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What I have noticed each year?

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  • #1

    What I have noticed each year?

    Is one guys saint is another guys sinner. One may think Clausen is the best option since Peyton Manning and someone else will swear Clausen is a bust. I used that because I was going back and for with the Beast about it but it's true.

    There are going to be question marks about every player in the draft....including Suh. He played mostly against spread offenses. How is he going to handle the banging inside that's going to happen in the NFL? No one knows. Not even you out there who say he's a can't miss product. Everyone is a miss in my opinion until they prove otherwise. Sure Tebow has all the style and grace of a hooligan soccer fan whose team just lost the World Cup and he's pissed (both ways) but who really knows if he's going to be bad or good? No one.

    This is what makes this whole process a crapshoot. No one freakin knows and can say without any reasonable doubt that one of these guys is going to be great or a bust. You may get lucky once in awhile but I bet your overall prediction record is about as good as your winning lotto ticket percentages. What I do enjoy though is how most of us (including me on occasion) think we know it all and everyone else is brain dead because they don't agree with me.

    So with that, let the bull hockey from us fly because after last night it's officially NFL Draft Season.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: What I have noticed each year?

    Grab your bags, it's on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    sigpic

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    • #3
      Re: What I have noticed each year?

      "I'll have a large order of Tx."

      "Would you like that extra-crotchety?"

      "Yes, please."

      I don't think the draft is analogous to the lottery. The lottery is nothing more than a random result produced from a very large (though ultimately finite) group of potential outcomes.

      The draft is not random. There are factors that can be evaluated to enhance the likelihood of a positive outcome. If you put the names of the top 50 QB prospects on slips of paper and pull one randomly from a hat, you have a 1 in 50 chance of getting the best QB. Never more, never less. If you, on the other hand, look at objective data (height, weight, release time, throw velocity, speed, strength, performance statistics, etc.) you can certainly enhance your chance of selecting the best QB.

      The problem isn't that there isn't an algorithm for evaluating players, the problem is that there are so many variables that nobody has come up with an entirely reliable algorithm.

      The only operative question is whether you enjoy the process. I, for one, like watching prospects play, researching their stats and measurements, reading comments from scouts and talent evaluators, and predicting which players will succeed and fail. I like to think that, for a fan, I'm reasonably good at it, but in the end, its just for fun.

      You don't seem to enjoy the process. That's fine. To each his own.

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: What I have noticed each year?

        Life is like a box of chocolates...

        You could say the same thing about dating or hiring for entry level positions or choosing a college major. When making a big decision with a wide variety of choices, inevitably some choices will turn out better than others, and only time will tell whether your choices were the right ones. That doesn't mean there aren't ways to evaluate whether one choice isn't more likely to turn out better than another.

        Unlike a complete game of chance, this one has pieces with unique attributes that will ultimately determine the outcome. Peyton Manning didn't just get lucky and turn out to be a good quarterback. Jamarcus Russell didn't just get unlucky and turn out to be a bad one.

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        • #5
          Re: What I have noticed each year?

          No, I'm starting to really enjoy it because of the way most of people will flop 5 mocks on you by March. All will be different, then when the draft happens it will be completely different than any of their mock drafts.

          I actually don't mind the mock drafts altogether. They do provide great insight. Where I have to really chuckle is when people right now are saying "so and so will be a bust." I'm just as guilty and laugh at my hubris all the time. It's the people who take themselves so seriously about how someone will be a bust and someone won't is the funniest time of year for me.
          Last edited by txramsfan; -01-11-2010, 08:35 AM.

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          • #6
            Re: What I have noticed each year?

            Originally posted by tx
            No one freakin knows and can say without any reasonable doubt that one of these guys is going to be great or a bust. You may get lucky once in awhile but I bet your overall prediction record is about as good as your winning lotto ticket percentages.
            Are you suggesting teams pull names out of hats?
            The more things change, the more they stay the same.

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: What I have noticed each year?

              No, not suggesting that. I realize scouting is very important and again, maybe my post wasn't thorough enough. I don't mind the mock drafts, they are interesting. It's when we, me included, say "so and so won't make it because of this and that" and honestly think that's so when we have no freakin clue what we are talking about.

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              • #8
                Re: What I have noticed each year?

                Originally posted by txramsfan View Post
                No, not suggesting that. I realize scouting is very important and again, maybe my post wasn't thorough enough. I don't mind the mock drafts, they are interesting. It's when we, me included, say "so and so won't make it because of this and that" and honestly think that's so when we have no freakin clue what we are talking about.
                Ok, so then, it's not random. However, you assert that every opinion on this board is of equal value?
                The more things change, the more they stay the same.

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                • #9
                  Re: What I have noticed each year?

                  Not sure what you mean there HUb? It is an internet board.....I know very few personally on this site.....

                  The only person I trust on any board for any extensive knowledge is Howard Balzer. Everyone else is a flunky, me included.

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                  • #10
                    Re: What I have noticed each year?

                    I'm not sure Howard Balzer is any more of an authority than say... Nick. Balzer has more access to inside information, but he's no more a scout or GM than anyone here.

                    For me, its about looking for patterns. What factors tend to be good indicators? I have my ideas. I look for players with good college stats against elite college competition. I look at height/weight, but I try not to overemphasize. I think that while most strength/speed measurements are overrated as positive indicators, I do think they can be accurate negative indicators.

                    Of course, no system is perfect. I might believe that a WR prospect under 5'10 needs to run no slower than a 4.40 to be a success in the NFL, but that wouldn't explain Wes Welker. I might believe that a DE who is 6'6, 289, runs well and puts up big numbers in college is a near sure-thing in the NFL, but that wouldn't explain Jamaal Anderson.

                    In the aggregate, though, we can come up with certain formulas that work. That's the fun part.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: What I have noticed each year?

                      Originally posted by txramsfan View Post

                      This is what makes this whole process a crapshoot. No one freakin knows and can say without any reasonable doubt that one of these guys is going to be great or a bust. You may get lucky once in awhile but I bet your overall prediction record is about as good as your winning lotto ticket percentages. What I do enjoy though is how most of us (including me on occasion) think we know it all and everyone else is brain dead because they don't agree with me.
                      You are completely right.

                      What are mock drafts? What are the people doing to evaluate talent to determine mock drafts? How many do you think are interviewing the players & scouts with inside information they are willing to share? How many are talking with teams themselves to see how the player fits into their future plans or team structure? 90+% of mock drafts are nothing more than a rebuild of average draft position from other mock drafts. A player's ability and the analysis of that ability has virtually nothing to do with a mock draft.

                      All you need to consider is the Jake Locker analysis. People claimed he was going to be the #1 pick because internet "gurus" declared it so. Yet when he said he was going back to college everyone declared that was a good thing because he wasn't ready and would benefit from further development. Think about that for a while. How many Jake Locker type draft evaluations are out there right now that nothing more has been done than filling the player in because that's what previous mock drafts said.

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                      • #12
                        Re: What I have noticed each year?

                        No offense to Nick, who on this site may be the most knowledgeable flunky when it comes to the draft, Howard's job is covering the NFL. He has a national radio show. He's been summoned to give his insight on topics by the NFL Network. He's more of a scout than anyone on here can even come close to and I think Nick would agree.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: What I have noticed each year?

                          Originally posted by txramsfan View Post
                          No offense to Nick, who on this site may be the most knowledgeable flunky when it comes to the draft, Howard's job is covering the NFL. He has a national radio show. He's been summoned to give his insight on topics by the NFL Network. He's more of a scout than anyone on here can even come close to and I think Nick would agree.
                          I used to think Jim Thomas and Howard Balzer had quality analysis. The more I listen long term, the less I hear that is quality from THEM. The best stuff tends to be rumors or rumblings they pick up while at Rams park. The problem is that they try and twist rumors into their personal analysis and when it falls through they just say they were reporting the rumors they heard at Rams Park. You can't have it both ways.

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                          • #14
                            Re: What I have noticed each year?

                            I guess going back to my original post, it has nothing to do with a mock draft. It's the "absolute" that some say this guy or that guy is going to be a bust. That's what makes this funny for me. Even I tend to say that then I have to look back and laugh when the guy makes a pro bowl.

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                            • #15
                              Re: What I have noticed each year?

                              Originally posted by txramsfan View Post
                              Not sure what you mean there HUb? It is an internet board.....I know very few personally on this site.....

                              The only person I trust on any board for any extensive knowledge is Howard Balzer. Everyone else is a flunky, me included.
                              Ah, well then here's where we will have to disagree. For you see, not all opinions share the same value. For example, when Nick says something it bears more value than so-and-so sux.

                              All have the right to an opinion; but not all opinions are right.
                              The more things change, the more they stay the same.

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