Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

1st QB taken = best QB in draft? (the answer may shock you)

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 1st QB taken = best QB in draft? (the answer may shock you)

    As I read more and more posts advocating the selection of Jimmy Clausen because he is regarded as the best QB prospect (or, at least, in the top 2 with Bradford, if healthy), I asked myself this question...

    How often does the first QB selected in the draft prove to be the best QB?

    To answer this, I looked at the drafts from 1997-2007 (a fairly easy task thanks to Wikipedia) to see how often the first QB selected proved to be the most effective pro (I stopped there, as it is a bit too soon to evaluate the QBs from the last two drafts).

    Here's what I found:

    Year/First QB Selected/Best Pro (round selected)

    1997 Jim Druckenmiller/Jake Delhomme (U)
    Not a very good QB year. Jake Plummer was a 2nd round pick, but I think Delhomme has had a better career. Druckenmiller never caught on.

    1998 Peyton Manning/Peyton Manning (1)
    By selecting Manning over Ryan Leaf, the Colts obtained not only the best QB in the draft, but the best in the decade.

    1999 Tim Couch/Donovan McNabb (1)
    Reverse of 1998. The best QB was the second pick, while the first one selected was a major disappointment.

    2000 Chad Pennington/Tom Brady (6)
    Pennington, a mid-first round pick, has been good, but Brady has been a true late round find.

    2001 Michael Vick/Drew Brees (2)
    Brees may not have reached his peak yet, while Vick is trying to comeback from his low point.

    2002 David Carr/David Garrard (4)
    Not a good QB draft.

    2003 Carson Palmer/Carson Palmer (1)
    Palmer lived up to his draft status. Notable, though, that the next best QB in 2003, Tony Romo, was undrafted.

    2004 Eli Manning/Ben Roethlisberger (1)
    Great QB draft. Big Ben edges Eli and Philip Rivers, but its close.

    2005 Alex Smith/Aaron Rogers (1)
    These two were evenly ranked at the end of the college season. Classic example of paralysis by analysis.

    2006 Vince Young/Jay Cutler (1)
    Still early, but right now I'd have to give the edge to Cutler over Young and certainly Matt Leinart.

    2007 Jamarcus Russell/Trent Edwards (3)
    Another bad QB draft. Edwards is no prize, but he's been better than the train wreck that is Russell.

    So... in these 11 drafts, the best QB has only been the first QB taken on two occasions!

    What does this mean for the 2010 draft? Well, let's not overstate it... each year and each player stands alone. That said, I'd be careful to boldly pronounce that Clausen (or Bradford) is CLEARLY the best QB in the draft.

    For all we know, it could end up being Colt McCoy... or Dan LeFevour... or Levi Brown... or Tony Pike... or Sean Canfield... (heck, it could even be Tim Tebow - I doubt it, but you can't rule it out!).
    Last edited by AvengerRam_old; -01-21-2010, 04:34 PM.

  • #2
    Re: 1st QB taken = best QB in draft? (the answer may shock you)

    I think the intangible factor is the difference breaker between a player like Ryan Leaf and Tom Brady. Can't measure heart.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: 1st QB taken = best QB in draft? (the answer may shock you)

      Interesting point Avenger. I can't help but notice a lot of (1) for the best QB taken though. It makes me wish there was a Matt Schab type backup available via trade. The Rams need a young QB sooner or later, and the draft is a real crapshoot.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: 1st QB taken = best QB in draft? (the answer may shock you)

        I agree completely. At the same time, your analysis seems to suggest that the best QBs are picked in the 1st round, with gems in later rounds being the exception. So, it doesn't matter so much who is the 1st pick as much as that pick being in the first round.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 1st QB taken = best QB in draft? (the answer may shock you)

          Well... 6 of the 11 were first rounders, but only 3 were selected in the top 10.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: 1st QB taken = best QB in draft? (the answer may shock you)

            Love the analysis but I have to disagree, Rivers is better than Roethlisbuger. He may have a ring but I would rather have P Riv.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 1st QB taken = best QB in draft? (the answer may shock you)

              Originally posted by Judaxi View Post
              Love the analysis but I have to disagree, Rivers is better than Roethlisbuger. He may have a ring but I would rather have P Riv.
              That wouldn't change my analysis, though, as Rivers was not the first QB selected in that draft (Eli Manning was).

              Comment

              Related Topics

              Collapse

              • AvengerRam_old
                To the "let's draft a QB in the first round to replace Sam" group...
                by AvengerRam_old
                Brandon Weedon
                Blaine Gabbert
                Christian Ponder
                Tim Tebow
                Mark Sanchez
                Josh Freeman
                Jamarcus Russell
                Brady Quinn

                All taken in the first round (2007-2012) to be "the guy." All (with the exception of Gabbert, who's time is coming soon) have been handed the job and then demoted, traded or cut.

                Just a friendly reminder that the grass is most definitely not always greener...
                -10-23-2013, 09:55 AM
              • AvengerRam_old
                Who is the 3rd Best (or... the best Day 2) QB in the Draft?
                by AvengerRam_old
                If this question were asked a couple of months ago, I think Colt McCoy would have won hands down. Now... not so sure.

                Let's see how this turns out...
                Colt McCoy, Texas
                31.37%
                16
                Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan
                47.06%
                24
                Tony Pike, Cincinnati
                5.88%
                3
                Tim Tebow, Florida
                11.76%
                6
                Someone else (who?)
                3.92%
                2
                -03-01-2010, 10:02 AM
              • timsum1283
                Will the Rams draft a QB?
                by timsum1283
                I've seen a lot of mock drafts both on this site and 7-round ones elsewhere that have the Rams picking a mid-late round QB. Obviously Fisher and Snead have reiterated that Bradford is the qb and I believe them. The status of Kellen Clemens is closely correlated to draft plans, too.

                So anyway, will the Rams draft a QB and if so, who and when?
                -03-05-2014, 10:12 AM
              • Guest's Avatar
                Drafting a developmental QB?
                by Guest
                Do you think we will draft a QB to develop in the mid to late rounds?

                If so when? (which round)

                Who will it be?


                im not too good a projecting which round a certain player will be but i would like to draft a QB with the 4th or 5th round pick.

                Do you think Chase Daniels or Pat White would be any good?
                -01-31-2009, 01:28 PM
              • Richbert88
                No QB in the draft next year.
                by Richbert88
                This team still has alot of things to do before becoming a playoff caliber team. Young players maturing..............players staying healthy.

                I would much rather see the Rams address other needs. If things go poorly again, which with they're luck with injuries it will, then next year they might have a shot at Locker. And that may well be the last very high pick this team sees in a while.

                I think Suh in the first, then chase BPA in round 2 and 3, then needs in the rest of the draft. Continue to sign young FAs.

                Whose going to play QB? Whose playing it now.

                Little may retire? who knows. Let's get the rest of the base team fixed up before the QB of the future arrives. Rothsburger style.
                -12-27-2009, 11:24 PM
              Working...
              X