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Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

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  • Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

    A lot was made about the results of Sam Bradford's pro day. Some said it was the best they'd seen in a while; I believe Gil Brandt said it was the best one he'd watched since Troy Aikman.

    The reaction and the groundswell of momentum Sam has received because of this event makes me scratch my head a little. Were people legitimately nervous that he wouldn't look good throwing the football? Did they think he wouldn't be healthy at this workout?

    Some will argue that Bradford's pro day was so important because it's the first time we've seen him throw since his surgery. That's fine, but again I ask, did anyone expect him to hold a pro day if he wasn't going to throw well or if he wasn't recovered? I really don't think so.

    Pro days aren't exactly designed to make the prospects look bad, especially the top guys. They're heavily scripted and prepared for. It shouldn't be shocking or draft board altering when a top prospect puts on a good pro day. In shorts and a t-shirt, the expectation is that he's going to look good.

    Case in point - I present two articles for consideration, and while you're reading, I'd like for you to consider how much emphasis should be put on a pro day? Does a great pro day necessary correlate to greatness at the pro level?

    We start with a blast from the past, as Yahoo's Charles Robinson reports on the stellar pro day of Utah quarterback Alex Smith...


    Pro day report: Alex Smith
    By Charles Robinson, Yahoo! Sports
    March 16, 2005

    Utah quarterback Alex Smith followed in the footsteps of Auburn's Ronnie Brown and USC's Mike Williams by wowing team officials at his personal pro day in Salt Lake City on Wednesday.

    One personnel source on hand said Smith had a "paramount" workout. Smith looked so good, he likely vaulted to the top of the 2005 draft's quarterback class a day before California's Aaron Rodgers responds with his personal pro day.

    Throwing passes to Utah teammates and fellow draft prospects Parris Warren and Steve Savoy, Smith worked out in front of more than 60 officials, from every team in the league. The top three teams in the draft – the San Francisco *****, Miami Dolphins and Cleveland Browns – all had key personnel in attendance, including ***** head coach Mike Nolan, Dolphins head coach Nick Saban and Browns general manager Phil Savage. Smith apparently spent a significant amount of time with all three men in the days leading up to the workout.

    What teams knew about Smith heading into his pro day was that he was smart (he scored a 40 out of 50 on the Wonderlic test), could handle a complex offense and had adequate athleticism. What they didn't know was whether he could be accurate and show top-notch velocity on his passes.

    One of the chief concerns about Smith – like Jacksonville's Byron Leftwich two years ago – was that he operated a great deal out of the shotgun in college. In response, Smith demonstrated on Wednesday that he could drop from under center and still maintain good throwing mechanics. He also went through various drills to show he could throw down field with accuracy but also hit a running back in the flat.

    "It was all fluid," the personnel source said. "He didn't have many problems doing things – the out [pattern], getting [the ball] deep and whatever – he looked natural. … He looked prepared. Those guys, the quarterbacks, get nervous sometimes in that situation and then they are all over the place with the ball. He didn't look that way at all.

    "There was some cheering at the end. I think he got a lot of pats on the back with people walking out feeling satisfied."

    And now, USA Today details a pro day two years after Smith's, traveling to Baton Rouge to report on the outstanding workout of JaMarcus Russell...


    Russell wows scouts at LSU's pro day
    By Glenn Guilbeau, Gannett News Service

    BATON ROUGE — Quarterback JaMarcus Russell was the center of attention Wednesday as throngs of NFL coaches, executives and personnel directors crowded the LSU indoor practice facility to dissect the abilities of the draft-eligible Tigers on Pro Day.

    One coach in particular — new Oakland Raiders coach Lane Kiffin — could not take his eyes off the 6-foot-6, 256-pound Russell.

    "Obviously, I'm very impressed," Kiffin said. "We were very impressed. He had a great day. He seems very first class, very easy to get along with. No doubt he was a great leader here. That's why everybody wants him now."

    Russell, who left LSU a year early, is projected by many analysts as the first player picked in the NFL draft on April 28. The Raiders have the first pick.

    "There's a chance we'll take him," Kiffin deadpanned, guaranteeing nothing. "There's a percentage chance, but I'm not giving it to you. There are always things that could happen as far as trades. We still have other guys to go see."

    Russell threw passes to familiar targets Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis, who also each have a chance to go in the first round or early in the second round. Russell had not been throwing to Bowe and Davis much since the 42-14 win over Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl because he has been in Arizona working out.

    "Being away from these receivers and to come back and throw as well as he did shows who he is," Kiffin said.

    Kiffin noticed how well Russell moved, too. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.8 seconds, which surprised a lot of the NFL observers, as did his weight of 256.

    "He was 265 at the combine," Kiffin said. "Dropping nine pounds knowing this was a big day shows his commitment and shows that his mind's in the right place."

    Russell said he could have done better.

    "On some of the routes, I could've been better balanced when I was throwing," he said. "I could've thrown over the top a lot more."

    Kiffin liked this attitude.

    "Obviously, there's always a lot of room for improvement," he said. "That's what you want to hear a quarterback say, too."

    LSU coach Les Miles looked on proudly.

    "I hope that our fan base realizes what a treat it was to have a JaMarcus Russell playing quarterback for us," Miles said.

    There were some rumblings among the NFL people when Russell chose not to take part in some of the agility drills. Kiffin did not fuss.

    "Quarterbacks have done that before," he said. "That's not nearly as important. And I'm sure he wanted to focus on what was most important today."

    Russell said he feels draft day getting closer.

    "It was going slow, but now it feels like it's speeding up," he said. "And the reality of life is really coming."

    A contract package in the neighborhood of $50 million could be coming for the LSU product. Quarterback Alex Smith of Utah signed for $49.5 million over six years, including $24 million of guaranteed money, when the San Francisco ***** selected him first overall in 2005.

    "To be a first pick, man, it would go down in history for the caliber of players that you're announced around," Russell said.
    ESPN's Todd McShay said at the time of the workout that, in his ten years of scouting, Russell's was the best pro day he'd ever seen from a quarterback.


    Now, let's get the disclaimer out of the way. I'm not trying to bash Bradford or suggest his good pro day means he's going to fail at the NFL level. I'm not suggesting his career will mirror that of Russell or Smith, though I think there are some valid comparisons to be made to Smith, truth be told.

    Rather, my point is that a great pro day - even one heralded as one of the best so-and-so has ever seen - isn't something to go gaga over. Both of these pro days were said to have really cemented Smith and Russell in as the top picks of their respective drafts. But if you're making your mind up on a prospect based on his pro day, then I think you may be putting too much emphasis on the event itself and not enough emphasis in other places.

    I'd love to hear some thoughts.

  • #2
    Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

    You know Nick I think this is the first time someone else is seeing the light for once. Bradford gets catupulted as number one on the board and favorite because he can throw the pigskin around a little in shorts a shirt and no defenders? Seriously? I bet Mr Elway still has most of the Bradford workout throws left in him to have his own ProDay. I think you above most people have a more down to Earth view of things that most people do not have that get caught up in the hype. I do see overall he is the best QB prospect in this draft but I don't see a huge difference or between him and Colt McCoy. And if we took McCoy and if he is a bust the loss of money and place taken in draft will be minimal than a first overall selection if Bradford is. Either way I think we are full speed ahead regardless to get Bradford. I hope it's the right choice! I just see some important red flags.....

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    • #3
      Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

      I think the pro day most helps the guys who are coming back from injury. It's also useful to see things that a guy just wasn't asked to do in college. For example, seeing if a defensive end can turn his hips and drop into coverage or seeing if a quarterback can comfortably throw with zip on the intermediate routes. In my mind, nothing at the pro day overrides the game tape, but it can help fill in the gaps as to what the player is physically capable of.

      In effect, the pro day addresses physical prerequisites but not overall suitability for the position. In Bradford's case, it just gives us good reason to think that he deserves whatever draft grade we would have given him at this time last year.

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      • #4
        Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

        I couldn't agree more. Seems as though so many people who were once advocates of drafting Suh have now jumped on the Bradford bandwagon in great part due to his pro day but the reality is, nothing has really changed.
        Nick, please forward your post to Devaney!

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        • #5
          Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

          I think a Pro day is an important event, and did tell us a little more then we knew about Sam Bradford. Sure it is not going to tell you if he succeeds or not, but it was an enlightening event about Bradford mechanics, accuracy, and arm strength all of which have been under scrutiny since his injury. Even with no defenders present completing 62 of 63 pass's is rather impressive, also showing us that he has the arm strength to hit receivers 40 yards down field in stride is very important for a QB prospect who has been under a lot of criticism for his arm strength. Finally the big daddy off all is that his injured shoulders seemed to be fully healed, and he had shown no negative effects in his throwing motion from it.

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          • #6
            Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

            I wholly agree that Pro Days are overrated. That said, I never thought much of Smith or Russell before their Pro Days. In Bradford's case, it was more about seeing if he looked like his shoulder injury had changed his throwing motion or impacted his velocity. I think he passed those tests.

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            • #7
              Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

              Originally posted by Goldenfleece
              In effect, the pro day addresses physical prerequisites but not overall suitability for the position. In Bradford's case, it just gives us good reason to think that he deserves whatever draft grade we would have given him at this time last year.
              So because of a great pro day, nothing that happened in 2009 should have an effect on his current draft grade?

              Originally posted by 01d 0rd3r
              I think a Pro day is an important event, and did tell us a little more then we knew about Sam Bradford. Sure it is not going to tell you if he succeeds or not, but it was an enlightening event about Bradford mechanics, accuracy, and arm strength all of which have been under scrutiny since his injury. Even with no defenders present completing 62 of 63 pass's is rather impressive, also showing us that he has the arm strength to hit receivers 40 yards down field in stride is very important for a QB prospect who has been under a lot of criticism for his arm strength. Finally the big daddy off all is that his injured shoulders seemed to be fully healed, and he had shown no negative effects in his throwing motion from it.
              I just don't think much of that was really in question, to be honest. I don't think it told us anything more than confirming that he was healthy, which we all assumed he would be.

              Bradford had his surgery in October and had five months to prepare for this day. Did anyone really expect him to come out and have questionable mechanics, accuracy, or arm strength on the biggest day of his career?

              Confirming what you already expected just doesn't seem like it should build the kind of momentum we've seen, IMO.

              Originally posted by AvengerRam
              I wholly agree that Pro Days are overrated. That said, I never thought much of Smith or Russell before their Pro Days. In Bradford's case, it was more about seeing if he looked like his shoulder injury had changed his throwing motion or impacted his velocity. I think he passed those tests.
              The point of bringing up the Smith and Russell pro days was simply to compare the situations to what we're seeing now. Both had excellent pro days which seemed to secure their spot at the top of the draft, similar to what's happened to Bradford.

              Doesn't mean Bradford's going to flop, but I think the importance of what is really just a pretty scripted and well rehearsed workout is being overblown. It's happening, I think, mostly in the media, but some fans are buying into it a bit. Look at the number of people who have shifted to prefer Bradford based on this event.

              There's a reason some of the top QB prospects over the last couple of drafts have skipped the combine even when healthy, opting instead to throw at a pro day format that's much more favorable to them.

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              • #8
                Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

                I agree that, if (injury aside) you didn't think Bradford was a good enough QB to be selected No. 1 before his Pro Day, then you shouldn't be swayed by the mere fact that he hit 62 of 63 passes under controlled conditions.

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                • #9
                  Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

                  The only thing Bradford's pro-day told me is that he was healthy. I don't want to go down the road of saying no one thought he wasn't, because the biggest concern about him that I heard for weeks at a time was that his shoulder was messed up.
                  "I've been saving the Universe for over a thousand years. I figure it owes me just this once."

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                  • #10
                    Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

                    Originally posted by AvengerRam
                    I agree that, if (injury aside) you didn't think Bradford was a good enough QB to be selected No. 1 before his Pro Day, then you shouldn't be swayed by the mere fact that he hit 62 of 63 passes under controlled conditions.
                    Sure, but I also don't see how the event in itself is significant enough to sway you even if you're on the fence.

                    This is more of a general question than one about Bradford specifically, but what is it about succeeding in a rehearsed and controlled environment set up to highlight a player's strengths that should make someone say, "Okay, now I'm convinced?"

                    I get that people wanted to see that he was healthy. But was his recovery ever really in doubt? His surgery reportedly went fine and we heard of no setbacks. In fact, my impression was that he had the surgery in part to help ensure he recovered and returned to form. The fact that he has is great, but not really unexpected.

                    Leading up to the event, Billy Devaney called Bradford's pro day his "final test." And I get that a pro day can help you confirm what you've seen on tape for a guy. But I guess my question to him would be, for these talented first round prospects, is a pro day really that hard of a test to pass? Alex Smith and JaMarcus Russell passed their respective "tests" with flying colors, and were praised heavily for it.

                    Again, not trying to suggest Bradford is going to flop like Smith and Russell have. But if a prospect's pro day really is a test, I don't think it should have much weight on the grading scale when formulating their final grade for the "spring semester."


                    Originally posted by BrokenWing
                    The only thing Bradford's pro-day told me is that he was healthy. I don't want to go down the road of saying no one thought he wasn't, because the biggest concern about him that I heard for weeks at a time was that his shoulder was messed up.
                    You're likely right in that some people were concerned about the status of his shoulder. But as I touched on above, I think that's why he had the surgery, so whether or not he'd recover and be healthy again really wasn't that significant of an issue.

                    I think the bigger and more legitimate concern as it relates to Bradford's shoulder injury is whether it tells us anything about his toughness and durability in preparation for the next level. That's a concern that will only be answered when Bradford takes the field and takes his hits, not at his pro day.



                    EDIT

                    Just to clarify, I'm not saying there's absolutely nothing to learn or gain from a pro day. For instance, it can help you confirm what you've seen on film and the evaluation you've made based on that film.

                    However, I just think the pro day workout is a relatively small part of the evaluation process, because by their very nature, they favor the prospect. If you go into the process with that mindset, then you're probably fine.

                    But when someone has a great pro day and the hype machine begins, I think you have to be careful. If you've watched a guy and have an informed opinion about him, but just aren't sure, then I wouldn't recommend using the pro day as the determining factor. It's infinitely harder to have sustained success at the NFL level than it is to put on a brilliant pro day.
                    Last edited by Nick; -04-08-2010, 12:25 PM.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

                      I think a pro day's main point is to simply reaffirm things already known about the prospect. That and to see if he is capable of making all the throws. Bradford's arm strength was in question. He goes out and throws 50 yarders down the field with zip and hitting a receiver in stride. Arm strength question goes away. How can you tell me that hasn't changed a guy's position at all? We already had the accuracy and intangibles to go off of but the arm strength was in question, he came out and delivered. Regardless of if the passes were scripted you can't fake a 50 yard pass on a rope and it shows that you CAN do it. If your a Jarret Brown however it will not improve your draft stock because of your tape and we have seen what he does in game situations. But if your Bradford and have everything else to back you up, a confirmation on your arm strength capabilities and throwing motion is always nice and simply puts a check mark by his name, reaffirming what you already thought.

                      Devaney said as much after Bradford's workout with his sarcasm about how good Bradford's workout was. Don't feel like searching for the exact words but he basically said we knew he could pass, we just wanted to seem him throw in person to confirm what we suspected about the guy.

                      In general, I agree a pro day should be a small part of evaluations and should only be used to confirm what is already known.

                      Though i suspect Bradford will shine again, Im looking forward to his private workout with the Rams. They will look to take him out of his comfort zone and throw some variables at him.
                      Last edited by Guest; -04-08-2010, 01:11 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

                        IMHO the pro day is to check out the recovery of an injured player. I would think watching films of past college games would weigh alot more in the ratings process. Also interviewing the individual and trying to get a handle on his football intelligence and personality would be big in my book. So yes, I agree the pro day stuff is over hyped.
                        sigpic :ram::helmet:

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                        • #13
                          Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

                          I'd agree that fans need to be a little careful about assuming that DeSpags' assessment-which is the only one that matters in the end- is based on the same criteria (or, perhaps more accurately, weighted the same) as that of the media pundits .

                          Devaney may have described Sam's pro day as a "final test' but he also said it was "just a piece" of the puzzle. And he has always taken the position that workouts, whether they be at The Combine or a pro day, are not nearly as important as assessing game tape and character issues such as passion/commitment to the game, work ethic,etc.

                          The only truly significant positive I can infer from Bradford's surgery & full recovery as demonstrated at his public workout is that the guy does have a great commitment and work ethic.

                          I don't even really believe that the mistakes made by The Whiners and Crazy Al's crew were due to being dazzled by the respective players' pro day dog n' pony show. I think if you want to say the Whiner & Raider decision makers failed-a dodgy assumption in itself so early in Smith & J-Mac's career-it was in accurately assessing the intangibles, not the empirical/physical stuff on controlled display at a pro day. And not just regarding the players themselves but the state of their respective teams overall & their coaching staff's ability to get the best out of these guys.

                          It remains to be seen whether Sam's aggressive & risky approach to allaying fears about his shoulder are the equivalent of a student cramming for a final & fooling the assessors into believing his ability for the long term to be greater than it is or a good student raising his overall competence in a subject by eliminating weaknesses , thus preparing him to move to the next level on a solid foundation.

                          I agree that recovering well from an injury doesn't mean you are durable but it does speak to the young man's work ethic that he came back on schedule & managed to beef up in the process which is pretty much all he could do to increase his durability or allay fears about the lack of it. What was he supposed to do? Invite Suh to sack him repeatedly at his pro day?

                          I share Nick's concern about his relative lack of experience in a pro style offense-it still flabbergasts me that with all the poring over stat minutiae in college football that no one, to my knowledge, can say how many snaps this guy took under center & how successful he was when he did. But it is surely only one of many things about the transition from college to the NFL that challenges all rookies. I think it's a gross over-simplification to say that Alex Smith's experience as a college QB is THE reason he has struggled in the NFL. I'm sure it is an issue for DeSpags but the obvious counter-argument is that there is a huge leap from high school to major program college ball as well & Bradford made that transition pretty well with the support of good coaching and quality teammates. So to me the question is as much one of whether Spagnuolo's coaching staff and the Rams offense are ready for a raw QB as vice-versa. It's the main reason why, if I'm totally honest, that I'd be relieved if they took Clausen because, although his ceiling may not be as high, his NFL-readiness is one less unknown on a team/staff full of them.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

                            Originally posted by Nick
                            So because of a great pro day, nothing that happened in 2009 should have an effect on his current draft grade?
                            What I mean is that if he had come out last off-season, he might have been the first quarterback taken based on his 2008 production. His draft value wavered after spending most of the season rehabbing an injury. The main thing that the pro day seems to have accomplished was to allay fears about that injury. Thus, I would characterize the buzz around Bradford as a resurgence rather than a new development out of the pro day.

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                            • #15
                              Re: Two Reasons Not to Go Crazy Over Pro Days

                              Sorry for not being able to quote; I'm responding from my phone @ work.


                              Bralidore – As I’ve said before, I was not able to watch the live pro day video. But the reports I’ve read indicated that Bradford’s arm was good enough to make all the throws, but not elite. That’s essentially what the evaluation of his arm was from his tape, so confirming what’s expected isn’t going to change a guy’s draft position IMO. Going into a pro day, seeing a great performance, and then changing a guy’s position or evaluation just based off that is exactly what I’m advocating against.*


                              Laram – Good points. I agree that watching previous games is more meaningful and telling about how* a guy is going to perform in a game environment than a scripted pro day workout. You bring up a good point about the interview process as well; that’s another benefit that I didn’t include.*


                              Azul – Good points. I seem to remember Devaney saying at one point in time much earlier in the year that the Rams weren’t going to significantly alter their board based on what happens at the combine. If I’m remembering that correctly, then I can’t imagine they’re going to significantly alter their board or their evaluation based on a scripted and rehearsed pro day workout either. The game tape, interviews, and medical reports are all likely much bigger parts of the evaluation, as they should be. But it seems like the media and some fans have really made the pro day a deciding factor. The reaction seems to be, “Bradford put on a remarkable pro day, now I’m convinced he’s worth the pick.” But as I tried to demonstrate with the past articles, there’s a danger in using that pro day as your deciding factor rather than just a small part of the process.*


                              Golden – Thanks for clearing that up. I see what you mean now. There was a chance that Bradford could have been the first QB selected last year, that’s true. But I think last year, we were looking at a weaker class at the top. This is a different class, with different prospects, and Bradford has another year under his belt that, at least in my opinion, makes his durability at the NFL level more of a concern. It’s fine that he’s healthy now, but I think the bigger question is can he hold up to the punishment at the next level. Unfortunately, that’s a question that’s gone unanswered through this whole process and will remain a question until he gets on the field and either proves it right or wrong.

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