Building upon Mr. Balzer's comments found in the thread entitled: "Balzer comments from Sirius Radio"
I believe that for many years, experts, analysts, and gits, have said that if Running Back (RB) so and so gets XX amount of carries per game, then that team wins YY% of the time, with YY usually being about 80. The implication, or outright conclusion, behind this is that in order for the team to win, their RB must carry the ball so many times.
Aristotle weeps.
I've always felt a bit troubled by such statements, as if its an ace magic formulae for winning football games. Codswallop! Not bloody likely I say! It's another example of easy to swallow inferior analysis.
Some things Balzer said that are dead on:
"As I've noted before, if you're getting stuffed for losses on first down, it's tough to keep running."
and
"These are typical stats that don't look at the big picture. Why did Jackson get the ball so much in the fourth quarter? Because the Rams had the lead."
and
"In most of the games the Rams lost, they fell behind, and often by a lot, which meant they weren't going to run the ball. In those games, Jackson was often stuffed consistently and that led to more passing. When he would get minus 2 yards on first down, passes followed. When he was stopped on 3rd and 1, that turned the ball over to the defense, which kept the chains from moving and fewer offensive plays."
The point should be obvious: a running game that is ineffective against a particular team should not be used indefinately, especially when they're behind. Isn't it possible that teams with exquisite passing games gain early leads and then run the ball to eat up the clock? But, the dim only look at the stats, and see that the team won, and did a lot of running... therefore run the ball to win is the key!
Bollocks I say to the formulae of amt. of runs per game equates to wins. Its an uncorrelated relationship.
If you want to win football games, do what you need to do, to score the most points (duh). That includes runs, or passes, or both, that work. If a D is stacking the line with 8 men 75% of the time the coach better be calling passes.
-06-15-2006, 07:59 AM
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