Would Rams be reaching for Blackmon?

[Rambos]

By Mike Sando
Jerry from Sacramento reached out this week to take issue with Justin Blackmon as a projected first-round draft choice for his favorite team, the St. Louis Rams.

"He's a good player, not a great player," Jerry wrote. "At No. 6, the Rams need a great player."

Justin Blackmon on 20+ Yard Passes
Stat 2010 2011
Targets 33 24
Receptions 20 8
TD 10 1
Drops 1 4


Jerry makes a worthwhile point in relation to the sixth overall choice. The word "good" resonated with me because one of the draft analysts I've followed over the years, Nolan Nawrocki, recently used the same term to describe Blackmon in his 2012 Pro Football Weekly Draft Preview.

"A good, accomplished football player," Nawrocki wrote, nonetheless projecting Blackmon as a top-10 talent.

Jerry thinks the Rams would come out ahead targeting Stanford guard David DeCastro, who scouts have compared to seven-time Pro Bowler Steve Hutchinson. He thinks Blackmon would then fall far enough in the first round for the Rams to consider trading up from the second round into range to select him in the 20s.

"I see a lot of people saying the Rams will take Blackmon but that is purely filling a need and not marrying need and value," Jerry wrote. "With the new CBA in place, drafting a guard high is now reasonable. Besides, I don’t even think Blackmon is the best WR in the draft. It is Michael Floyd. Just give him a free chauffeur and he’ll stay out of trouble."

In a best-case scenario, the Rams' first-round pick would start right away and score touchdowns. Blackmon would presumably fit that profile, but what if DeCastro or someone else were an appreciably better player? That is the question Jerry is raising.

The Rams' obvious need for playmaking help could tempt them to reach in this draft. As the Rams build up their roster, they should enjoy greater flexibility in the draft. They recently signed former Philadelphia Eagles receiver Steve Smith. They have a visit scheduled with Jerome Simpson, free-agent receiver from the Cincinnati Bengals, Jim Thomas reports.

As for Blackmon, the chart from ESPN Stats & Information shows his production falling from 2010 to 2011 on passes traveling at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage.

However, Blackmon caught 30 of 36 red zone passes thrown to him in 2011, scoring 12 touchdowns on those plays. His 20 touchdown receptions on red zone throws are the most among college players since 2010.

[HUbison]

If the Rams pass on him at #6, he will be a Jaguar at #7.

[tomahawk247]

When reading up on prospects before the draft, I always make sure to check out the scouting reports from top, well known draftniks such as Gil Brandt, Mike Mayock, Todd McShay, and, of course, Jerry from Sacramento

[AvengerRam]

Wait a second... Jerry from Sacramento thinks he's overvalued? Well, that changes everything. I'm going to have to re-do my entire draft board now.

That is, unless Eugene from Idaho Falls chimes in.

[berg8309]

This guy clearly knows his draft. Blackmon will easily fall far enough for the Rams to trade up and grab him, it's a no brainer! He probably read that article by some ESPN writer who, using very sophisticated stats, ranked Blackmon as the 6th best receiver and Floyd as the 7th. Every year around this time is when the "dissenters" enter the fray to claim that every top prospect is actually the 4th or 5th best prospect at their position in order to get readers.

I believe I've seen some suggestions that Tannehill may actually be the best QB in the draft, which is clearly erroneous at this point, as the only reason he was talked about as a top 10 pick is the lack of any other QB in the draft outside the top 2, not because he may actually be the best. Nothing about his game suggests he is better than Luck/RG3, it's just junk they make up with no real basis in order to draw readers.

Apparently Jerry from Sacramento was drawn in by some of these false prophets and led to believe that somehow Blackmon would fall into the mid 20's in the draft.

P.S. If Blackmon DOES fall into the mid 20's, I will eat my shoe. There is no way it happens.

[r8rh8rmike]

"A good, accomplished football player," Nawrocki wrote, nonetheless projecting Blackmon as a top-10 talent.

I always get a kick out of statements like this. He's okay, he's good, but he IS a top-10 talent. Not just a top-10 pick, but a top-10 TALENT. Go figure.

[AvengerRam]

I always get a kick out of statements like this. He's okay, he's good, but he IS a top-10 talent. Not just a top-10 pick, but a top-10 TALENT. Go figure.

In other words:

Blackmon a Pro Bowler: "Well, I said he was a top 10 talent..."
Blackmon a bust: "Well, I warned you he wasn't worth a top 10 pick..."

[BarronWade]

So Jerry From Sacromento how do you address Malcolm Floyd's charter problem with his DUI arrest

By Mike Sando

"I see a lot of people saying the Rams will take Blackmon but that is purely filling a need and not marrying need and value," Jerry wrote. "With the new CBA in place, drafting a guard high is now reasonable. Besides, I don’t even think Blackmon is the best WR in the draft. It is Michael Floyd. Just give him a free chauffeur and he’ll stay out of trouble."

He sure wont get a dui with a chauffeur...However this just influences him to drink and go wild more...they should have tried your chauffeur thing with pacman jones

[richtree]

The league has changed to a WR and QB league.....WR's and QB's will go higher than their normal draft value because of the rule changes as well as the rookie pay scale structure.

Blackmon and Floyd will both go in top 12....Neither is a tradional top 12 talent at the WR postion but both are top 12 impact players of talent for a team's success in upcoming NFL seasons...

After QB and LT what position carries the highest value in annual draft value ??? this mood is swing with WRs becoming way more important -- and CBs aren't far behind....


its a league of change....reach is just a word....and reaching for a player is something winners do...the Patriots reached for Gronk, A.Herdanez, and Mallet --- and thats how you win...

I hope the Rams reach to get every good player out there...

[berg8309]

I think that expectation for 10 ten picks may be high as well. That the guy has to be guaranteed mutliple pro-bowler or it's a reach, and if he doesn't do that he is a bust. After work I might comb through the last 20 drafts to see how many pro bowlers were selected in the top 10. I may be in the minority, but I think getting a starting quality player qualifies as a win in the draft, regardless of where you drafted them, even if they don't reach the pro bowl.

[HUbison]

I think that expectation for 10 ten picks may be high as well. That the guy has to be guaranteed mutliple pro-bowler or it's a reach, and if he doesn't do that he is a bust. After work I might comb through the last 20 drafts to see how many pro bowlers were selected in the top 10. I may be in the minority, but I think getting a starting quality player qualifies as a win in the draft, regardless of where you drafted them, even if they don't reach the pro bowl.

I'll help you out, berg.

In the past decade, 37% of top 10 picks have been to a Pro Bowl, and 13% have been All-Pro.

So then, for the "Pro Bowl or bust" crowd......63% of all top 10 picks are busts.
For the "All Pro or bust" crowd.....87% of all top 10 picks are busts.

[general counsel]

Everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion. Of course, if Jerry from Sacramento can get this type of national exposure, then i think that Nick and Av should be on NFL network and ESPN respectively on draft day, since both of our in house experts are about 100x more informed and logical (even when you disagree with them) then this guy.

By the way, i could just picture AV on NFL network sitting next to neon deon dressed in a comparable outfit!

ramming speed to all

general counsel

[mde8352gorams]

As Bill Walsh once said, "it's not where you select them, it's how they play" and if Justin Blackmon delivers the playmaking ability he's shown in college, then by all means I hope the Rams select him. Beyond his on-field skills he seems to be a genuinely solid person and I know we're not talking "4-Pillars" any longer, there is merit to having a solid citizen in the locker room. Look at the nonsense Detroit has to face with LeShoure and Fairly being arrested for weed. How dumb is that, and wait until the league has their say in the matter.

Charles Davis had a great comment on Blackmon by saying, "when he's told to be on the field at whatever time for practice, he's not just there, he's READY TO GO at that time". NOT A REACH AT 6!

Go Rams!

[Fortuninerhater]

If the Rams pass on him at #6, he will be a Jaguar at #7.

Wow.....that's not that far a drop, is it? I guess that puts to rest Jerry's theory.

[berg8309]

Let me take a stab at this:

Are the Colts reaching to take Luck?

Because like, Luck didn't go 500/500 for 50,000 yards with 500 TD and 200 rushes for 20,000 yards and 200 TDs, while also playing defense and recording a sack with a fumble returned (By Luck) for a TD on every play last year. Since he isn't the epitome of perfection, he might not be worth the #1 overall!

Oh and btw, Jerry from Sacramento, given our lack of even good players, I'd take a "good not great" player and be happy that it's still a huge upgrade.