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Thread: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

  1. #46
    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Vaccaro ran 4.63, that is not "wasn't great" 4.5 for a guy his size "isn't great" 4.63 is what 6-3 , 245 pound OLBs run in the NFL.

    You know WHY, so many college stars like Vaccaro don't make impact in the nFL???

    Because in the NFL, all the receivers run under 4.6, even many of the TE
    Because nearly all the O-linemen , and ALL the LT are 300 plus pound behemoths with great feet and long arms, who know how to hold and not get caught.

    Because the defensive ends run like deer, because the DTs are strong as Elephants and fast as Rhinos.

    Because you don't have 220lb MLB

    College production really means NOTHING, if not combined iwth inate physical gifts AND the ability to get even bigger and stronger and better with coaching and lots of hard work.

    No matter how much hard work you put into a LIMITED guy, he is nevr going to be a star, and in round one, you are looking for stars.

    College, production without elite physical giftes, is EXACTLY the same as a physical freak with no production.

    Either way, you PASS on these types in round one, unless there was avalid reason for the lack of production for a physical freak.

    You almost NEVER see a pure production guy at an outside position get drafted in round one.

    It's all about Ceiling, and round one guys, you want a very high ceiling. In round one, the floor is not as much of a concern, because they are all risky. You get your character guys, your "football players" later, but in round one, it's all about TOTAL package. WHoever has the fewest minusses, goes the highest.

    And at a position like Safety, you had better be a physical specimen, and a great player in college to even sniff that first round.

    It's only been that way for, well forever really. You can take a QB that can't run, even with a fair arm, if intangibles are there, maybe a DL with a high motor that fits a scheme or a ferocious run blocking OL, but RB, WR, and DB??

    Not a chance they get taken round one without solid, even spectacular measurables.


    Right or wrong, and I think it's quite right, understanding how pass offenses work, you can't draft guys early whos job is to play in big, open spaces.

    If a safety can't cover the deep middle, against the NFL stud TE, they hve to play five yards deeper to survive, and then you eliminate their run effectiveness, and open up the middle for slot receivers who now only have to beat a MLB on a "Jerk" Route.

    WIth play action, that slow, and 4.63 is SLOW safety is going to really get exposed.

    There are some terrific cover LB who run 4.63, and they get burned by really quick and fast receivers when mismatched in one on one coverage.

    If I want a SS this draft, I'm going with Elam or Thomas or Cyprien, or Reid.

    Vaccaro is rated #1 as much as anything for being profjected at FS, and for his supposed "versatility".

    Rated as a strong safety, where he would have to play in the NFL, he is behind all those others.

    That versatility, to me , means he is good at a lot of things, but GREAT at none.

    He's never gonna be able to play slot corner with that speed deficiency, because they will isolate him deep post, and he'll get beat by 3 yards.

    So that "versatility" is a myth.

    He's too small to be a really great SS either. He'll be OK, even good against the run, but no way he can cover a stud TE at 6 ft 213lb. He is the quintisential "Journeyman of all trades, Master of None"

    I hate hearing about a guy's versatility in college, when it just doesn't project to the pros.

    I heard that about guys like Kim Herring, and other really good college CB, they always say are valuable because they could mov to safety, when everyone knows they will HAVE to make that move, and project as an average safety.

    In fact, one reason safeties don't get pciked high, is because you can find a dozen college CBs and small OLB (like John Lynch, who was taken in round three, ) who will end up better pro strong safeties than the guys who played there in college, who are glorified linebackers in many defenses

    Cornerbacks AND safeties are getting bigger, as the game changes.

    The "small" SS, like Tyvon Branch, ran 4.3 forties and still got drafted in round three or four.

    Kam Chancellor is 6-3, 233, and he laste till round five; Chancellor, Adrian Wilson, Bernard Pollard, are the future of top SS.

    Many teams have smaller SS, but most really ran well, like Polamalu's 4.34. There are sone who arec not as fast that earned starting jobs, but ALL were either undrafted, or went very late.

    >>Or maybe because they know the pick before them has a serious need for Safety and perhaps they're simply covering their asses? >> I don't think anyone thinks the Rams go safety at 16, and a simple trade up, involving, say a 4th rounder, would move them to 15th, IF they really lusted after Vaccaro.

    I really doubt that Dallas would spend all their cap on a top safety, then draft one in round one. That just isn't how NFL teams operate. That would sew up way too much in safeties.

    Oh and Dallas hasn't taken a safety in round one since Roy Williams, in 2002, same for round two and three.

    Seems like they have been needing safety every year in Dallas, since Williams busted out, because he couldn't cover anyone. He was just a glorified LB, who they picked because of all the big college hits.

    Yet they NEVER draft one early at all. You think ol Jerry Jones suddenly loves college safeties?

    >>With that in mind, while I do see some of the things that Barry is concerned about, I think he really exaggerates the negatives as well.
    >>>

    Look, I'm not saying Vaccaro is a sure bust, I'm just saying he has too many questions to be a first round pick. Second round is great for any safety, and that's where he belongs, due to the speed issue.

    Again, not ONE safety drafted high has run over 4.55. Most are around 4.45, the best are 4.35.

    1/10 second difference is a yard at 40 yards for fast players.

    IF Vaccaro runs a 4.4, even 4.45, he's a late first rounder, and if not a second, which means he 's a good player with just one thing keeping him out of round one, in his case two, position and speed/size, as well as how he was used, which doesn't relate to how he will be used as a pro.

    Over the years, my EXPERIENCE with the draft, and the NFL has taught me that combine stars with no production , guys projected at different positions than in college, guys with poor work ethic, dumb guys, and very good college players who lack size and/or speed especially , and one year wonders, are just horrible risks in round one, unless there really is no better option when a team picks.

    If you fall in LOVE with a player, it is the kiss of death for a coach and GM. Mike Martz fell in love with Trung Canidate, , Jimmy Kennedy, Adam Archuleta, who ALL had at least one question mark. Same thing with Linehan with Carriker, Tye Hill, Donnie Avery, who were reaches with big questions.

    It sounds like Vaccaro is getting this kind of love, where HUGE questions are shrugged off because he is such a good "football player" , in college, playing box safety on the line.

    How did those picks work out

    >>Gholston, a so-called workout warrior at the combine in 2008 lifted him to the sixth pick in the draft.

    Some guys maybe shorter and slower but they just play football... London Fletcher >>

    I have to laugh at this. London Fletcher is one of the fastest LB ever to go into a draft. he even ran back kicks at his little college. Charlie Armey found him and practically hid him from other teams, AND he wasn't drafted, not put up for first round consideration.

    Gholston was a one year wonder, who they projected to a different type role than he had in college.

    I don't draft workout wonders in round one, just like I don't draft the Teddy Bruschis, the poster boy for a guy whi is just a "football player", in round one.

    I was howling when fans were talking up Gholston over Chris Long, and I was right.

    I also was howling when they passed on Ray Rice to take Donnie Avery, because they wanted a fast receiver so bad.

    I didn't have Tye Hill on my list of top TEN CB.

    I though the Carriker pick was nuts, unless they switched to a 3-4. I wanted a guy named Revis.
    I laughed out loud when they took Klopfensein over M. Jones-Drew or Greg Jennings.

    On the other hand I loved Chris Long, and Quinn, and Brockers, where they got them.
    I jumped for joy when they took Holt over Champ Bailey,though I loved Champ too.
    I was all over Holt in November as the guy, and Dre Bly as well.
    I predicted Wistrom and Holcombe in 1998
    I loved the move to get SJ 39

    There are some I was off on, like Jason Smith and Alex Barron, who I thought were, like most 1st round OL good, safe bets.

    I also loved the Bradford pick, since he was healthy, the only ? I had. Time will tell how right or wrong I was, but I wouldn't trade Sam for Suh now.
    Last edited by Nick; -03-25-2013 at 02:54 PM. Reason: Merging back to back posts; please use the EDIT feature if you'd like to add additional information before another response has been made.

    Barry Waller

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    Vaccaro ran 4.63, that is not "wasn't great" 4.5 for a guy his size "isn't great" 4.63 is what 6-3 , 245 pound OLBs run in the NFL.
    Unless your name is Jarvis Jones, in which case speed and draft trends of the last decade suddenly no longer matter at all.

    Anyways, we're simply going back and forth at this point with no hope of changing the others' mind, so I don't see much point in continuing this debate.

    Your comments prompted me to go back and rewatch Vaccaro, and I shared my opinion of what I saw. I also shared the opinions of others who are highly thought of when it comes to the draft, in the forms of mock drafts and analysis that supported my position that Vaccaro is worthy of a first round selection. You disagree, and that's fine.

    It will be interesting to see what Vaccaro runs at his pro day and whether or not he's selected in the first round this year.

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    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    Here is what was written about Fletcher just a short time ago.

    "London Fletcher is also the small guy on campus. He's extremely bulky. A true physical monster. He's 240 or so pounds, generously listed at 5'10", and ran a 4.38 40 yard dash back in the day. That's as fast as Clinton Portis or Laron Landry. I bet he's still under 4.5 now.

    "Fletcher ran an astounding 4.38 in the 40-yard dash"

    http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...0/ai_66760542/
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    <<Unless your name is Jarvis Jones, in which case speed and draft trends of the last decade suddenly no longer matter at all. >.

    I wasn't aware that Jones was a SAFETY? Totally different positions
    , but his lack of speed so far has knocked him down about 13 spots.

    If Vaccaro was once projected as around 20, a 13 pick drop puts him in round TWO, so..... same same...

    Also tThere are guys who are star LB who don't have great speed, Elvis Demervil ran 4.75 at a "smallish" 6-1 257, Terrell Suggs a 4.84 at his pro day and combine, but safety...not so much; cornerback, not at ALL (Hence ZERO white CB, and almost no white FS.)
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    Here is what was written about Fletcher just a short time ago.

    "London Fletcher is also the small guy on campus. He's extremely bulky. A true physical monster. He's 240 or so pounds, generously listed at 5'10", and ran a 4.38 40 yard dash back in the day. That's as fast as Clinton Portis or Laron Landry. I bet he's still under 4.5 now.

    "Fletcher ran an astounding 4.38 in the 40-yard dash"

    http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...0/ai_66760542/
    It was so astounding yet, NOT one team drafted him in any round.

    Fletcher signed with the St. Louis Rams as an undrafted free agent as I recall. (to bad they weren't smart enough to pay him and keep him).

    My point is sometimes measurable such as a forty times are not the end all be all. I think you would agree with that, Fletcher was passed over not because he could not run, it was he's to short.

    Here is what Mike Mayock had to say about Vaccaro

    On the safety class:
    “It‟s a great safety class–best safety class I‟d seen in years. Maybe not with a bunch of first-round guys that you‟re going to run around and say, „That‟s my guy,‟ but depth of the class.
    Again, offensive line, defensive line, inside linebacker, safety

    all of the non-sexy positions are pretty deep this year. [Kenny] Vaccaro to me is a really good football player on tape. I‟ll be surprised if he gets past the top 15 or so, which is pretty high for a safety. Matt Elam from Florida, another really good football player; I have him in the second round. And then after that, I have at least 10 or 12 safeties jumbled together; some are only strong [safeties], some are free[safeties] but some could play both that you can get in the second and third rounds. But they‟re all kind of jumbled together right now. I‟m looking forward to watching them run.”

    On Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro:

    My only issue with Vaccaro is the way they played him this year,
    close to the line of scrimmage.

    I can see his quickness, his change of direction and his tackling ability, all of which I love. The hard part is to find him covering a deep half or a third because he didn‟t do much of that this year. I‟ve had a couple of teams tell me I need to go back and watch some of the tape from last
    year when he played further away from the line of scrimmage to see that, but from what I‟ve heard that checks out as well. I anticipate it will all check out and if he‟s as smart as I‟ve heard he is, then yes he‟s a top 15 pick.
    Barry in the end you may be right and he does not go in the first round but clearly there are some who have him going in the first round.
    Nick likes this.

  6. #51
    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    Funny... before this thread, I really didn't care about Vaccaro (who I have ranked behind Elam and Reid).

    Now, I suddenly find myself hoping he becomes a perennial Pro Bowl player.
    DE_Ramfan likes this.

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    It was so astounding yet, NOT one team drafted him in any round.

    <<<Fletcher signed with the St. Louis Rams as an undrafted free agent as I recall. (to bad they weren't smart enough to pay him and keep him).

    My point is sometimes measurable such as a forty times are not the end all be all. I think you would agree with that, Fletcher was passed over not because he could not run, it was he's to short. >>>


    Actually you are wrong there, and i was present when all this went down with Fletcher. He was a complete unknow from John Carroll, and only played a year there. Charlie Armey , a guy who was known for digging up talent when no one else saw a guy, had some connection with some one at John Carroll.

    They told him about Fletcher and sent a tape, one of hundreds and hundreds Armey would look at every year. He left no stone unturned, and loved what he saw of Fletcher. He told us that he was so worried that someone else would sign London, he wanted to hide him out somewhere.

    He knew a guy not invited to the combine owuld have little shot at getting drafted, and from a place like John Carroll, not even seen on TV or in film. All there was was coaches game films, and no one was asking for them on a guy like Fletcher.

    Armey was not at all surprised with his find being so good.

    This is totally off my whole point though. YES there are guys like Teddy Bruschi that star, at some positions, without elite measurables.

    BUT THEY DON'T GET PICKED IN ROUND ONE. Those "football player" types have maybe a one in ten chance of making it, which is why they go round two and three and later.

    TOP picks have to have a far better success ration, like one in two, and that's what draft history shows happens.

    In round one, you have to throw out need, at least top need, when it means a reach for a guy with poor measurables.

    In round one, you must minimize risk, while maximizing top potential, meaning guys WITH elite measurables.

    Get it? Vaccaro has a shot, but he's not a round one type risk, not as a safty, not running 4.63, a spped that has seen NO ONE drafted at his position in round one, maybe in 30 years, 10 for sure.

    We'll see if he runs better this week, but if he does not break 4.5, you'll see EVERYONE dropping him on the boards. They all think he might run better and don't want to move him till that pro day.

    If he runs 4.6 again, it's round two for him. maybe he shows everyone they were wrong, but it's not about THAT. It's about that he will never get bigger, taller, or faster, so he'll never be a superstar.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    I think it was Brian Polian, a teammate of Fletchers, and son of Bill Polian, who might have turned Aremy on to Fletcher, or it might have been Bill, a good friend of Armey's, who taught him everything he knew back when he worked under Polian at Buffalo.

    Josh McDaniels was the other find out of that John Carroll class.

    Many times finding talent is all about who you are pals with or related to. That's part of why Trumaine Johnson is a Ram.

    Fihers other son goes to Auburn, so see if any Tigers go to the Rams in the late rounds.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    Here is what a previous article said about Fletcher/Armey, from Armey's mouth
    Rams personal director Charley Armey had seen a tape of Fletcher, however, and he thought Fletcher would be a good special-teams player. So he gave him a free-agent tryout. To hear Armey tell it, it was further from somewhere than even quarterback Kurt Warner.

    "I had an indication Kurt had a chance to be a quarterback," Armey said. "But Fletcher was coming out of nowhere. Nobody had given him the time of day. I don't think anyone scouted him but me. He's our little stick of dynamite."
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    One other thing about little John Carroll
    It's also where Don Shula went, and Tim Russert and Niner OC Greg Roman.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    >>Funny... before this thread, I really didn't care about Vaccaro (who I have ranked behind Elam and Reid).

    Now, I suddenly find myself hoping he becomes a perennial Pro Bowl player. >.

    Easy Avenger, I might convince Obama to change the Constitution and run again..

    It's all about getting to the truth, and that's what I am offering
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    Did Mayock say this BEFORE or AFTER that 4.63 forty in Indy??


    <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<On the safety class:
    “It‟s a great safety class–best safety class I‟d seen in years. Maybe not with a bunch of first-round guys that you‟re going to run around and say, „That‟s my guy,‟ but depth of the class.
    Again, offensive line, defensive line, inside linebacker, safety

    all of the non-sexy positions are pretty deep this year. [Kenny] Vaccaro to me is a really good football player on tape. I‟ll be surprised if he gets past the top 15 or so, which is pretty high for a safety. Matt Elam from Florida, another really good football player; I have him in the second round. And then after that, I have at least 10 or 12 safeties jumbled together; some are only strong [safeties], some are free[safeties] but some could play both that you can get in the second and third rounds. But they‟re all kind of jumbled together right now. I‟m looking forward to watching them run.”

    On Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro:

    My only issue with Vaccaro is the way they played him this year,
    close to the line of scrimmage.
    I can see his quickness, his change of direction and his tackling ability, all of which I love. The hard part is to find him covering a deep half or a third because he didn‟t do much of that this year. I‟ve had a couple of teams tell me I need to go back and watch some of the tape from last
    year when he played further away from the line of scrimmage to see that, but from what I‟ve heard that checks out as well. I anticipate it will all check out and if he‟s as smart as I‟ve heard he is, then yes he‟s a top 15 pick.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    Just one caveat about Vaccaro. If he goes to a cover two team, he could do very well. That defense either has one safty playing like a LB on running downs, or has them covering half the field deep, and keeping everything in front of them. Then they tackle well and jar balls loose by wearing down receivers over a game.

    You won't see cover two safeties isolated in one on one coverage much at all. Those teams have taller, faster MLB that can run and cover, which takes the middle away.

    Those teams usually get their starting safeties late in drafts, however, like the Bears with Mike Green and Mike Brown in 2005. Both Lynch and Damien Johnson were slower safeties for the Bucs great teams.

    HOWEVER, there is one problem: Only TWO teams, Minny and the Bears, RUN the cover two, and now the Bears may not either, with Lovie gone. Urlacher being let go is an indication the cover two is dead there too. The Rams, even with a cover MLB, do NOT run the cover two.

    They run an aggressive pass rush and stuff the run defense started by Buddy Ryan, which sometimes leaves everyone in coverage, and requires both safeties to be pass rushers.

    This article gives some insight as to why the safty position has changed, with speed and length the focus.

    Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears one of only two NFL teams still relying heavily on Cover-2 defense and thriving - Chicago Tribune
    Barry Waller

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    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller

    Easy Avenger, I might convince Obama to change the Constitution and run again..

    It's all about getting to the truth, and that's what I am offering
    Oh, I get it... because I'm a Republican. Only one problem... I'm not. You see, despite having met me at the Bash, and stalking me on Facebook, you know nothing about me.

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    Re: Vaccaro ? No Freaking Way in Round One!!

    i thought there were only rams fans here not political parties :I

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