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  • Combine question

    How much weight should the combine be given in determining a players worth?

    I worry it's not realistic because players have weeks and weeks of nothing to do but prepare for a set of tests. They hire professionals to work with them. Do specific exercises and training routines to prepare them. Day in and day out this is their goal.

    But...

    Once they are drafted isn't it more likely they go back to the more familiar routines they showed in college? They will be back to living a more normal life but now with a lot of money.

    I'm sure my worries aren't justified so I'm looking for some answers to make me smarter on this issue.

    I guess to put it simple. Will a guy that runs the 40 in 4.30 be able to perform at that quality during the regular season?

    bonus info...

    Are there more examples of players going on to be great or busts after their stock rises at the combine?

  • #2
    Re: Combine question

    I'm not sure how much emphasis the combine should have in determining a player's worth, but being able to see these guys up close and personal in a pro setting running pro drills or answering pro questions is part of the information gathering process. Obviously you don't want to fall in love with a guy at the combine and forget all the tape you've watched on him through the year, but if his testing confirms something you've seen on tape, it probably makes you feel more comfortable with him.

    For instance, Lineman X just put up 38 reps of 225 on the bench, but if he struggled to hold his ground at the point of attack during the year and couldn't push people around in the running game, you don't want to forget about that because of his lifting results. However, if you liked how quickly Defensive End Y seemed to challenge the edge of the line on gameday, and then he puts up nice numbers in the acceleration and agility drills, then you can probably feel better about what he brings to the table in that regard.

    No one area of evaluation should completely make or break a prospect. But there are some guys who have a lot of untapped potential that get to demonstrate that at a place like the combine, and then go on to build on it at the next level.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Combine question

      Thanks. You sir are very wise.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Combine question

        I think the combine is very, very useful.

        MOST IMPORTANTLY IT IS USED AS A VALIDATION TOOL.

        For example, If you look at Kenny Britt last year he was able to show his speed, size, strength at the combine the bolted him into the first round.

        College height and weight is validated.

        Secondly, it showed the faults in Andre Smith. It showed his lack of focus and he fell quickly on draft boards by showing he gained weight and is a project.


        Many people don't realize that there are only 224 draft spots.

        This year there are 332 combine invites.

        Most of the top picks work to make money in a camp where they get to drain with the other top picks up too the combine.


        The combine also shows how hard you have worked out all year.

        Sure a guy may throw up 400+lbs on the bench press with pure power, but its hard to fake repping 225 - 20+ times if you haven't been doing it during your whole college career.


        The combine has so many good qualities its importance should not be discounted.

        Too often people say don't let the combine take away from what you have seen on tape.

        A better perspective would be that both the combine and past experiences together can give you the best possible projection that will show you NFL PLAYING ABILITY.


        Joe Flacco may not have gotten a legit chance in the NFL if it wasn't for the combine.

        can't wait already..........

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Combine question

          Originally posted by richtree View Post
          Sure a guy may throw up 400+lbs on the bench press with pure power, but its hard to fake repping 225 - 20+ times if you haven't been doing it during your whole college career.
          Great point. The bench press is as much of an indication of weight room dedication than it is actual strength.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Combine question

            If you aren't dedicated to the weight room in college, what are the odds you'll become dedicated all of a sudden in the pros? If you show up 30 lbs over weight, it reflects on your commitment. It isn't the end all be all but it shows a dedication to your craft.

            Every player knows they face this hurdle before being drafted. If they haven't prepared themselves for it like a professional, it tells a lot about the player (Smith of Alabama anyone?).

            Comment

            Related Topics

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            • r8rh8rmike
              Combine Emphasis Changed
              by r8rh8rmike
              Combine Emphasis Changed

              Tuesday, February 23, 2010
              By Nick Wagoner


              There was a time, not too long ago, when a little known player could arrive in Indianapolis for the annual NFL Scouting Combine with little fanfare and leave as a first round pick.

              All that player had to do was show up, throw on his shorts, t shirt and running shows and put on an athletic display that had little to do with football. A player who underperformed could make four years of average tape disappear in about 4.3 seconds.

              But as the years have worn on and many of those workout warriors have busted out of the league, the focus of the combine has changed. Where 40 times and weightlifting skills are still monitored and considered, interviews and injury history now reign supreme.

              “I think the NFL as a whole has gotten better at that,” Daniel Jeremiah, former NFL scout and current analyst of MoveTheSticks.com, said. “Teams are better about it. The best thing you can do is have a round of draft meetings before the combine and you get these guys up on the board and set a baseline so when you go to the combine you might deviate just a little bit to help separate these people on the board but you are not going to make a huge leap on the board once it’s established.”

              The NFL Scouting Combine started in 1977 in a format far different from what is televised on the NFL Network today.

              At the time, various scouting services organized the event to be an opportunity for the various teams that had formed scouting services to get together and evaluate prospects in a controlled setting.

              Over the years, though, the popularity of the event took on a life of its own. College players from around the country now seek the coveted invitation to go to Indianapolis to get themselves in front of the assembled NFL world.

              As the combine continued to grow, it became easy for players to make an impression on the scouts by their ability. See, the combine tests players in a variety of ways.

              In addition to the position specific drills, players run the 40-yard dash, the 20-yard shuttle, the three-cone drill, the 60-yard shuttle and do the bench press, vertical jump and broad jump.

              Of course, none of the players do any of those things in football pads or helmets and they don’t do any of the position drills with an opponent.

              Through the years, players such as Boston College defensive end Mike Mamula have found ways to boost their stock.

              While Mamula was a talented college player, he was widely regarded as a late first round to second round pick at best. After he hoisted the 225 pounds 26 times and ran a 4.62 40, he skyrocketed to the seventh pick of that year’s draft.

              After an injury-plagued six seasons, Mamula retired with 31.5 sacks or about five sacks per year.

              ...
              -02-23-2010, 11:47 PM
            • OldRamsfan
              NFL Insider on combine
              by OldRamsfan
              Combine still critical to evaluating talent..



              By Vic Carucci
              NFL Insider


              INDIANAPOLIS (Feb. 18, 2003) -- Maybe it no longer is the one-stop-shopping experience it was originally meant to be.

              Maybe it doesn't provide a definitive answer to every critical question that NFL teams have about every player they view as a potential pick in April's draft.

              But the annual National Football Scouting Combine that began here today continues to have an important place in the overall process of evaluating college football talent.

              If it didn't, it wouldn't still rank as one of the few must-attend offseason events for every general manager, coach, and scout in the league. Being here is mandatory, because this is where more than 300 of the nation's top NFL prospects -- which represent the lifeblood of all 32 clubs -- have been invited to spend the next several days.

              True, GMs, coaches, and scouts will once again complain about the higher-rated players who, on the advice of their agents, refuse to run the 40-yard dash or participate in the several agility and strength drills conducted for their assessment in the RCA Dome. Representatives of the upper-tier prospects tend to believe that their clients are better served displaying their physical skills during smaller, more personalized workout sessions scheduled over the next few months at their respective college campuses. That, of course, means team talent evaluators will have to travel around the country to watch them, which was exactly what the Combine was supposed to have eliminated when it began many years ago.

              The fact is the task of evaluating prospective NFL players has outgrown converging on a central location for a single week. Given the kind of money that clubs will pay in salary, and other ultra-high financial stakes affected by draft-day decisions, there is no such thing as having too much information.

              Before the Combine ends on Feb. 24, every prospect will be weighed, measured and seen -- not unlike cattle before an auction -- wearing only a pair of shorts. Each will undergo a physical examination by all 32 team physicians, who will be looking to see how players have healed from known (and sometimes unknown) injuries from college. They are expected to pay particularly close attention to the chronic shin problems of Marshall quarterback Byron Leftwich and to the major reconstructive knee surgery that University of Miami halfback Willis McGahee underwent after an injury suffered in last month's Fiesta Bowl.

              Most general managers and coaches will tell you that the physical examinations are the most valuable aspect of the Combine, because they are able to get the opinions of their own team doctors following their own medical standards.

              After that, the next-most helpful piece of information comes from one-on-one conversations
              ...
              -02-13-2006, 10:15 AM
            • RamBill
              Gil Brandt NFL combine success stories + who could shine
              by RamBill
              NFL combine success stories set bar for hopefuls like EJ Manuel

              By Gil Brandt
              Senior Analyst
              Published: Feb. 20, 2013 at 01:55 p.m.

              NFL combine success stories set bar for hopefuls like EJ Manuel - NFL.com

              The NFL Scouting Combine is a great showcase for some well-trained athletes, but it's also more than that: It represents a chance for football prospects to prove they have what it takes to make it in the pros.

              That's especially true for guys who are perceived, for one reason or another, as questionable investments. They get a shot to show anyone who is interested that they can catch the football more consistently than their reputation says, or that they do have the technical skills to excel at the quarterback position. This often goes beyond pride; if a prospect can lift himself up a round or two -- or a spot or two in the first round -- he stands to gain a significant amount of money.

              Of course, a good combine performance can't make up for a history of poor play in college. People don't care if you're a so-called "workout wonder." They want to see what you are as a football player. A guy who works out really well in Indy but grades poorly as a competitor won't improve his stock much. However, a guy who grades well and wows scouts can turbocharge his value.

              That said, I don't think anyone ever hurts themselves by participating in the combine; in fact, in most cases, prospects only help themselves. Guys are so well prepared, what with all the training and lifting and proper eating, that they come to Indy ready to give their maximum effort. Even if they do lag in a certain area, they've always got their pro days to fall back on.

              As we get ready for all that drill-running and measuring and evaluating to begin, I thought I'd give a few examples of some current NFL players who significantly boosted their stock with electric combine performances. I also put together a short list of prospects who will soon get a chance to do the same.

              COMBINE SUCCESS STORIES


              Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
              Folks were skeptical that Newton would be able to succeed at the quarterback position in the NFL; he was the kind of prospect who made some wonder if he would be better off switching to another position, like tight end. At the combine, though, he topped the charts in the athletic drills, and while he didn't necessarily do as well during throwing drills, he did throw. Rather than shunning that portion of the event, he went out there and showed everyone he had the potential to be an NFL quarterback. After a strong pro day, he wound up being picked first overall by the Panthers in the 2011 NFL Draft.

              Stephen Hill, WR, New York Jets
              The knock on the Georgia Tech product heading into the 2012 NFL Draft was that he'd dropped about half of the balls that went his way while playing for a team that didn't...
              -02-20-2013, 06:54 PM
            • AvengerRam_old
              5 Questions I'm Hoping the Combine Will Answer
              by AvengerRam_old
              While I think Combine workouts can be over-valued, I do think that we will obtain some useful information this week. Here are the 5 questions I hope the Combine will answer:

              1. Is/are there any WR(s) who stand(s) apart?
              Right now, there's not much separation in my ranking of the top 6 or 7 WRs in the draft. I see the group as consisting of a lot of guys who, at this point, seem like the type of players you'd select beteen the 15th and 50th pick of the draft. The Combine could change this, though. Certainly, 40 times matter for WRs. While I would not completely devalue a highly productive receiver (i.e. Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins) because he runs a 4.5 instead of a 4.45, you have to consider the value of a true burner (low 4.4s or better). I also think the shuttle times are worth looking at, particulary for potential slot receivers (i.e. Tavon Austin). My hope is that, after the Combine, there will be some clarity as to which receivers are really a the top of the class.

              2. Is the safety position as deep as I think it is?
              I can't recall a year in which the safety position appeared, at this stage of the offseason, to be as deep as it seems to be this year. I count at least 8 players (Vaccaro, Elam, Reid, Swearinger, Jefferson, Thomas, Rambo, Cyprien, McDonald) who have at least a Round 3 rating. Will the workouts support this? If so, that bodes well for the Rams, who need a safety, but won't necessarily have to grab one in Round 1.

              3. Who are the 4-3 OLBs?
              Much of the attention at the OLB spot seems to go to rush LBs who fit a 3-4. The Rams, on the other hand, need to find a SLB for a 4-3. Who are the top prospects at that spot? My money is on Khasseem Greene of Rutgers.

              4. Among the OL, who is long and strong?
              While, once again, no test is conclusive, I do think that an OL prospect who has long arms AND does well on the bench press test has a good chance of having the tools to succeed. A truly poor showing on the bench, or T-Rex arms, can really downgrade an OL.

              5. Who am I missing?
              Every year, players emerge at the Combine. Some will be mere "workout warriors," while others may be diamonds in the rough. I have my eye on a few sleepers, but I'm sure that next week we'll be talking about a player or two who has not yet been mentioned.
              -02-19-2013, 08:57 AM
            • AvengerRam_old
              Who will be the biggest "riser" after the Combine?
              by AvengerRam_old
              I've listed a few guys I think could, by virtue of their Combine performance, be big "risers" as the draft approaches. Who do you think will gain the most from the week in Indianapolis?
              Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech
              30.00%
              3
              Corey Fuller, WR, Virginia Tech
              0.00%
              0
              Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State
              10.00%
              1
              D.J. Harper, RB, Boise State
              0.00%
              0
              Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
              10.00%
              1
              Trevardo Williams, OLB, UConn
              0.00%
              0
              Duke Williams, S, Nevada
              0.00%
              0
              Someone else (who?)
              50.00%
              5
              -02-10-2013, 09:11 AM
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