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The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

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  • The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

    How did Cowboys fans feel right before the team drafted Troy Aikman?

    How did Browns fans feel right before the team drafted Tim Couch?

    How did Colt fans feel right before the team drafted Peyton Manning?

    How did Niners fans feel right before the team drafted Alex Smith?

    The answer to all four questions is the same: exactly the same way we feel right now in anticipation of drafting Sam Bradford.

    Every first QB selected in every draft has had one thing in common: they were all expected to be great players. Likewise, they all had some hole in their resume that caused scouts, commentators and fans to question whether they would be successful. Troy Aikman had only an "average arm." Tim Couch was undersized. Peyton Manning could never win a big game in college. Alex Smith was a system player. There are ALWAYS criticisms and doubts.

    So how do we know that Bradford will be the kind of QB we hope he will be?

    We don't. Nobody does.

    All you can do is look at his resume, listen to those who have objectively evaluated him, and then decide - should we take a chance on this guy? Because that is ultimately what every draft pick involves: taking a chance on someone we think and hope will play up to expectations.

    For my money, the time is right to take such a chance. Bradford has, in my opinion, enough demonstrated good qualities to be a very good NFL starting QB. The Rams need a young QB, and they, in a sense, have very little to lose at this point.

    So, I say, roll the dice and hope for the best. If Bradford fails, well... nothing ventured, nothing gained. If he succeeds, then this draft will be viewed by all as the turning point for the Rams.

  • #2
    Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

    The year the Cowboys drafted Aikman, they also drafted Steve Walsh (Johnson's QB at Miami!) in the supplemental draft for a first round pick. A lot of people considered him the preferred QB for the Cowboys. The pick for Walsh cost the Cowboys the first pick the following years draft!

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    • #3
      Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

      I don't know if this is entirely true. I think no matter whether they were drafting a franchise qb number one you could attach a % of confidence in that pick based on the amount of risk.

      To say that Browns fans would be as confident in Tim Couch and Niners fans were as confident in Alex Smith when they took them as Colts fans were when they took Peyton I think is a bit misleading.

      I'm sure a number of Browns fans had reservations about Couch's transition from the Hal Mumme offense to the NFL, as well as I hope his arm strength, and I know there were some doubters that Alex Smith was going number #1 because it was a weak draft class.

      That being said, while I want to believe in Bradford fully, I believe the pick has a good percentage of risk, possibly less than Couch or Smith, but far more than Peyton.

      In my opinion, and I know this is beating a dead horse, the risk for me in Bradford is attributable to the unknown, first and foremost in my mind is that Bradford wasn't under pressure during his time at Oklahoma, and when he was, to an extent he struggled. Secondary for me, and first for a lot of people is his shoulder issues, and I name this, although its been mentioned I think too often on here, because consistent shoulder issues and multiple surgeries on a shoulder can significantly reduce arm strength over time and could eventually lead to this being a liability in his game, and reduce the length of his career.

      I think what happens to an extent, and where I agree with you as to what I and I hope all of us do no matter what, is getting on board with the pick, and hoping despite any doubts I have in Bradford that he will be that HOF pick.
      Last edited by npow81; -04-01-2010, 11:04 AM.

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      • #4
        Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

        Originally posted by npow81 View Post
        I don't know if this is entirely true. I think no matter whether they were drafting a franchise qb number one you could attach a % of confidence in that pick based on the amount of risk.
        You can try to do so, but its ultimately a subjective and arbitrary projection.

        To say that Browns fans would be as confident in Tim Couch and Niners fans were as confident in Alex Smith when they took them as Colts fans were when they took Peyton I think is a bit misleading.
        Not at all. In fact, I can guarantee you that there were plenty of Colts fans (all of whom have since blocked out the memory) who screamed that they had taken the wrong guy and should have taken Ryan Leaf.

        Certainty is found only in hindsight.

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        • #5
          Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

          Ok, construe my words how you like.

          I never said anything about "certainty", I know there where folks in the Leaf camp when the Colts drafted Manning.

          But if your saying that people were just as confident, as a whole, in Couch or Smith, as they were Manning, I think you are sorely mistaken.

          Yes hindsight does muddy the waters, but I'm not basing what I said on hindsight, I remember how I felt about Couch and Smith when they were drafted, and I remember how I felt about Manning when he was drafted, and I had a great deal more confidence that Manning would be a HOF than Couch or Smith--and I think that likely would apply to their fans as well.
          Last edited by npow81; -04-01-2010, 12:46 PM.

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          • #6
            Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

            You can nitpick all you want, but it does not chance the facts or my overall point.

            I can tell you that I recall plenty of naysayers speaking their mind before Manning was drafted. I also recall people touting the likes of Heath Shuler, Joey Harrington and Andre Ware before they were drafted.

            Bottom line is that every QB taken in the top 10 picks has two things (1) high expectations, and (2) vocal critics. Bradford is no different. In the end, you have to be willing to take a chance.

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            • #7
              Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

              Originally posted by AvengerRam View Post

              Bottom line is that every QB taken in the top 10 picks has two things (1) high expectations, and (2) vocal critics. Bradford is no different. In the end, you have to be willing to take a chance.
              This is mostly a true statement.

              My point is the degree of the risk (or criticism), and subjective or not, there is a substantive difference between the qbs you mentioned.

              I would say it like this if in the end the expectations outweigh the risk, then you have to be willing to take the chance.

              Let's not get lost here, overall I support your overarching theme here, which is despite anyone's doubts we should leave them by the wayside and support the pick if that is the f.o.'s decision.

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              • #8
                Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

                The feeling you guys are feeling right now... that is the feeling that you get when you are getting ready to draft a HOF QB. : )

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                • #9
                  Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

                  Originally posted by npow81 View Post
                  My point is the degree of the risk (or criticism), and subjective or not, there is a substantive difference between the qbs you mentioned.
                  Dude....

                  If you feel the need to argue, at least use words correctily. A subjective assessment of a prospect's ability and/or risk is, by definition, not substantive. Thus, the "degree" of risk cannot be calculated prospectively.

                  Sure, you can say "I thought Peyton Manning had an 80% chance of being successful, while I thought Tim Couch had only a 20% chance of being successful," but those numbers were and are subjective and arbitrary. In hindsight, they appear to have been vindicated, but I'm sure there are players you thought would be good who were not, and players you didn't think much of who ended up going to the Pro Bowl.

                  Or... maybe you have perfect foresight. If so, I implore you to get a job with the Rams' Front Office or scouting department. They could certainly use your help.

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                  • #10
                    Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

                    Originally posted by xXsUbLiMeXx View Post
                    The feeling you guys are feeling right now... that is the feeling that you get when you are getting ready to draft a HOF QB. : )
                    Here's hoping!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

                      You are right that was a misuse of words, I am deeply deeply sorry (but you got me, oh man zing!, i should have my boss edit this while I do this at work)

                      I wasn't attempting to argue, you are entitled to your opinion, if you disagree that's a-ok with me.

                      As I have stated before to you, I know I am not a f.o. personnel man , but if you take even the smallest sample of people, and polled them during the years each Manning, Couch, and Smith to my memory you would have gotten drastically different confidence in Couch/Smith v. Manning when they were drafted.

                      In other words if you are telling me that if you would have given a poll to 100 people, asking do you believe this player will be a HOF, each at the time these three were drafted, say the typical 1-5 strongly disagree through strongly agree type thing, and would have got anywhere near the same scores for Couch/Smith as Manning, I think your a crazy man, cause that's not how things really were and not how things really are going to be, but that's just MY OPINION.

                      I didn't say that I knew anything that anyone else might not know or that I have a any better ability in this regard than anyone else on here, because I don't, all I said is that my memory of the opinion of these players wasn't the same as you propose it to be.

                      If you have a problem with my OPINION, then use a p.m., thanks.
                      Last edited by npow81; -04-01-2010, 11:36 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

                        Originally posted by npow81 View Post
                        If you have a problem with my OPINION, then use a p.m., thanks.
                        That's a silly comment. This forum is all about debating opinions. Why would I use a PM for that.

                        As for foresight... trust me, if there was a way to create a mathematical equation to predict success or failure for potential draft choices, someone would have found it by now. I know I've been looking for one for years. Problem is... there isn't one.

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                        • #13
                          Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

                          The Rams need to narrow their choice down to 2 guys, then take the opposite one.

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                          • #14
                            Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

                            I sure hope Bradford becomes a really good QB. Just one question. Will he start right away? Or will he even start at all?

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                            • #15
                              Re: The difference between how it feels to draft a HOF and a "bust" QB

                              Originally posted by AvengerRam View Post
                              That's a silly comment. This forum is all about debating opinions. Why would I use a PM for that.

                              As for foresight... trust me, if there was a way to create a mathematical equation to predict success or failure for potential draft choices, someone would have found it by now. I know I've been looking for one for years. Problem is... there isn't one.
                              I was referring to your need to make me seem like I think I am a f.o. man everytime I disagree with you

                              You're a silly silly man, at times, whatever, I give up
                              Last edited by npow81; -04-03-2010, 12:52 PM.

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                                1) Disenchantment with one's QB is hardly anything new. Tony Romo, Mark Sanchez and Michael Vick are among the more prominent guys who have been roasted by their team's fan base. Each has had his share of successes and failures as a player. Eli Manning, who has won two Super Bowls, was ripped for several years before his fortunes turned. For the duration of what we hope is an excellent career, Sam Bradford will endure the same questioning and the same second guessing.

                                2) Feeling compelled to refute EVERY negative Bradford post is petty and a waste of energy. Recognize that fans are fickle- and that will never change. Ask Cam Newton- who was "great" last year but now "sucks and can't play".

                                3) A QB will always get more credit than he deserves when they win and more blame than they deserve when they lose. As a number 1 overall pick,and as a guy many fans were sold on being "the face of the franchise for years to come" Bradford will be scrutinized heavier than most. Expect it.

                                4) Stats must be taken in their proper context when defending or supporting a guy. They can be misleading in many ways and can be twisted to support your own argument or refute the other guy's. You can talk about "dropped passes" for instance, but fail to mention spectacular grabs by those same receivers. Or neglect to mention "poorly thrown incompletions to wide open receivers". Things tend to even out over the long term. And one must attempt to be balanced when assessing a guy's performance or body of work.

                                5) I am truly convinced Sam Bradford is a winning player. Because he is not Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger does not mean he isn't any good. He has shown me enough over the course of about two full seasons that given proper support he can be a guy ranked in the top third in the NFL at his position.

                                6) CONSISTENT WINNING is the only thing that ultimately will mollify fans. The intelligent fan recognizes his team's inadequacies, but at the end of the day is uninterested in excuses or reasons why a guy can't get the job done. Shortcomings on the line or at the WR position can only be talked about for so long before we start becoming apologists for bad QB play.

                                Some might not agree, but I think that the end of NEXT season would be the time to make a definitive judgment on Bradford. He will have had 2 years in the same system with the same head coach and a young and improving corps of receivers. It will be more than fair by then.
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                                I have seen a few posts where there is an assumption that Bradford will be better than Marc Bulger. ( this is not a Bradford bash thread). Bulger was a probowl quarterback when he had Big "O" taking care of his blind side and Holt and Bruce to throw to. He was below average with our current line and receivers. If we take Bradford this year, can we assemble enough playmakers for him to succeed next year? I don't see how we will add enough talent to help any quarterback this year. Do we sit an 80 mil quarterback for a year until the tools are in place for him to succeed?
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                              • AvengerRam_old
                                A common statement I've read about Bradford that makes no sense to me.
                                by AvengerRam_old
                                I've lost track of how many times I've read comments from commentators and fans that have expressed the idea that Bradford is worth the 4th or 5th pick in the draft, but not the 1st.

                                Huh?

                                How does that make sense?

                                From the Rams perspective, if they want to take Bradford, obviously it would be advantageous to trade down, get more picks, and still get him.

                                But what if that option simply is not available? I find it hard to hard to comprehend how anyone can say his combination of size/skill/college production/medical reports/interviews make him good enough to merit the 4th pick, but not the 1st.

                                When I say this, I'm not talking about his value in comparison to other prospects. I have no beef with someone simply saying "he's worth the 4th pick because he's the 4th best player in the draft." That's not the analysis I'm talking about. I'm talking about those who say "he'd be a reach at No. 1" and then turn around and say "he's a good selection at No. 4."

                                Again... huh?

                                A QB selected with the 4th pick in the draft is expected to become the starter no later than his second or third season, and to become a successful starting QB for a decade. If you think QB prospect is good enough to do that, how is he not good enough to warrant the first pick. Isn't a 10 year successful starting QB worth the first pick in the draft?

                                To me, when the Rams look at Bradford, the quesiton should be is he (1) someone they envision as being a "franchise" QB, or (2) not.

                                If the answer is (1), he's worth the first pick (that's not to say he'd necessarily be the best BPA, but he would be a worthy first pick). If the answer is (2), he shouldn't be taken with the first, the third, the fifth or the eleventh pick.
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