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Tipsheet: Manziel Draft Stock Dipping

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  • Tipsheet: Manziel Draft Stock Dipping

    Tipsheet: Manziel draft stock dipping

    14 hours ago • By Jeff Gordon [email protected]

    NFL Draft stocks soar and plummet long after college players quit playing games.

    Team executives, coaches and scouts start talking themselves into or out of drafting certain players. So far this year, the scuttlebutt has Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel taking a big hit.

    That is not ideal for the Rams, a team seeking to maximize the value of the second overall pick. Jeff Fisher, Les Snead and Co. want all the top prospects to trend up so that multiple teams bid on the No. 2 slot.

    The best possible scenario had Manziel going to his home state Texans with the first overall pick. But that seems increasingly unlikely to occur.

    Here are some of the early takes on “Johnny Football” and some of the high draft pick candidates:

    Kevin Seifert, “Russell Wilson's success is the worst thing that could have happened to the 2014 draft debate. Suddenly, no one thinks twice about projecting an exciting but undersized quarterback prospect as the No. 1 overall pick. Here is the problem: Johnny Manziel is no Russell Wilson, who proved off the charts in every way except height in 2012 -- and still lasted until the Seattle Seahawks drafted him in the third round. There seems little doubt that someone will make Manziel a first-round draft choice this spring, but the Houston Texans would be wrong to do it at No. 1 overall. The best parts of his college game will be less effective in the NFL, and there are at least four players in this draft -- including two quarterbacks -- who would make more sense at No. 1 . . . If the Texans want a fresh start at quarterback to begin the Bill O'Brien Era, which makes perfect sense, they would be better off with Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater. If they are concerned about Bridgewater's stature or 'upside,' O'Brien's background as a quarterback guru would justify the selection of Central Florida's Blake Bortles, who probably needs some development time. Should O'Brien desire a lower-round quarterback to develop, Auburn left tackle Greg Robinson is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. And if the Texans are willing to take a risk in exchange for perhaps the biggest reward of the 2014 draft, South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney would look awfully imposing on the same defense with All-Pro defensive lineman J.J. Watt.”

    Peter King, “Last week, former quarterbacks and current tape students Ron Jaworski and Phil Simms both came out as skeptics of Johnny Manziel. I liked it. If you’re an analyst and don’t voice your real opinion, what good are you? And there is much work to be done by the teams in the top eight that need a quarterback (Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, Minnesota and maybe Tampa Bay). Last week, Manziel’s quarterback coach, George Whitfield, said they are focusing on Manziel’s throwing and decision-making from the pocket as they prepare for his pro-day workout on March 27. Manziel was such a wild stallion as a quarterback at Texas A&M, often leaving the pocket early instead of staying home. But it is folly to say he hasn’t played well at times in the pocket; some of his best plays—though maybe not always with good footwork—came with traffic around him, and Manziel finding the receiver he needed to find . . . My guess, two-plus months out from the draft: Jacksonville, at number three, or Oakland, at five, make the most sense. If I’m Jags offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch, who is one of the most imaginative young coaches in the game, I’d love to get my hands on Manziel.”

    Brent Sobleski, USA Today: “LSU essentially dared Manziel to beat them from the pocket as a passer. If Manziel’s top target wasn’t available, it was clear he had trouble getting to his next option. And the quarterback only averaged 2.9 yards per carry in the two contests. A week after LSU beat Texas A&M 34-10, Missouri duplicated the game plan. They slow-played their pass rush, which didn’t allow Manziel to take off from the pocket. They took Evans out of the offense by rolling coverage to his side, and Manziel struggled during the 28-21 loss. This is the game plan NFL teams will utilize until Manziel proves he can beat it. He has yet to show he can. It’s why those in the NFL are curious to see how he’s improved as a pure pocket passer.”

    Dan Parr, “The conventional wisdom has been that Manziel, Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater are the top prospects at quarterback. That might no longer reflect the opinion of a majority of NFL teams, though. (Derek) Carr has been ranked among the second tier of signal-callers and is often projected to be drafted late in the first round or early in the second, but there was a report last week that no fewer than 17 NFL quarterback coaches polled at the combine favored Carr over Manziel. With more than two months to go before the draft, there's enough time for the conventional wisdom to be altered again and plenty of smokescreens will send draft forecasters scrambling for answers. At this point, though, it certainly appears that Carr has the momentum, and it might be coming at Manziel's expense since the reports of Carr's ascent don't include indications that he has surpassed Brigewater and Bortles on draft boards. Carr's reported rise doesn't mean Manziel is in deep decline -- five of the teams that will draft in the top eight have a need at quarterback -- so it still seems unlikely that the Cowboys will be rewarded for their Manziel free-fall preparation.”

  • #2
    Re: Tipsheet: Manziel Draft Stock Dipping

    Interesting. Here I was thinking that after John Gruden's clear endorsement, Juanito 'Fútbol' Manziel would pretty much remain a top 5 pick, firmly in the radar screen of two, three teams.

    But then it is also true how these prospects' stock, in general, may fluctuate for a few more weeks.


    • #3
      Re: Tipsheet: Manziel Draft Stock Dipping

      Hurts the trade options, but not surprised. Seifert is the first to mention Robinson and Houston in the same breath. I think though he meant that Houston could safely take Robinson one. If they did though, wow, what would happen then??


      • #4
        Re: Tipsheet: Manziel Draft Stock Dipping

        Originally posted by turbofargo View Post
        Hurts the trade options, but not surprised. Seifert is the first to mention Robinson and Houston in the same breath. I think though he meant that Houston could safely take Robinson one. If they did though, wow, what would happen then??
        Then the Rams get great bargaining position, as any team that wants to draft their choice of QB or Clowney would surely want to get ahead of Jacksonville, who would take Clowney or a QB at #3

        I would imagine trade offers would come in from Atlanta, and maybe teams like Minnesota or Tampa Bay

        The one team that probably wouldn't trade in that situation is Cleveland. Unless they only really liked one of the top 3 QBs, they could afford to sit back and pick up whoever fell to them


        • #5
          Re: Tipsheet: Manziel Draft Stock Dipping

          I, for one, am not concerned about Johnny Football's stock dropping, and actually I feel encouraged by it. Why?

          Supply and demand, my friends. What this is, is top supply becoming more scarce(down to Bridgewater and Bortles), which will drive up the market for people looking for sure things. I'd love to see people putting Manziel at a 2nd round grade and below Carr. Anyone think that Carr's going to get attention at #5?

          My dream is that Bridgewater goes to Houston and then we can auction off the #2 spot because there's only our pick between Bortles and Clowney and Jacksonville happy to take the sloppy seconds(well, thirds, I guess). So yeah, I can only hope that Carr and Johnny drop off the face of the planet when it comes to draft grades.
          I believe!:ram:


          • #6
            Re: Tipsheet: Manziel Draft Stock Dipping

            Exactly. If teams were thinking the top 3 are all equal, nobody is trading up to get one.
            If Cleveland and Jacksonville both want QBs and both think the top 3 are equal, what incentive does Cleveland have to trade up? Heck, with 2 QBs as obvious outliers on top, Jacksonville must consider trading up to guarantee themselves one.


            Related Topics


            • Barry Waller
              Manziel Pro Day Makes For Interesting Scenario
              by Barry Waller
              You can bet that Houston GM Rick Smith, the guy whose head will really be on the line after this draft has played out and the team hits the field, wishes that Johnny Manziel was from South Dakota, or Maine, or anywhere but Texas.

              Winning a Heisman as a Freshman, then following it up with another great season before turning pro, would get fans pumped about a guy from Alaska, but one born and bred right in your own backyard? It's an absolute dream situation for a team's PR department, as well as one for a new coaching staff inheriting a solid defense, and a talented offense missing only a great quarterback to be a force again.

              Seems like a slam dunk for Smith, but, perhaps knowing the circus invited by drafting "Johnny Football ", a guy making commercials with Lebron James already has Smith scared enough to risk the wrath of their fans, hardly a group the team wants to alienate, and his job, by betting Manziel won't be a star.

              So word has it, maybe because Jadeveon Clowney is a poor fit in their scheme, but is also the one player it seems teams are willing to trade a valuable pick or two to acquire, that Houston is shopping the pick.

              That signals that Smith knows that Manziel really has to be a Texan, but with a pick more palatable to the coach and GM, who get another player in round two to fill need, in a very deep draft where their other needs lie.

              Other QB needy clubs, like the Browns, can convince their fans that going a different way, with , say Sammie Watkins, then taking Teddy Bridgewater at 26 might be the best way. And Manziel is not from Ohio State.

              Oakland, picking fifth, could use a QB, but Manziel doesn't fit there, and they need aLT too badly to pass on Robinson or Matthews.

              So Houston may think that they can drop to sixth, as the Rams would be doing if Clowney fell to second over all, and then take Manziel, and look like geniusses that hedged the bet with a nice pick.

              However, there just happens to be a team picking third who has an owner saying that they will take a quarterback. The Jaguars just cut the face of their franchise Maurice Jones Drew, and are dire need of someone to bring some excitement to a moribund franchise.

              You won't get that done playing it safe, as the Jaguars did last season with their first pick, perhaps burned a bit by the failure of Justin Blackmon to be worth the trade and pick to acquire him in Shad Kahn's first draft as owner.

              More than any other team, Jacksonville needs a drawing card on offense, and they have a coach who just watched a short, playmaking QB, take the team he coached on defense all the way in just his second season.

              Jaguars fans remember another short, speedy QB, Mark Brunell, who still remains the franchise's best passer ever.

              I doubt Shad Khan, no towering man to be sure, holds lack of height against anyone who can make...
              -03-30-2014, 01:18 PM
            • turbofargo
              Merril Hoge not liking Johnny Manziel
              by turbofargo
              Just saw something over on espn where Merril Hoge broke down some play of Johnny Manziel. Had some not nice words about the kid, in fact said there could be serious bust potential. He made some good points showing a couple "tape" plays.

              If teams tend to agree is that is going to effect chances to trade, more or less. If Houston takes Bortles, teams are weary of a bad pro day by Bridgewater, and watch clips like the one mentioned that teams might scramble to get the other players, Watkins, the OTs, Mack and Clowney.

              Interesting watch, I know we can't post links, but the clip is from sportscenter. Its the second clip right now if you go to the vid section.
              -03-19-2014, 03:51 PM
            • Nick
              Johnny Manziel cements his status as franchise quarterback
              by Nick
              Johnny Manziel cements his status as franchise quarterback
              By Bucky Brooks
              NFL Media analyst
              Published: Jan. 1, 2014 at 12:20 a.m.
              Updated: Jan. 1, 2014 at 03:20 a.m.

              NFL evaluators pay close attention to how well elite prospects perform in bowl games. Executives believe these contests rival the intensity and competitiveness of NFL games, while also creating a big-game atmosphere that allows observers to witness a player under pressure.

              While Johnny Manziel has played in a ton of big games in his brief career, I thought it was important to see how well the former Heisman Trophy winner performed in the Chick fil-A Bowl after finishing the regular season with a pair of lackluster games. With a national television audience paying close attention to his every move, Manziel put on an epic performance that cemented his status as one of the top quarterbacks in college football, and a future franchise player at the next level. Watching it up close and personal, here are my thoughts on Manziel's game and it projects in the NFL:

              Johnny Football took the college football world by storm a season ago by showcasing a sandlot game built on improvisational playmaking. Part of his success stemmed from his exceptional speed, quickness and movement skills. Few quarterbacks in the college game can rival his elusiveness in tight quarters, making him a rare commodity at the position.

              Watching Manziel work his magic on the Georgia Dome turf against the Blue Devils, I was blown away by his sudden acceleration and burst. He is quicker than a hiccup in space, with a knack for making defenders miss in the hole. Although he has scaled back on his impromptu runs this season, it's nearly impossible to contain Manziel when he elects to use his legs as a primary weapon.

              I must express some concern about his durability based on his diminutive stature and willingness to seek out contact, but I don't believe it will be a major issue because of his combination of instincts and athleticism. He has a knack for avoiding the big shot, which is why he is such a threat when he gets on the perimeter.

              Arm talent
              Questions about Manziel's arm strength and range dominated the discussion in the NFL scouting community during the offseason. Evaluators wondered if Manziel could make big-boy throws from the pocket, particularly the deep out from the opposite hash and the go-route down the boundary.

              Watching Manziel pick apart the Blue Devils, there's no doubt in my mind that he can make every throw in the book. He attacked every area of the field with a variety of fastballs and rainbows to open receivers. Additionally, Manziel showed the ability to squeeze the ball into tight windows between the hashes. While those traits are expected of a franchise quarterback, I believe Manziel's unique ability to deliver accurate throws from various throwing platforms separates...
              -01-01-2014, 07:33 AM
            • Rambos
              Johnny Manziel dares Texans to pass on him
              by Rambos
              By Chase Goodbread

              The Houston Texans picking Johnny Manziel No. 1 overall in the NFL draft would be a great decision, Manziel said, but not picking him would be one the club would live to regret. Especially if the quarterback-starved Jacksonville Jaguars grabbed him with the No. 3 overall pick, and Houston had to play against him as a division opponent.

              "It would be the worst decision they've (the Texans) ever made," he told The Houston Chronicle of the possibility. "I'd be in the same division playing against them twice a year. Sorry, but you just turned that chip on my shoulder from a Frito into a Dorito."

              Double-dares aside, however, Manziel made it clear that playing for the homestate Texans is what he wants most.
              Johnny Chronicles

              "I want them to say absolutely, without a doubt, with 100 percent certainty, that I'm who they want," Manziel said. "I want everybody from the janitor at Reliant Stadium to the front office executive assistant all the way up to (owner) Bob McNair to say, 'This kid is 100 percent, can't miss. This is who we want being the face of our program. We want the Texas kid staying in Texas and leading the Texans.'"

              Manziel played his high school ball in Kerrville, Texas. From a pure distance standpoint, it would be a stretch to suggest that Manziel is a hometown Houston kid. But Texans tend to be a close-knit group. State pride is no small matter, and not much summons Texas state pride as much as its quarterbacks. From Drew Brees to Matthew Stafford, from Robert Griffin III to Andrew Luck, they are everywhere.

              But they don't all play in Texas.

              "I'm a Texas kid. The state means a lot to me," he said.

              Your move, Houston.

              Candidly Manziel

              In his first public comments since announcing he would leave Texas A&M two years early for an NFL career, Manziel had plenty more to say on a variety of topics, including questions about his maturity, his rookie-year aspirations and more:

              » Manziel will be asked plenty about his maturity, reputation as a partier, and off-field decisions by NFL clubs at the NFL Scouting Combine next week. He'll be well-coached for all of it, but was candid about those subjects with reporters who visited his San Diego training site as well.

              "I was a kid who made some goofball decisions. That's been part of my journey. Maybe it's part of the whole Johnny Football deal that I'm trying to get away from," Manziel said. "I'm trying to show people I've grown up, and I've learned from my experiences. I feel like you're a stupid person if you continue to make the same wrong decisions. I don't want to hear, 'Oh, anybody in his situation would have been doing the same thing.' I'm 100 percent responsible for my actions."

              » The era of NFL rookie quarterbacks apprenticing...
              -02-14-2014, 02:16 PM
            • Rambos
              Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel enters NFL draft
              by Rambos
              USA TODAY Sports

              In his two years at Texas A&M, Johnny Manziel accounted for 93 total touchdowns. Now he'll see how the Johnny Football Show will play at the next level.

              Manziel wrote a thank you letter to Texas A&M fans for his two years in College Station while announcing his intent to enter the 2014 NFL draft Wednesday. "The decision was not an easy one," he wrote.

     and ESPN first reported Manziel's decision to enter the draft.

              In 2013, Manziel completed 69.9% of his passes for 4,114 yards and 37 touchdowns. He also rushed for 759 yards and nine touchdowns. In 2012, his Heisman year, Manziel rushed for 1,410 yards and 21 touchdowns.

              His career totals: 7,820 yards passing and 63 touchdowns with 22 interceptions, and 2,169 yards rushing and 30 touchdowns.

              The Aggies finished the 2013 season 9-4.

              "The sky's the limit for Johnny Manziel," said Florida State QB Jameis Winston, who became the second freshman, after Manziel, to win the Heisman. "He's an amazing person and amazing player on the field.

              "The things he does with the ball in his hands, people always have faith in Johnny. His teammates are going to love him, because they know anything is possible with Johhny Football."

              Most of the questions about Manziel's passing ability were answered this season, leaving only the bigger-picture arguments about his final legacy and where his two-year run puts him in the pantheon of great college quarterbacks.

              "It's pretty incredible when you look at his two-year totals and numbers he's been able to put together," Duke coach David Cutcliffe said in the days before losing to Manziel and the Aggies in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. "The excitement meter in the way he plays takes it through the roof. To become somewhat legendary in one year puts you right at the top of the ladder in the historical sense of what an individual player has meant to college football."

              Manziel also will leave, as Cutcliffe noted, with the distinction of being the first pop culture phenomenon from college football in the era of social media, making him the most talked-about, Tweeted-about, Instragrammed player the sport has ever seen.
              2013-12-29 johnny manziel presser

              At the intersection of fame and immaturity, Manziel admittedly struggled at times to reconcile living life on his terms with the

              responsibility of being a Heisman Trophy winner and legitimate celebrity.

              When he was accused in August of receiving payments from memorabilia brokers to sign autographs — which led to an NCAA investigation and ultimately a suspension for the first half of Texas A&M's opener, it seemed the NCAA's amateurism rules would be as big a factor as anything in driving him to the NFL after this season....
              -01-08-2014, 06:51 PM