by RAMMAN68 View Post
    Well, I could see them taking a DE if no valuable DT is there at #13, then take a DT in round 2. As long as they address the D line needs.
    Good, logic reasoning, 68. Provided the collegiate is promising and with true potential, absolutely! DL.

    According to '' [not sure how reliable their comments are], newly developed DE Jamaal Anderson is "very, very, very raw" with sloppy technique. But he obviously possesses great size and strength. Hopefully, he can absorb quickly the trade -- not so much the tricks of the trade but the trade. He was a WR and must now prove his worth as a DL.

    Oh, Okoye, Branch, Carriker ... where art thou brethren?!? Hmm, McShay's update has Carriker going to the Jags at 17. I'd say take him at 13!

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    Re: Todd McShay's Updated First Round Mock

    Oh, Okoye, Branch, Carriker ... where art thou brethren?!? Hmm, McShay's update has Carriker going to the Jags at 17. I'd say take him at 13!
    I think I read some where that Haslett liked the idea of drafting Carriker and moving him inside to DT.

    Adm. William "Bull" Halsey

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