how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

[general counsel]

For all the bulger bashing, i ask the following question. Assume the same roster (including of course the same injuries and offensive line play). How many games would the rams have won with peyton manning at qb? In part, you have to speculate whether manning would stay healthy getting clobbered game after game, play after play (given that he doesnt have much more mobility than bulger if any).

More than one game? I think so. More than 4. I highly doubt it. I highly doubt he would have made it through the season in one piece.

Ramming speed to all

general counsel

[tomahawk247]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

i reckon he probably would have won some of those close games we had last year, like against Washington and Jacksonville, but i cant see him having won too many more than that

[RebelYell]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

Statistics show that sacks are as much a product of the QB as it is the offensive line. Ever notice that no matter who is on our offensive line it continually needs to be rebuilt? Don't kid yourself, comparing Bulger to Peyton isn't going to make Bulger appear better.

[Nick_Weasel]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

Even 4 wins is 3 more than we won, and 3 games is a lot for a single position to change. I can't think of a single non-QB player that we could have dropped onto our roster last year who could have single-handedly won 3 games last year.

Also, I understand the argument that Bulger shouldn't take all the blame for our miserable performance over the past 3 years. But by that same logic, he shouldn't be given all the praise for the seasons where he had Holt, Bruce, Faulk/Jackson, and Orlando Pace on the field with him. Sure he was a pro-bowler when he had up to 4 HOF players on the field with him, but your supporting cast affects your performance in both directions.

What I've seen from Bulger, and I admit this is just my opinion and I could be wrong, is that when his supporting cast is excellent, he can look excellent. And when his supporting cast is terrible, he can look terrible. To me, that smacks of a pretty average QB. I think in his best days he was top 10-top 15 QB, and several years and hundreds of hits later he's a lower-grade starter/good back-up QB.

[general counsel]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

Rebel, what statistics show that sacks are as much a product of the qb as the offensive line. I agree completely that the qb is partially a function of sacks (ie less mobile qb's will get sacked less), but i dont think its close to the same level of responsibility.

My point was that manning is the absolute best. Three games is a lot of games. I never said bulger was second best. Many on this board have continually posted saying that bulger stinks. All i am saying is that even with the best qb, the rams would still stink.

I think bulger is much better than average and at his peak was about a top 10 guy. Sure he had great weapons, but he never played with a premier offensive line. His best years were at the tail end of the faulk/bruce era and before the prime of the jackson era. He was hyper accurate and very good under pressure. I think the completion percentages alone show that he was better than average.

ramming speed to all

general counsel

[RebelYell]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

A Long Look at Jake Locker, Pro Quarterback, After a Brief Look at Jake Locker, Amateur Quarterback
by John Morgan on Oct 26, 2009 2:57 PM PDT 69 comments

I watched Jake Locker with some interest this Saturday. Locker has surpassed Taylor Mays as the local athlete Seahawks fans most desire. This is not a comprehensive review of Locker. I tuned out after the game became lopsided. Like Rodney Hudson, this is just my early impressions and opinions.

Locker is known for his athleticism. He is purported to have 4.4 speed. I highly doubt he does. Michael Vick didn't run at the 2001 NFL Combine, but LaDainian Tomlinson did. He ran a 4.42. 4.4 speed for a quarterback is very uncommon. At that same Combine, the top forties among quarterbacks belonged to Quincy Carter and Mike McMahon, 4.55 and 4.54 respectively. Locker profiles a little like McMahon.

McMahon was stuck on a terrible Rutgers team. He started midway through his freshman season and was hurt his junior season. His offensive line was thought awful. The Scarlet Knights won 8 of McMahon's 31 starts. Locker has won 6 of 24. That line, the surrounding talent, and the game situations McMahon faced justified his poor counting stats to some scouts. He never completed 50% of his passes for a season and threw 52 interceptions to only 41 touchdown passes. Locker has completed 51.7% of his passes for his career and has 27 touchdowns to 23 interceptions. McMahon clearly had the speed, but he wasn't a great rusher. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry his senior season. Locker has averaged 4.53 for his career, but only 2.8 this season.

I ran upon McMahon by accident. He was drafted by the Detroit Lions in the fifth round of the 2001 draft. McMahon started midway through his rookie season for the eventual 2-14 Marty Mornhinweg led Lions. It might seem a given the Lions rot, but they were 9-7 the season before, 8-8 and playoff bound the season before that, and both seasons post-Barry Sanders. Mornhinweg has since established himself as a top offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles. He was able to get production from Charlie Batch. Batch completed 58.1% of his passes that season and had 5.1 adjusted net yards an attempt. McMahon completed 46.1% of his passes, threw for 4.1 adjusted net yards an attempt and suffered a staggering sack percentage of 15.4%. The Lions line might have been bad, but when the eminently sackable Batch posts an 8.8% sack rate behind the same line, it says something when his replacement nearly doubles it.

McMahon never went on to success. The tools that scouts drooled over were undermined by his poor quarterback skills. His completion percentage and sack rate did not rebound in the pros, they got worse. He continued to throw interceptions at a rate well above his ability to throw touchdowns. Taking a long-shot flier on McMahon in the fifth was not the move that ruined Matt Millen, but every game McMahon started, Millen's Lions were expected to lose. McMahon finished his Lions career 1-6 and his professional career 3-11. Millen never did get his quarterback. He drafted Joey Harrington and got Joey Harrington. Harrington completed 55.2% of his passes at Oregon and 56.1% as a pro.

The point of this lengthy aside should be obvious. It is very hard to see Locker as a pro prospect when he has played very poorly in college. The synthesis of Locker and his surrounding talent is difficult to split. How do we apportion credit and blame? Like McMahon, Locker is believed to have a spotty to bad offensive line, but the sacks kept coming when McMahon hit the pros. A recent study by Pro Football Reference found sack percentage is the stat that is most consistent among quarterbacks changing teams. The next most consistent is completion percentage.

That shouldn't surprise anyone. As I detailed with Seneca Wallace, a quarterback can create much of his own pressure. Locker creates pressure. He is hyper-vigilant of the pass rush and begins to pace in the pocket, scramble or roll out even when pressure is not applied. Against Oregon, he ran into a sack on a three man rush. The Huskies had kept a blocker in and every Duck pass rusher was double teamed. Locker wasn't sitting in the pocket and the rush was somewhat disruptive, but no Duck was free or even closing on him when he decided to escape right and right into the defensive end.

He hasn't shaken that first instinct to run, but is stuck in a middle ground where he doesn't run decisively and doesn't stand in the pocket and pass. He makes some curious reads and does not show consistent accuracy. Locker has a nice mix of touch and arm-strength, but those are secondary abilities, of little worth before a quarterback has mastered pocket-presence, read and accuracy.

The Husky skill position players are ok: Certainly not the class of college, but not punishingly bad. The Husky's line is pour but not porous. Locker had time in the pocket on most snaps, not enviable time, but time enough to pass. He made throws with all the zip, touch and placement of a pro, but never consistently. His quick release is his best asset. Locker has a compact, ball-over-ear throwing motion. He doesn't wind up or expose the ball and it's out fast enough to hit receivers before the defensive back can respond. That's a great skill and one that will serve him well in the pros, should he make it that far.

Locker should return for another season. Mock draft boards are mercurial because change attracts readers. Husky homers eat up Jake Locker soaring up draft boards. October mock drafts are made to inspire links, not to reflect reality. Locker's foot speed is likely as trumped up as his prototypical height. 6'3" hasn't been prototypical for a decade. 6'5" is prototypical in the modern NFL. 6'3" is adequate. Locker is nevertheless an interesting mix of tools. If he ever learns to play quarterback, his ability to rush could complement his pass abilities like it has Donovan McNabb. He isn't Michael Vick and he won't run away from pro linebackers anticipating a run. I doubt he has true 4.4 speed and his moves are pedestrian for a pro quarterback.

He is at least a season from learning to play quarterback at anything close to the pro level. He exhibits major red flags: pocket presence, decision making and consistent accuracy. Any one could undercut him as a pro. Locker must first prove he can be a great college quarterback before Seattle fans envision him a great Seahawks quarterback. As he stands today, Locker is more Mike McMahon than Steve Young. Matt Millen suffered after drafting McMahon in the fifth. Tim Ruskell would look like quite the Millen if he dared draft Jake Locker in the first.

When Bulger was in college they didn't really give sack totals but they had rushes for a loss. His totals were high. He comes to the Rams and it's the same thing throughout his career.

[C-Mob 71]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

I honestly think we are a playoff team if Peyton Manning is our QB.

It might be an over evaluating of our Rams, ie I think Avery and Amendola are going to be good players, and our line isn't as bad as some think, and I believe our defense showed flashes of being really good- but they tired out by playing the whole game... but it could also have something to do with my close proximity of Indiana- or Peyton Land.

Lets look at the Colts, their offensive line is good, Saturday headlining that group, but not dominating like the Jets. Addai is obviously no S Jax. They do have Wayne and Clark, who we don't have anyone close to resembling, but Manning showed he can throw to anyone, ie Colloe and Garcon.

Their defense is fast, they have two of the best DE in the league, but other than that, not too impressive.

I'll quote a guy on ESPN, "if you put Peyton Manning on any other team in the AFC South, they are the favorites."
By the way, Garrard, Young, and Schaub were all Pro Bowl QB's.

Maybe I am putting Peyton on a pedestal, and yes football is a team sport, but I believe he would drastically improve our team.

[general counsel]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

Rebel, that article is one guys opinion, it doesnt cite any statistical evidence. Furthermore, bulger did not get sacked at anywhere near the same rate in his early years as the rams starter as he did after our line fell apart (loss of nutten, timmerman, pace (injuries and ultimately gone). Your statement "same thing since he got to the rams" just isnt factually accurate.

Are you suggesting that Manning would have only been sacked ten times if he played on the rams this year like he was on the colts?

Cmob, what about dallas clark? The young receivers are compliments to the star vets and they were all together getting reps since training camp, not changing week after week. Furthermore, their line plays great as a unit, it is much greater than the sum of its individual parts. The rams line has been changing weekly for years. The ten sacks speaks for itself.

ramming speed to all

general counsel

[Goldenfleece]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

My best guess would be about 4-5 games more. Washington, probably Chicago, and at least a couple of divisional games. Maybe Jacksonville or Houston. We also probably beat the Colts if they don't have Manning. I think .500 would have been a realistic if slightly optimistic possibility.

[bigredman]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

They would win enough to get to the Super Bowl and then choke.

[PeoriaRam]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

This year we likely would have gone 4-12. Maybe 5-11. Depends on how bad the injuries get and whether or not we either got Manning hurt or Manning was suffering from several previous years behind our line.

Manning can't help our receivers hold on to the ball.

[RebelYell]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

bulger did not get sacked at anywhere near the same rate in his early years as the rams starter as he did after our line fell apart (loss of nutten, timmerman, pace (injuries and ultimately gone).

In 2003 the Rams offensive line was Pace, Nutten, McCollum, Timmerman and Turley. Not a bad lineup considering Pace and Turley had all-pro seasons that year. Bulger had 37 sacks in 15 games. The Rams have been trying to rebuild the offensive line ever since because it was just never good enough to protect Marc.

Every year the excuse is that Marc is fine, it's the offensive lines fault. Once we draft one more great tackle or guard, it'll all turn around. Maybe we should just change the o-line coach. Thing was, it just never worked out that way. Everyone they brought in instantly became a bust but the single constant (Bulger) was never looked at as the excuse for why he kept getting sacked.

And it's silly to blame the receivers. It's not like Marc was tearing it up with Holt and Bruce. Their replacements were a far step down, zero doubt about that but Manning lost his #1 and didn't miss a beat.

[C-Mob 71]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

Cmob, what about dallas clark? The young receivers are compliments to the star vets and they were all together getting reps since training camp, not changing week after week. Furthermore, their line plays great as a unit, it is much greater than the sum of its individual parts. The rams line has been changing weekly for years. The ten sacks speaks for itself.

ramming speed to all

general counsel

I mentioned that we don't have anyone remotely close to Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark on our roster, but the Colts don't have anyone remotely close to S Jax either. Teams need all eleven defenders to focus on Manning, d line has to worry about a pass rush, and less of stopping the rush. I think that Jackson would compliment our wideouts, ie draw the focus of the backers and the d lineman, which would allow Peyton to pick apart defenses.

As far as pass pro, one of the things that makes Manning great is his ability to pick up blitzes and have him and Saturday adjust the line appropriately, in the Super Bowl, they Saints held back some blitzes till the second half, something Peyton did not recognize. His quick release and pre snap recognition would greatly improve our unit. I will submit that by the end of the year our o line was so bad that we had better have clinched the division, because even Peyton couldn't get the ball out that fast. But there were stretches where our oline was playing solid football.

Maybe I'm a guy who doesn't just see the glass half full, but also sees a pitcher of water sitting right next to it

After all, we played toe to toe with the Vikings and World Champ Saints, I guess I might see things in our Rams that our sitting just out of our grasp.

[RebelYell]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

I think the Rams are further away than C-Mob but you give this team 4 seriously good players that fit the Spags plan, they win 7 games. You add Suh, a QB, a CB and a WR, this team isn't all that horrible. You can get 2 of those in the draft and maybe 2 in free agency.

[PeoriaRam]

Re: how many games would the rams win with peyton manning at qb?

After all, we played toe to toe with the Vikings and World Champ Saints, I guess I might see things in our Rams that our sitting just out of our grasp.

It's kind of hard to evaluate us last year based on how top teams did against us, as the "mailing it in" potential was high in those games for those teams.