Last year at about this time, I suggested that, by the time the draft rolled around, Mark Sanchez could be on the Rams short list of players to select with the second pick in the draft. Many scoffed and, truth be told, even I was a bit uncertain with my prognostication. Of course, in the end, Sanchez rose from late first round prospect and became a top 5 pick on the strength of his workouts and interviews.
I can see a similar scenario occurring with Sam Bradford.
Last year, before Bradford decided to return to Oklahoma, many had him rated as a potential first pick in the draft. Then, as fate would have it, his season was scuttled by a shoulder injury.
Now, he is still considered a top 10 pick by most, but there are question marks.
So here are the "what ifs."
What if the doctors say he is fine and that there should be no long term impact from his shoulder injury?
What if he impresses at the Combine and/or his individual workouts?
What if he presents as a confident leader in his interviews?
If these things happen, the Rams very well could decide that the time is now to take a chance at drafting a potential franchise QB.
If that occurs, there will still be decisions to make. The Rams could, of course, simply select Bradford first. Alternatively, they could smokescreen a desire to take Ndamukong Suh and try to trade down. The logical trade partner would be Tampa, who likely would covet Suh, and would not take QB with the first choice (having spent a first round pick last year on a QB). Such a plan would not be foolproof, though. If, as some have speculated, the Redskins want Bradford, they could trade up with Detroit and take him at #2, thereby leaving the Rams to take who? (G.McCoy? Clausen?).
I'll leave the trade issue out of the analysis for now and simply say this.
Right now, I see Suh as being a prospect who is extremely likely (say 75%) to be an impact player at a very important position.
Right now, I see Bradford as being a prospect who has a decent chance (say 40-50%) to be an impact player at the MOST important position.
With those odds, I go with Suh (absent a great trade offer).
But if Bradford's stock rises, and I start to see him as having a better than 50% chance of being a franchise QB... then the choice becomes very difficult.
Bottom line: we're in the first lap of a multi-lap race. Its way too early to call the winner.
-02-02-2010, 08:03 AM
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