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A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

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  • A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

    Last year, as I suffered through the Rams many blowout losses, I usually felt like it was the ineptitude of the offense, far more so than the problems with the defense, that lead to the huge deficits.

    So, I decided to crunch some numbers to see if my observation was accurate. Here's what I found.

    In the 9 games last year that the Rams lost by 10 or more points, the Rams' defense held the opposition without an offensive TD for an average of 22:21. That means that, even in blowout losses, the Rams kept the other team out of the endzone for an average nearly one and one-half quarters.

    What this tells me is that the defense often failed because it wore down due to an offense that couldn't stay on the field, didn't score points, and gave the defense bad field position.

    All of this makes me wonder if the best way to fix the defense might be to improve the offense. If the Rams could add some real firepower to the offense, maybe the defense - even with the current players - would fare better occasionally playing with a lead.

    I'm not saying the defense wouldn't benefit from an influx of talent. But I think an argument can be made that the offense needs it more.

  • #2
    Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

    I agree with you. I know that on paper both sides of ball were terrible, but the offense was just plain pathetic. I remember at one point thinking (more than halfway into the season) that opponent's defenses were trailing our offense by only a few TDs.

    I think we need a DE to play opposite Long, but other than that I don't see a position on the defense that absolutely 100% has to be filled immediately.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

      There's also the stat that the defense surrendered the winning points in 9 of the 15 games by halftime.

      I'm not sure an offensive upgrade is going to bring much relief to the defense. Or is worth putting off to Day 3 any defensive acquisitions in a draft that should be loaded with future defensive starters early.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

        Originally posted by PeoriaRam View Post
        There's also the stat that the defense surrendered the winning points in 9 of the 15 games by halftime.

        I'm not sure an offensive upgrade is going to bring much relief to the defense. Or is worth putting off to Day 3 any defensive acquisitions in a draft that should be loaded with future defensive starters early.
        That stat is an argument for drafting offensive players. To put it differently, even if we shut out every single team we faced in the 2nd half of the game, we'd still have gone 6-9 because our offense can't move the ball. The winning points being scored early a game generally means it doesn't take many points to win - that's our O's fault, not our D's.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

          Originally posted by PeoriaRam View Post
          There's also the stat that the defense surrendered the winning points in 9 of the 15 games by halftime.
          As NW said, that stat further supports my argument.

          I'm not sure an offensive upgrade is going to bring much relief to the defense. Or is worth putting off to Day 3 any defensive acquisitions in a draft that should be loaded with future defensive starters early.
          The draft is very deep at RB and OT as well, and there should be some good options at WR in Round 2 if the Rams want to upgrade their receiving corps.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

            Originally posted by AvengerRam View Post
            As NW said, that stat further supports my argument.
            No, not really. If the offense becomes a slightly more credible threat, the other guys won't call off their offensive dogs after the break like they did this year. The result is still the same. We lose. Badly.

            Let's look at the example of the New Orleans game that the Pollyanna Brigade likes to cite to support their contention that the team could be good. If we have a slightly more credible offense, the Saints don't spend 60 minutes screwing around on the football field and instead blow us out of the water with their superior talent and our weak defense.

            The draft is very deep at RB and OT as well, and there should be some good options at WR in Round 2 if the Rams want to upgrade their receiving corps.
            Those aren't defensive positions. Unless you propose postponing OT and backup RB to Day 3, that doesn't really help us.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

              Originally posted by AvengerRam View Post
              Last year, as I suffered through the Rams many blowout losses, I usually felt like it was the ineptitude of the offense, far more so than the problems with the defense, that lead to the huge deficits.

              So, I decided to crunch some numbers to see if my observation was accurate. Here's what I found.

              In the 9 games last year that the Rams lost by 10 or more points, the Rams' defense held the opposition without an offensive TD for an average of 22:21. That means that, even in blowout losses, the Rams kept the other team out of the endzone for an average nearly one and one-half quarters.

              What this tells me is that the defense often failed because it wore down due to an offense that couldn't stay on the field, didn't score points, and gave the defense bad field position.

              All of this makes me wonder if the best way to fix the defense might be to improve the offense. If the Rams could add some real firepower to the offense, maybe the defense - even with the current players - would fare better occasionally playing with a lead.

              I'm not saying the defense wouldn't benefit from an influx of talent. But I think an argument can be made that the offense needs it more.
              This is what I have been saying the whole time.


              People use the argument "well it works vice-versa too."

              No it doesn't. Adding better players to our defense does nothing for the production of our offense. Maybe if this was a different team, then yes, that would be applicable, but considering our offense, there's no hope there.



              Our offense could barely get a consistent rhythm and groove. We would always go 3 and out. Improving our defense is not going to change our productivity. Directly adding better offensive players will.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

                Originally posted by RockinRam View Post
                This is what I have been saying the whole time.

                People use the argument "well it works vice-versa too."

                No it doesn't. Adding better players to our defense does nothing for the production of our offense. Maybe if this was a different team, then yes, that would be applicable, but considering our offense, there's no hope there.

                Our offense could barely get a consistent rhythm and groove. We would always go 3 and out. Improving our defense is not going to change our productivity. Directly adding better offensive players will.
                You know what's funny about all of the "Rams defense was out on the field all game getting run down" claims?

                We were only 20th in Total Time of Possession last season, with a per game average of 28:58. We were also 20th in total plays run. Perhaps the offense did a better job of holding onto the ball (and the defense did a worse job at stopping the opponent throughout) than we tend to think.

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                • #9
                  Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

                  Peoria, I doubt the Saints just went out there and deliberately did not score touchdowns to "screw around" with us. You don't field your starters and your best QB and risk injury by screwing around with another team. We just had a good game and had a lot of things come together, it just wasn't enough. That was like our highest scoring game and we scroed naught but 23 or so. That's on the offense. Holding the league's highest scoring offense to 28 is pretty good considering the cirumstances.

                  Lets just say we need a whole lot and be done. That being said, I'm looking for more offense than defense in this draft depending however, on who falls where.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

                    Originally posted by PeoriaRam View Post
                    You know what's funny about all of the "Rams defense was out on the field all game getting run down" claims?

                    We were only 20th in Total Time of Possession last season, with a per game average of 28:58. We were also 20th in total plays run. Perhaps the offense did a better job of holding onto the ball (and the defense did a worse job at stopping the opponent throughout) than we tend to think.
                    First of all, a primary reason why the Rams were even that high in time of possession is that they were a running team (running plays tend to wind down the clock more than passing plays, nearly half of which end in clock stoppage).

                    More importantly, its not a question of time of possession, its a question of having a team that virtually never played with a lead because the offense didn't score.

                    When a team gets a lead, it impacts the the way the other team plays on offense, which is a huge help to the defense. For example, if the Rams could have scored earlier and more often, the defense could have geared toward stopping the pass (as teams tend to pass more when they are behind).

                    If you look at all the stats, you'll see that, despite being 20th in plays run, the Rams were near the bottom in both total yards (29th) and points (32nd). So the Rams' offense didn't help the defense with field position or with keeping the score close. As a result, the defense had to face short fields in games that were either scoreless, or in which the Rams were behind.
                    Last edited by AvengerRam_old; -04-16-2010, 04:20 PM.

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                    • #11
                      Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

                      Originally posted by PeoriaRam View Post
                      No, not really. If the offense becomes a slightly more credible threat, the other guys won't call off their offensive dogs after the break like they did this year. The result is still the same. We lose. Badly.
                      Defenses do better with rest and less time on the field. They gave up a lot of big plays and certainly weren't dominant, but if our offense could have put the other team beyond the 50 yard line and done more than 3 and out we would have seen a much better defense. Good offenses do help produce better defenses. You can only win with no offense if your defense is amazing. Not just ok, not better than average, amazing. The Bears went to the Superbowl with an amazing D and no offense. What happened when the D took a hit? The Bears went downhill in a hurry. Our defense has more playmakers than our offense, and I think they would benefit if the team actually scored points or not put the opposing team in a field position where they could kick a field goal from the first snap.

                      I haven't mined the data, but I would wager you'd find that when teams improved significantly on offense, their defense improved as well. The only one I looked up was the Dolphins, the year they went 1-15 they scored 267 points and gave up 437. The next year at 11-5 they scored 345 and gave up 317. Moreover, 6 of the 7 leading tacklers on the team had been there the year prior when they were abysmal, and the youngest was 25, these weren't rookies added to the mix. It's just one example, but I'm sure the Dolphins didn't just suddenly inject themselves with talent on defense that they were missing the year prior. It was there. I'm sure there are plenty of other factors to consider as well, but it's just some food for thought.
                      Last edited by berg8309; -04-16-2010, 04:56 PM.

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                      • #12
                        Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

                        You can also take in account the Spags affect. I have more faith in Spags and his defense performing with players who are not elite all over the board than I am with Shurmur and crew with the offense.

                        I like the defensive pieces. I think on defense we have serviceable starters across the board. I'm not saying there aren't spots that need upgrades, but I could see guys like James Hall, Robbins, and Diggs starting until a younger guy is ready to step in. I don't see that as much on the offensive side of the ball. IMO the defensive core of young players is better than the offensive core when you look at Long, Ryan, Lauranatis, Bartell, Butler, and OJ if he comes back. Guys like Fletcher, Scott, and Vobora could easily join that core group of players IMO. In comparison the offensive core S-Jax, Brown, Bell, Smith. We have young receivers, but i'm not ready to make them core players, maybe Avery based on production, but that may be a reach.

                        Also if your picking Bradford making him your franchise guy, are you going to stick him with the talent we have now. No legitimate backup RB or starting TE to speak of. The receivers are young I don't think any of them have tapped out potential wise. We could feasibly remain patient hoping one of those guys becomes a number 1 guy, but if we see the opportunity to get a number 1 I don't think we should hesitate. I like the line more than most. There will be healthy competition at RG and RT, Brown, Bell, and Smith look good to me.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

                          Well I totally agree with AV on this one, our offense was atrocious last year.

                          To give my little tangent about why we need to draft Bradford, I was telling my mom about the NFL draft next week, and you have to understand she knowsa little about the pro game, and nothing about the college game, and she said "Oh are we still looking at the guy from Bradford?"

                          I said no, his name is Sam Bradford, and it's between him or Ndamukong Suh. Later on in the convo after telling her about the two prospects, I told her that the Rams cut Bulger and that our backup signed with the Raiders. I told her that leave us with a career backup QB and a guy who was a rookie last year. Her response was perfect, "Oh, so we HAVE to take the quarterback."

                          I think if you step back and see that we HAVE NO QB, you notice that it is really simple, and the choice becomes really, really easy for Mr. Devaney. We HAVE to grab our quarterback

                          Also, how do you sign up for membership in the Pollyanna Brigade Peoria keeps talking about? Can I cast my nomination for President if they don't have one yet?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

                            Originally posted by PeoriaRam View Post
                            No, not really. If the offense becomes a slightly more credible threat, the other guys won't call off their offensive dogs after the break like they did this year. The result is still the same. We lose. Badly.
                            Why does your logic not apply to the defense as well? What's wrong with me saying:

                            "If the defense becomes slightly better, the other guys won't call off their offensive dogs after the break like they did this year. The result is still the same. We lose. Badly."

                            The other team is not going to slow down unless they've built an insurmountable lead. If either our offense or our defense improves, we should be in the game until the end and so our opponents won't let off the gas. That's a good thing, though, right?

                            It seems like you want to say that improving our offense will only turn blow-outs into narrow losses but improving our defense will turn blow-out losses into wins. But why?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: A Stat That Suggests The Ram Should Draft Offensive Players

                              Originally posted by Nick_Weasel View Post

                              It seems like you want to say that improving our offense will only turn blow-outs into narrow losses but improving our defense will turn blow-out losses into wins. But why?
                              Because improving the defense brings them within range of even our toothless offense. And that's where the wins come.

                              One of the biggest, if often ignored lessons of the Martz Era: If you want to win, you need to be able to stop the other guy from scoring.

                              Comment

                              Related Topics

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                              • laram0
                                Defense vs. Offense
                                by laram0
                                The RAMS defense ranked 23rd overall last season and 28th in the points allowed category. For the season the RAMS scored 367 points while allowing 381 points that's a (-14) point differential. Out of the 12 teams that made the playoffs only the Seahawks (-6) and Giants (-7) had negative point differentials. There are alot of areas of concern on our Defense. DE, DT's, SLB, Safety and even cornerback has been brought up. It will probably take more than 1 year to upgrade all the areas of concern defensively.

                                So let's think outside the defensive box for a minute or two.

                                Our offense was ranked 4th passing and 17th rushing with an overall ranking of 6th. Considering the offense got off to a slow start last season and Marc Bulger was sacked 49 times.(Only 3 teams allowed more sacks) Also taking into consideration the COLTS won the Superbowl.

                                How many areas of concern are there on the offensive side of the ball? Imagine if Marc Bulger was sacked 1/2 of the 49 times from last season.
                                Could our offense be potent enough to overcome some of the defensive inefficiencies. I use the word "some" because I feel like the Rams will be able to address some of the issues on defense for 2007 but not all. Again, the offense could take us to the promise land (playoffs) thus allowing the team to plug the holes on defense intelligently without haste. The key question in my mind is how much tweaking needs to be done on the offense to makes us that potent. Should the RAMS focus on the offensive needs this off season 1st and foremost? Understanding that the defense will get the obvious attention it needs, just not all in one off season.

                                Imagine making the playoffs in 2007 knowing that there are still a few defense holes to fill for 2008. How would we look for 2009,2010 etc..
                                A long run of playoff appearances and possibly another SUPERBOWL or 2?
                                -02-15-2007, 12:09 PM
                              • bud4wiser
                                Additional defensive credits +++
                                by bud4wiser
                                There seems to be some mumbling once in a while by media personnel mentioning that the RAMS defense has improved.

                                It is obvious to me that the statistics, yardage, points allowed etc. reveal a remarkable turnaround. What seems to be ignored by the talking heads is:

                                The defense produced these results in the face of the "most turnovers allowed" stat

                                The defense produced these results in the face of "a pass-oriented offense that usually doesn't hold the ball that long"

                                The defense produced these results in the face of the "an inconsistent special teams play that often gave up field position"

                                If these points are not proof enough to the RAMS defensive character then add this: the RAMS defense produced these statistics in the face of repeated blow-outs where their team had already scored 30 or more points"

                                Hey, media-types, talking heads and the rest, why isn't this in the news......???
                                :ram:
                                -01-16-2002, 08:05 AM
                              • RamsInfiniti
                                Problems with Ram offense ...
                                by RamsInfiniti
                                Let's take a look at the Ram offense this year versus last:

                                2009

                                279.4 YPG - 29th
                                167.9 Passing YPG - 28th
                                111.5 Rushing YPG - 20th
                                10.9 PPG - 32nd
                                3rd Down Conversions -32.3 % 28th

                                2010
                                310.7 YPG - 22nd
                                198.3 Passing YPG - 21st
                                112.4 Rushing YPG - 12th
                                17.1 PPG - 27th
                                3rd Down Conversions - 41.1 % 7th

                                Biggest Problem? 29th in the league in redzone scoring. We lead the league in redzone penalties and false starts overall. Even a modest improvement and we'd be 3 PPG better ....

                                Note the drastic improvement in 3rd down conversion rate. This is likely a result of Bradford's ability to beat the blitz, which has been at a high rate ...
                                -10-26-2010, 09:30 AM
                              • RockinRam
                                20 Points Each Game...Just 20 Points...
                                by RockinRam
                                And we would be 6-1. Heck, we might even be 7-0 because confidence and mentality goes a long way.


                                20 points is the amount of points we have needed to score each week to win the game (I'm not including the abomination in Detroit).

                                Just 20 points!

                                Two touchdowns, two field goals.

                                It's really not that hard.


                                So, what does this mean. It means several things.


                                1. Our defense is keeping us in games, and even basically handing us a WIN.

                                2. Our offense cannot take full advantage of the opportunities our defense gives them.

                                3. The play-calling. Some very surprising conservative calls. No screens or "more exciting plays" after the half? Not taking advantage of our personnel.




                                It must be frustrating for the defense to see their hard work of fending off their opponents wittle away into wasted effort because the offense cannot finish off the game.

                                The defense has been playing solid this year, even with some missed opportunities and some missed tackling. For the most part, they are giving us VERY WINNABLE CHANCES every Sunday.



                                It's time for Pat Shurmur and Steve Spagnuolo to step it up, and show that they can make this team play good football for 4 quarters.

                                It's time for Sam Bradford to step it up even more, and show that he will be rookie of the year.

                                It's time for the receivers to step it up and prove that they will make this team next year.

                                It's time for the offensive line to step it up and give our rookie passer solid protection. It's time that they blow open holes for Jackson.

                                It's time for our tight ends to distinguish themselves due to a lackluster receiving corps.

                                It's time for Darby to step it up, and prove that he CAN be our #2 back.


                                20 points is all the defense is asking. It's time for this offense to step it up.
                                -10-25-2010, 03:53 PM
                              • AvengerRam_old
                                The 2007 Rams are loaded; Here's the trigger.
                                by AvengerRam_old
                                The 2007 Rams offense has as many weapons as any team in the league. You'd be hard pressed to find an offense that can boast a QB who is among the Top 5-7 (at least) in the NFL, a RB who is in the top 3-4, a #1 WR who is in the Top 5, a #2 WR who's a future HOF (and still able to produce), a #3 WR who could be a 1 or a 2 on many teams, a Top 10 TE, a back-up RB who could probably rush for 1,000 yards on many teams, and a Top 5 LT.

                                On the other side of the ball, its mostly question marks. Can a bunch of players in their first 3 years in the league come together and form an effective defense?

                                In my opinion, the two sides are more linked together than some might think.

                                Here's the key... the "trigger" to success, if you will:

                                FIRST QUARTER SCORING.

                                Here are some stats that might shock you a bit:
                                • The Rams averaged only 3.3 points in the first quarter last year (14.4% of their total points scored);
                                • The Rams' offense failed to score a first quarter TD in 13 out of their 16 games (Note: In 2 games, the defense scored a first quarter TD) last year;
                                • The Rams were shut out in the first quarter in 9 of 16 games last year.
                                There is little doubt that an offense that gets out of the gate quickly and scores first quarter TDs helps the defense immensely. First, the defense is not on the field as much if the offense is moving the ball. Second, by getting a lead, the offense forces the opposing team to change its strategy (typically, throwing the ball more) which plays into the defense's hands.

                                When you look at these stats, it makes sense that the Rams would put a premium on improving two non-defensive aspects of the game this offseason: (1) Red Zone productivity; and (2) special teams. Hopefully, these changes will translate to early TDs.

                                In the end, the best defense may very well be a good (first quarter) offense.
                                -08-07-2007, 08:49 AM
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