Who will be there at #13? A max analysis

[max]

With less than 4 days left until the start of the draft, I think we have the major risers and fallers culled out.

Revis has moved up and Branch has moved down and Levi Brown looks like a fairly certain top 10 pick.

On top of that there is the looming Jenkins trade (or maybe some other vet DT)

Looks like we got these guys going almost certainly before us:
CJohnson
Russell
Quinn
Peterson
Thomas
Landry
Adams
Brown

That means only 4 more will go before we pick. The Rams pool looks like:
Revis
Hall
Willis
Carriker
Branch
Okoye
Anderson
Ginn

I would say it's highly probable that one of the corners go off before us. My guess is Revis at this point. Also one the DT's will be gone in all likelihood, I'm not sure but Okoye is probably gonna go first.

That would leave the remaining pool with 2 more pick to go:
Hall
Willis
Carriker
Branch
Anderson
Ginn

This is the worst case scenario, IMHO. I mean, take any two players off that list and the remaining 4 player pool still looks very nice. There are actually 15 possible combinations of these 4 player pool lists, but if we assume Branch and Ginn will be on them it reduces to 6:

#1
Branch
Ginn
Hall
Willis

#2
Branch
Ginn
Hall
Anderson

#3
Branch
Ginn
Willis
Anderson

#4
Branch
Ginn
Hall
Carriker

#5
Branch
Ginn
Willis
Carriker

#6
Branch
Ginn
Carriker
Anderson


If we get Jenkins I think the pick will be Ginn if Anderson and Carriker are off the board. But that only happens in one of the six cases.

This means that I think there is over an 80% chance that Anderson or Carriker is the pick.

Nick can pick either one and I'll agree.

[Rambos]

Branch, Anderson and Carriker are the three I would consider to draft, of the ones you project to be there at 13.

Willis is gone IMO.

[max]

Branch, Anderson and Carriker are the three I would consider to draft, of the ones you project to be there at 13.

Willis is gone IMO.

Willis certainly may be gone, I believe either SF or Buffalo will take him, but Gosselin had him sliding to us in his last mock so who knows?

If Willis is gone, then Carriker or Anderson will be there, IMO.

One possible scenario for this:
Oak-Russell
Det-Quinn
Cleve-Peterson
TB-CJohnson
AZ-Thomas
Wash-Adams
Minn-Landry
Atl-Brown
Miami-Okoye
Houston-Revis
SF-Carriker
Buff-Willis

What's interesting here is that if Atl takes Anderson instead of Brown, Miami will likely jump on Brown and Okoye could very well slide to us. But I just don't see both DT's being on the board at #13. And I also don't see both CB's being on the board at #13 either. So somethings gotta give. Most likely its that Atlanta won't take Anderson.