With all of the talk going on between Ndamukong Suh, Jimmy Clausen and Sam Bradford being No. 1 overall selections this year, I felt it was important to look at the hit and bust rates of both the quarterback and defensive tackle positions to see if the former was actually the riskier pick.
Below is a chart of all of the quarterbacks and defensive tackles selected in the top 16* of each NFL Draft from 1993** to 2009.
* Why top 16? I wanted to cover the top half of the first round, and anything below that gets distorted. For example, if a No. 20 overall quarterback starts and plays well (but not on a Pro Bowl level) for only 4-5 seasons, is he considered a bust? A top-16 quarterback would be, but a guy who is taken No. 20 isn't expected to be a perennial Pro Bowler or anything.
** Why 1993? I didn't want to go beyond 15 years because scouting has really changed since then. But then again, I also wanted to include Dan Wilkinson (the last defensive tackle to be drafted No. 1 overall). I also wanted to add in some quarterback busts like Rick Mirer and Heath Schuler. Overall, I thought going back to 1993 would give us an accurate and large enough sample size to work with.
Quarterback
Draft No.
Year
Hit, OK or Bust
Comment
Matthew Stafford
1
2009
TBA
JaMarcus Russell
1
2007
Bust
If he eats his way out of the league, perhaps he can do ads for Skittles.
Alex Smith
1
2006
Bust
He's playing OK now, but he's a bust for a No. 1 overall pick.
Eli Manning
1
2004
Hit
Some will argue how great Eli Manning is, but he's a top-12 NFL quarterback and a Super Bowl winner. The Giants paid him a ton of money for a reason.
Carson Palmer
1
2003
Hit
David Carr
1
2002
Bust
Michael Vick
1
2001
Hit
Was a Pro Bowler; sold tons of tickets; reached NFC Championship; exciting player before drowning dogs.
Tim Couch
1
1999
Bust
Peyton Manning
1
1998
Hit
Drew Bledsoe
1
1993
Hit
Donovan McNabb
2
1999
Hit
Ryan Leaf
2
1998
Bust
Rick Mirer
2
1993
Bust
Matt Ryan
3
2008
Hit
Vince Young
3
2006
OK
Certainly not a bust, but not great or anything.
Joey Harrington
3
2002
Bust
Akili Smith
3
1999
Bust
Steve McNair
3
1995
Hit
Heath Shuler
3
1994
Bust
Philip Rivers
4
2004
Hit
...
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