Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 26
  1. #1
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Longwood, Florida, United States
    Age
    46
    Posts
    18,548
    Rep Power
    167

    WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    The top two players on my Rams' draft board are Julio Jones and A.J. Green. I doubt I'll change my mind about that, given that (1) I think both are elite prospects, and (2) the Rams REALLY need to improve their WR corps.

    That said, when I look at the issue of selecting a WR in the top 15 from a historical perspective, a pretty bleak picture emerges.

    Here is a list of all the WRs taken in the first 15 picks of the draft in the last 10 years:

    2010 Draft: 0 WRs taken in top 15
    2009 Draft: D.Heyward-Bey (7); M.Crabtree (6)
    2008 Draft: 0 WRs taken in top 15
    2007 Draft: C.Johnson (2); T.Ginn, Jr. (9)
    2006 Draft: 0 WRs taken in top 15
    2005 Draft: B.Edwards (3); T.Williamson (7); M.Williams (10)
    2004 Draft: L.Fitzgerald (3); Roy Williams (7); Reggie Williams (9); L.Evans (13); M.Clayton (15)
    2003 Draft: C.Rogers (2); A.Johnson (3)
    2002 Draft: D.Stallworth (13)
    2001 Draft: D.Terrell (8); K.Robinson (9); R.Gardner (15)

    Not a great list overall, is it?

    By my count, of the 18 WRS, you have:

    3 star players: A.Johnson, L.Fitzgerald, C.Johnson
    1 non-star player who nonetheless justified his draft position: L.Evans
    5 moderately productive, but underperforming players: M.Crabtree, B.Edwards, Roy Williams, D.Stallworth, R.Gardner; and
    9 busts: D.Heyward-Bey, T.Ginn, Jr., T.Williamson, M.Williams, Reggie Williams, M.Clayton, C.Rogers, D.Terrell, K.Robinson

    So, that's 4/18 (22.2%) who jusfied their high draft position.

    While ANY player taken in the top 15 comes with a risk of being a "miss," I'd submit that this track record for WRs is worse than that of most positions (with the possible exception of QBs).

    So... if Jones or Green is there at number 15, I guess there's only one question that the Rams' Front Office needs to ask themselves...

    Do you feel lucky?
    Last edited by AvengerRam; -03-23-2011 at 05:51 PM.


  2. #2
    GROUND DOG 39's Avatar
    GROUND DOG 39 is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    MANCHESTER, U.K.
    Posts
    1,483
    Rep Power
    18

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Thanks for this thread, it certainly brings things into perspective. The 2001 draft of wideouts was horrible, at picks 8, 9, and 15 you would expect better results. This is why we must I hope take the BPA according to our board. Roll on draft day.

  3. #3
    RAMarkable is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Arkansas
    Age
    59
    Posts
    2,089
    Rep Power
    41

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    The top two players on my Rams' draft board are Julio Jones and A.J. Green. I doubt I'll change my mind about that, given that (1) I think both are elite prospects, and (2) the Rams REALLY need to improve their WR corps.

    That said, when I look at the issue of selecting a WR in the top 15 from a historical perspective, a pretty bleak picture emerges.

    Here is a list of all the WRs taken in the first 15 picks of the draft in the last 10 years:

    2010 Draft: 0 WRs taken in top 15
    2009 Draft: D.Heyward-Bey (7); M.Crabtree (6)
    2008 Draft: 0 WRs taken in top 15
    2007 Draft: C.Johnson (2); T.Ginn, Jr. (9)
    2006 Draft: 0 WRs taken in top 15
    2005 Draft: B.Edwards (3); T.Williamson (7); M.Williams (10)
    2004 Draft: L.Fitzgerald (3); Roy Williams (7); Reggie Williams (9); L.Evans (13); M.Clayton (15)
    2003 Draft: C.Rogers (2); A.Johnson (3)
    2002 Draft: D.Stallworth (13)
    2001 Draft: D.Terrell (8); K.Robinson (9); R.Gardner (15)

    Not a great list overall, is it?

    By my count, of the 18 WRS, you have:

    3 star players: A.Johnson, L.Fitzgerald, C.Johnson
    1 non-star player who nonetheless justified his draft position: L.Evans
    5 moderately productive, but underperforming players: M.Crabtree, B.Edwards, Roy Williams, D.Stallworth, R.Gardner; and
    9 busts: D.Heyward-Bey, T.Ginn, Jr., T.Williamson, M.Williams, Reggie Williams, M.Clayton, C.Rogers, D.Terrell, K.Robinson

    So, that's 4/18 (22.2%) who jusfied their high draft position.

    While ANY player taken in the top 15 comes with a risk of being a "miss," I'd submit that this track record for WRs is worse than that of most positions (with the possible exception of QBs).

    So... if Jones or Green is there at number 15, I guess there's only one question that the Rams' Front Office needs to ask themselves...

    Do you feel lucky?
    well, do ya punk?...Heh...Sorry couldn't resist!!

    At any rate, thanks Avenger for all of your work in researching this issue. The evidence you have presented certainly seems compelling to say the least.

    My question is: do you have any reasons or theories as to why the bust rate for WRs taken at this point in the draft is so high?

    Certainly all of these players were athletic enough and it appears that the majority that busted did not have any major red flags that should have precluded their selection.

    Also, one would think with the colleges throwing the ball as much as they do the quality at the wide receiver position should be more easliy evaluated. But, alas, maybe not.

    WHAT SAY YE?
    Last edited by AvengerRam; -03-23-2011 at 10:15 PM.

  4. #4
    Goldenfleece's Avatar
    Goldenfleece is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Age
    32
    Posts
    3,586
    Rep Power
    60

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    I'd classify Koren Robinson as at least moderately productive, and Roy Williams earned his draft value with the Lions--they got great production from him and a king's ransom from the Cowboys in trade value, but the point basically stands. At least anecdotally, it seems like there are more first round receiver busts than at other positions.

    Some of these aren't too surprising. Heyward-Bey and Ginn, Jr. were probably taken too early because people got caught up with their speed. With Mike Williams, it was work ethic, and sure enough when he came back and put in the work for his comeback, he was pretty good for the Seahawks. For some of the others, it wasn't so clear.

  5. #5
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Longwood, Florida, United States
    Age
    46
    Posts
    18,548
    Rep Power
    167

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Quote Originally Posted by RAMarkable View Post
    well, do ya punk?...Heh...Sorry couldn't resist!!

    At any rate, thanks Avenger for all of your work in researching this issue. The evidence you have presented certainly seems compelling to say the least.

    My question is: do you have any reasons or theories as to why the bust rate for WRs taken at this point in the draft is so high?

    Certainly all of these players were athletic enough and it appears that the majority that busted did not have any major red flags that should have precluded their selection.

    Also, one would think with the colleges throwing the ball as much as they do the quality at the wide receiver position should be more easliy evaluated. But, alas, maybe not.

    WHAT SAY YE?
    In some cases, it was hyper-focus on size/speed #s without consideration of basic WR skills (running routes, catching the ball). In other cases, one could argue that bad QBs contributed to the problem.

    On the flip side, it is clear that if you want a truly elite WR, you probably need to roll the dice. After all, how many Larry Fitzgeralds, Andre Johnsons and Calvin Johnsons last until the second round?

  6. #6
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Longwood, Florida, United States
    Age
    46
    Posts
    18,548
    Rep Power
    167

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenfleece View Post
    I'd classify Koren Robinson as at least moderately productive, and Roy Williams earned his draft value with the Lions--they got great production from him and a king's ransom from the Cowboys in trade value.
    Fair enough, though if the Rams take Green or Jones, it certainly would be with the hope/expectation that they have a better career than either of those guys.

    In the end, though, it would be worse to pass on one of them, only to see him become the next Andre Johnson.

  7. #7
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Longwood, Florida, United States
    Age
    46
    Posts
    18,548
    Rep Power
    167

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    By way of comparison, during the same 10 years, I count 14 defensive linemen who were selected in the top 15 and at least justified their draft position: N.Suh (2010); C.Long (2008); S.Ellis (2008); M.Williams (2006); H.Ngata (2006); T.Harris (2004); K.Williams (2003); T.Warren (2003); J.Peppers (2002); J.Henderson (2002); D.Freeney (2002); A.Haynesworth (2002); R.Seymour (2001); M.Stroud (2001).

    While there were plenty of misses as well, I think another distinction is that most of the misses were in the productive/underperformer category, rather than the bust category (with the exception of guys like Vernon Gholston).

    Food for thought.

  8. #8
    Ramendola16's Avatar
    Ramendola16 is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    St. Louis, Missouri
    Age
    20
    Posts
    364
    Rep Power
    14

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Perhaps it is because of all the variables that go into being a good NFL WR. To be at least moderately good, you have to have a well-balanced combination of speed, hands, route running, jumping ability, and a solid rapport with your QB. Add all the routes they have to know, as well as a necessary work ethic, and its easy to see why some really talented players can't quite cut it. I'd make the case that WR is one of the 3 most difficult positions to play in the NFL (The other two being QB and MLB).

  9. #9
    ZiaRam is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Las Cruces, New Mexico, United States
    Age
    34
    Posts
    1,530
    Rep Power
    20

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Recent reports suggest today, that Jerry jones stated two teams have discussed with him to trade up to the Cowboys #9 spot... wonder if we can be one of them?

  10. #10
    Nick's Avatar
    Nick is offline Superbowl MVP
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Morgantown, WV
    Age
    31
    Posts
    19,365
    Rep Power
    153

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    Here is a list of all the WRs taken in the first 15 picks of the draft in the last 10 years:

    2010 Draft: 0 WRs taken in top 15
    2009 Draft: D.Heyward-Bey (7); M.Crabtree (6)
    2008 Draft: 0 WRs taken in top 15
    2007 Draft: C.Johnson (2); T.Ginn, Jr. (9)
    2006 Draft: 0 WRs taken in top 15
    2005 Draft: B.Edwards (3); T.Williamson (7); M.Williams (10)
    Interestingly enough, of the seven WRs chosen in the first 15 picks since 2005, you could make a case that at least three of them (Williamson, Ginn, and DHB) were reaches where they were selected, primarily due to their physical workouts/forty times. Moral of the story perhaps being not to fall in love with a guy's ability in shorts and shoot him to the top of your board. Green and Jones don't really fall into that category, since both have been considered Top 10-12 talents in this class even before workouts. They're legitimate talents who belong up there, not guys who weren't even a consideration until the stopwatches had clicked.

  11. #11
    shower beers's Avatar
    shower beers is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Ohio
    Posts
    3,043
    Rep Power
    59

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Interestingly enough, of the seven WRs chosen in the first 15 picks since 2005, you could make a case that at least three of them (Williamson, Ginn, and DHB) were reaches where they were selected, primarily due to their physical workouts/forty times. Moral of the story perhaps being not to fall in love with a guy's ability in shorts and shoot him to the top of your board. Green and Jones don't really fall into that category, since both have been considered Top 10-12 talents in this class even before workouts. They're legitimate talents who belong up there, not guys who weren't even a consideration until the stopwatches had clicked.
    Great point. While Jones certainly improved his status with his combine workout, it was a sure bet he was to go in the first round before that. These guys leave little question marks around them, other than the obvious ones that are asked about any receiver.

    The important things that need to be asked though, are what separates these players from a Mike Williams, a Ted Ginn, etc. If our FO can answer those, I'm sure we'll make the right call on draft day.

  12. #12
    Nick's Avatar
    Nick is offline Superbowl MVP
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Morgantown, WV
    Age
    31
    Posts
    19,365
    Rep Power
    153

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Quote Originally Posted by shower beers View Post
    Great point. While Jones certainly improved his status with his combine workout, it was a sure bet he was to go in the first round before that. These guys leave little question marks around them, other than the obvious ones that are asked about any receiver.
    Precisely. It's not as if Jones' workout propelled him into the first round from Day Two, which is when you'd probably want to be concerned.

  13. #13
    sjacksonrules's Avatar
    sjacksonrules is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    southern il
    Posts
    1,450
    Rep Power
    29

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    In despags we must trust. Its not like past drafts where we didn't know what we were doing. We have had productive players from at least the first two rounds since they started drafting. So I am gonna put all faith in them if jones or green are there and we don't choose them then ill have faith they will pick someone in later rounds that will work out just fine.

  14. #14
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Longwood, Florida, United States
    Age
    46
    Posts
    18,548
    Rep Power
    167

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Interestingly enough, of the seven WRs chosen in the first 15 picks since 2005, you could make a case that at least three of them (Williamson, Ginn, and DHB) were reaches where they were selected, primarily due to their physical workouts/forty times. Moral of the story perhaps being not to fall in love with a guy's ability in shorts and shoot him to the top of your board. Green and Jones don't really fall into that category, since both have been considered Top 10-12 talents in this class even before workouts. They're legitimate talents who belong up there, not guys who weren't even a consideration until the stopwatches had clicked.
    I think that's a good way to look at this. Applying this to the current group of prospects, one might question if guys like Torrey Smith and Leonard Hankerson, who have improved their stock since the college season ended, are potential late-first round reaches.

    I would also note that almost all of the WRs taken early were "big" WRs. Perhaps there is too much of a premium placed upon size, as there have been a number of great "small" WRs (Steve Smith, Santonio Holmes, DeSean Jackson) who were late-first or second round picks.

  15. #15
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Longwood, Florida, United States
    Age
    46
    Posts
    18,548
    Rep Power
    167

    Re: WRs in the Top 15: A Sucker's Bet?

    Quote Originally Posted by sjacksonrules View Post
    In despags we must trust. Its not like past drafts where we didn't know what we were doing. We have had productive players from at least the first two rounds since they started drafting. So I am gonna put all faith in them if jones or green are there and we don't choose them then ill have faith they will pick someone in later rounds that will work out just fine.
    I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that.

    However, given the inherent risk of taking WRs early, the Rams probably should not trade up to grab one, and definitely should not reach (i.e. taking a guy like Baldwin at pick #14).

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •