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  • College QBs... what matters

    Roethelesberger, Manning, Ryan, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Schaub, Cutler, Ryan, Rodgers all over 59% completion percentage in college their final year and have done the same in the pros. Current completion percentage leader Ben Roethlesberger completed 69.8% of his final year and is now at 70.8%.

    This by far isn't a guarantee for everyone with 60% plus when it comes to completion percentage. Jamarcus Russell completed 67.8% of his passes in college with 2 first round picks at WR Davis and Bowe. Now it is completing an abysmal 48%. Alex Smith completed 65% in the spread, and has career 55% completion percentage. but few QBs with under 60% completion percentage in college have improved to over 60% in the pros.

    I'm talking to you Mr. Locker. Locker has only had 1 career game over 70% of his passes completed and that was his first game ever. This year only 2 games over 60% completion percentage barely got it at USC with exactly 60% and then at idaho with 68%. His completion percentage this year is 56% the same as another former pac 10 QB Ryan Leaf (dont over exaggerate this).I don't care what talent he has around him, those percentages are just bad. Lets look at guy who had even less talent, but was also a top 5 pick. Matt Ryan his senior year barely under after going over 60% in his 2 previous seasons he went 59.3 his senior year, but 9 out his 13 games he went over 60%. He also passed the ball way more recording under 40 attempts only twice.

    1st round Bust since 1999 Leaf, Boller, McNown, Harrington, Lossman, and Akili Smith. All under 60% the highest at 58% Akili Smith. Only McNown had over 30 career starts.

    Success stories 1st rounders Mcnabb, Roethlesberger, Palmer, Cutler, Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, both Mannings, Rivers and maybe Vince Young. The lowest college completion percentage Cutler, Palmer, and McNabb all at 59%. All also have over 32 starts.

    there is a smaller list of guys over 60% who haven't been able to do it in the Pros. Leftwitch, Couch, Smith, Carr, Russell, and Grossman. Smith, Russell and Grossman are spread guys, but what really hurts this group all but Leftwhich and Couch had less than 32 college career stats.

    59% completion percentage along with at least 32 starts has been the winning formula first round QBs. Leftwhich, and Couch are the 2 problems with the system and who knows if the golden boys Leinart and Quinn will join that group.

    With all that said where do they stack up this year. Jake Locker 56.6% and could have 28 starts. Sam Bradford 67.9% and exactly 31 starts. Jimmy Clausen 67.8% and if he stays healthy will have 35 starts at the end of the year.

    My take Locker should go back to school and work on reading defenses, making good decisions, and his accuracy and come back completing over 60% of his passes and having 40 or more starts like Peyton Manning, Phillip River, and McNabb. Bradford's completion percentage is high enough for him not to go back for just 1 start to fulfill the formula. Claussen is good to go

  • #2
    Re: College QBs... what matters

    I think cutting it off at 59% is a bit arbitrary. While completion % is certainly an important factor, you have to look at the whole picture. Most of the QBs you listed who have been a success in the NFL also played for winning teams in college. Locker is playing on a bad team, which means he has less talent around him, and is often passing in situations in which the opposition knows that he is going to pass the ball.

    While I understand why you think Locker would benefit from another year in school, I think its a safe bet that he's coming out as he is currently viewed as a sure first round pick.

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    • #3
      Re: College QBs... what matters

      Originally posted by AvengerRam View Post
      I think cutting it off at 59% is a bit arbitrary. While completion % is certainly an important factor, you have to look at the whole picture. Most of the QBs you listed who have been a success in the NFL also played for winning teams in college. Locker is playing on a bad team, which means he has less talent around him, and is often passing in situations in which the opposition knows that he is going to pass the ball.

      While I understand why you think Locker would benefit from another year in school, I think its a safe bet that he's coming out as he is currently viewed as a sure first round pick.
      I dont think he should come out but, in this day and age it is almost a lock he comes out.

      Ya he is on a bad team, but the fact he has only gone over 60% 4 times in his career is just abysmal. Kyle Boller was a career 48% guy, but had 3 games over 60% in his senior season alone. He is on a bad team, but he also plays bad teams. Can you really name anyone Matt Ryan played? The only guy in the NFL is Gosder Cherilous a lineman. Even though Ryan and Locker completely different there situations both weren't good. IMO Ryan performed better and played better in a similar situation. It isn't like Locker has the worst WRs in the world they are ok not spectacular. His leading WR has the same exact ypc as Golden Tate. Chris Polk gives him a good running game something many current and previous college QBs cant say. I'm not saying Washington has USC type of talent, but IMO they have enough for a supposed top 5 pick to be performing better than he is.

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      • #4
        Re: College QBs... what matters

        Stats are extremely relevant. Except for the occasional exception to the rule, few QBs exceed their college production when they make it to the pros. Except for major system changers like Keith Null, what you did in college is going to directly relate to what you do in the pros. Supposedly the value of Locker is that he's coming out of a pro-system. That's supposed to mean we can see what we are getting more clearly and I'm sorry, it's not a very good picture. If you remove the Idaho game, it's been a less than stellar season on all three major scales of completion percentage, TDs to INT and sacks.

        The excuse of not having a lot of talent around you works for not winning. It doesn't really work for not at least looking good.

        And Stanford, Notre Dame and UCLA are not premier defenses against the pass. Not the worst in the world but not premier.
        Last edited by RebelYell; -11-12-2009, 02:01 PM.

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        • general counsel
          nick and other experts, question on broehm
          by general counsel
          Following up on a theme raised by the omniscient and omnipresent Big Bison, can someone explain to me how brian broehm went from being considered a top 5 pick a year ago to someone who might not go in the top 20 (as per nick who we all respect a ton)?

          I didnt see broehm play all that much, but he sure seem to pile up some impressive stats his senior year, completing countless passes to the Az Hakim wanna be harry douglass.

          It appears to me that this is the inverse of the jay cutler situation. Cutler, with minimal expectations, on a team that has been terrible since the days of jim thorpe, shot up the boards and became a top pick when he led that team to several impressive wins. Broehm, with the highest possible expectations (heisman or bust) is being penalized for staying in school an extra year when the reality appears to me that his defense killed him.

          Who knows what impact the pathetic defense had on the play calling or the decision making of broehm. I just dont see what he did to harm his status so significantly, other than to say (as i have said a million times) the quarterback is like the president of the USA. He gets too much credit when things go well and too much blame when they dont go well.

          I hate the argument "He's a winner!" People used that with ken dorsey, who was 39-1 as a college qb and yet anyone could see that he had no shot of being a quality nfl qb. There are tons of factors that go into winning and losing and while the qb is a critical component, there are an awful lot of factors out of the qb's control. Blocking and quality skill position players are obvious, but the play of the defense is critical as well.

          Enough of my ranting. I defer to the draft experts on this, please enlighten me. If Broehm was available at 33, i would grab him in a second and i think Av is correct, i think baltimore takes him at 8.

          ramming speed to all

          general counsel
          -04-14-2008, 10:52 AM
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