The Trend of the Week -- Justin Blackmon falling out of the Top 10 in mock drafts

[richtree]

Ok...so more.post combine re-evaluation show Rams passing on him at #4 ....show change the title to out of the top 5 ...guess what I wrote in my original post about him never mocked below 4 ..but now often mocked pick 6 to 10 ..some at 12 by guys at cbs and rotoworld are not credible.....only the mocks you pick are credible....

And by the way many of the mocks you guys see will be updated with blackmon at #6 and lower when he was originally a top 4 lock...

That's a trend

[HUbison]

dcprospectreports.com maintains a database of 81 mock drafts across the web. As of March 2nd, the vast majority had Blackmon going either #2 or #4, with a few going #3 to Minnesota or at #6.

I just don't see how these post-combine mocks are any different than the pre-combine mocks which said the same thing.

Rich, with all due respect, there's no new information in the post-combine mocks related to Blackmon. I know you're a Floyd guy. Are you maybe wanting to see a trend with Blackmon sliding?

[Nick]

I think the point that a number of members are making is that any claim of a trend among "many new mocks" that is only supported by two examples is a weak one at best, especially when it's easy to find as many examples that don't support said trend. A trend may very well exist, but you've got to provide the proof if you expect people to believe it.

[JustinHasAnAxe]

dcprospectreports.com maintains a database of 81 mock drafts across the web. As of March 2nd, the vast majority had Blackmon going either #2 or #4, with a few going #3 to Minnesota or at #6.

I just don't see how these post-combine mocks are any different than the pre-combine mocks which said the same thing.

Rich, with all due respect, there's no new information in the post-combine mocks related to Blackmon. I know you're a Floyd guy. Are you maybe wanting to see a trend with Blackmon sliding?

Blackmon going #2 overall is silly.. thats implying that the Rams wont trade out of that spot... who really thinks that will happen?

I have noticed Blackmon slipping in mocks, not necessarily out of the top 10, but that has more to do with Kalil's rise.

[Fargo Ram Fan]

Jerry Rice ran a disappointing 4.7 in the 40 yard dash at the NFL combine.

Thanks for playing!

[DE_Ramfan]

Blackmon going #2 overall is silly.. thats implying that the Rams wont trade out of that spot... who really thinks that will happen?

I have noticed Blackmon slipping in mocks, not necessarily out of the top 10, but that has more to do with Kalil's rise.

I think you'll find those that have Blackmon at #2 are guys who don't like to "mock" draft trades and are just putting the player with the team they think he'll end up with even if they don't think it will be at #2

[HUbison]

Blackmon going #2 overall is silly.. thats implying that the Rams wont trade out of that spot... who really thinks that will happen?

If the Rams can't find a dance partner, that may well happen. If I were a betting man, I'd say the #2 pick is RG3 via trade. Having said that though, if the Rams can't trade it, I'd expect the pick could very well be Blackmon.

And as DE_Ramsfan accurately stated, those mocks with Blackmon at #2 generally don't mock trades.

[richtree]

I think we all agree that Blackmon will not go pick #2 -- simply put Les Snead has spoken to the media about trading the pick and he really doesn't even hint at the idea of staying at #2 as an option.

Any mock that has Blackmon still at #2 is not realistic. All the only mocks that should be looked at are post combine mocks.

I know a lot of people think I am a Floyd guy, but that's not the case. I just want the Rams to have the best team. I personally would like to see the Rams trade down twice.
Once from #2 to #4 and again from #4 to a lower first round spot for more picks....

I really enjoy WRs and last year was a special class with Julio Jones and AJ Green. This year FLoyd and HIll are both just a notch below Blackmon, but there is a reason teams aren't trading up for Blackmon the way the Falcons did for Julio.....

THERE IS ONLY 1 WR I WANT TO AVOID IN THIS DRAFT, AND THAT KENDALL WRIGHT.

He is way overvalued, and I think there are other WRs like, Jones, Givens, Jenkins, and Broyles...

but with all that being said...you can't deny that Blackmon went from the MOST CONSIDERED #2 PICK FOR THE RAMS.......TO BEING PASSED ON AT #4 BY THE RAMS....<<<----SEE THE TREND?

OK...THATS THE POINT

[Nick]

This year FLoyd and HIll are both just a notch below Blackmon

Michael Floyd, yes. Stephen Hill, I have to disagree. I have things growing in my yard that are less raw than Hill; it's unfathomable to me that he went from a second round prospect two weeks ago to being just a notch below the long-standing best receiver in this class.

but there is a reason teams aren't trading up for Blackmon the way the Falcons did for Julio.....

I don't think anyone expected the Falcons to trade what they did for Julio Jones. I'm not sure I'd use that as the benchmark of a talented receiver.

but with all that being said...you can't deny that Blackmon went from the MOST CONSIDERED #2 PICK FOR THE RAMS.......TO BEING PASSED ON AT #4 BY THE RAMS....<<<----SEE THE TREND?

Again, no I don't. Because again, you've not provided adequate supporting evidence to demonstrate the existence of a trend.

The Rotoworld mock you cited actually has Blackmon being taken four spots higher than he was in their previous projection. Rob Rang's mock from CBS has the Rams picking Griffin at #2 under the assumption of a trade, but Rob doesn't project who the Rams would be trading with and where they'd end up.

Both represent pretty flawed examples of a trend, and that's ignoring the bigger issue that two post-Combine mock drafts really aren't enough to establish a trend.

I said in my earlier response that I'm not discounting the possibility of a trend, but I've simply not seen anywhere near the kind of supporting evidence to convince me one exists. Simply saying it does and typing in ALL CAPS isn't a convincing enough case.

[richtree]

Ok..your all right Blackmon is still projected as a top 5 pick....and only the mocks I look at are invalid....

Combine clearly moved RGIII into the #2 pick...but that info is probably wrong too...and Rams will pick #2

Just glad you guys are my stock broker...I would probably be broke...enjoy tube mocks

[DE_Ramfan]

Ok..your all right Blackmon is still projected as a top 5 pick....and only the mocks I look at are invalid....

Combine clearly moved RGIII into the #2 pick...but that info is probably wrong too...and Rams will pick #2

Just glad you guys are my stock broker...I would probably be broke...enjoy tube mocks

No on is claiming the mocks you look at are the only invalid mocks around. But 2 mocks out of 10-15 do not make for a trend. The only reason Blackmon is even talked about as the #2 pick (or top 5 pick at all) is because that's where the Rams are picking. I don't think many people feel he's the 2nd best player in the draft - just happens to fill our biggest need is all.

The reason you see Blackmon in the #4 spot and the #6 spot is because people are acknowledging that there is no way the Rams sit at #2. If that mock drafter predicts a Cleveland trade we take him at 4. If it's a Washington trade then we get him at #6. That's the reason for the variance.

If there's a trend here it isn't that Blackmon is falling it's that our pick is moving.

[md8]

All the mocks will be wrong anyways, like they always are. Most people too scared to predict something against the grain like having Blackmon fall to 9 or 10. Instead they copy other people's mocks with slight changes.

Plus a team or 2 will select someone in the 1st round that most "experts" think will be a 2nd rounder. And another couple of teams will select players at a positions they are already strong at instead of positions of need. Most of these mock drafts will be lucky to hit 50%.

[md8]

Wright does remind me of Gilyard. A short skinny WR that was a deep threat in college but who's game wouldn't translate over to the NFL.

So people that say the combine doesn't matter, it showed that Gilyard probably wouldn't do much in the NFL before he was drafted.

[Nick]

Ok..your all right Blackmon is still projected as a top 5 pick....and only the mocks I look at are invalid....

Combine clearly moved RGIII into the #2 pick...but that info is probably wrong too...and Rams will pick #2

Just glad you guys are my stock broker...I would probably be broke...enjoy tube mocks

Not sure where this response is coming from, since all that was asked of you is to provide enough supporting evidence to establish your claim of a trend. I would have been interested in looking at that information, but apparently it was asking too much...

[richtree]

Not sure where this response is coming from, since all that was asked of you is to provide enough supporting evidence to establish your claim of a trend. I would have been interested in looking at that information, but apparently it was asking too much...

3 major mocks have BLACKMON BETWEEN #6-10

CBS, Rotoworld, and Todd McShay.......

That is a trend for a guy that was never supposed to make it out of the TOP 5 !!!!!!

That shows the Rams passing on him and no one else trying to get him before pick 6


that is hard, concrete evidence....don't spin it...there it is....enough said....