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Percentage of first round pick?

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  • Percentage of first round pick?

    Can someone please tell me how often we've seen an overall first round quarterback pick become a franchise player with a successful career. I'm too young and haven't followed the game that long.:|

  • #2
    Re: Percentage of first round pick?

    I haven't done an analysis of %, but Terry Bradshaw, Steve Barkowski, Jim Plunkett, John Elway, Troy Aikman, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer and Eli Manning were all first overall picks.


    • #3
      Re: Percentage of first round pick?

      Much more often than QB's picked after the 1st round. As great as the idea of developmental QBs sounds, it often doesn't work.

      Since 1997 (I used Manning's draft year) there have been 34 QB's selected in the 1st round.

      Out of those 34:
      11 have gone to the pro bowl (6 multiple times) and I think there is a solid chance that Stafford, Sanchez, Flacco or Ryan (or a combination of them) will make it at some point.

      They have also compiled 4 super bowl rings among 3 of the QB's (One for Manning, one for the other Manning, and two for Big Ben)

      Since 1997 again, there have been 128 QB's selected after the first round

      Out of those 128:
      7 have gone to the pro bowl, (4 multiple times) it is hard for me to tell who might have a shot at the pro bowl, but I'd say Schaub probably does, as well as maybe Kolb if you believe in him. Apologies but it is a lot of names to look through for current and future starters. (Although pro bowl potential is totally my opinion)

      They have also compiled 4 super bowl rings. 3 for Tom Brady, and one for Brees. The other Superbowls won in this time frame were won by QB's drafted before 97. (Brad Johnson and Kurt Warner not in the 1st round, Elway and Dilfer were in the 1st)

      Even if you narrow the field to only 2nd rounders after 97, you get two QB's who have gone to the pro bowl and one superbowl ring. (And only 14 selected).

      Percentage wise that is
      1st round pro bowl - 32%
      2nd round pro bowl - 14%
      3nd round and later pro bowl - .04%

      I decided to leave out the super bowl percentages as they were skewed by pre-97 qb's winning 5 super bowls, and 5 super bowls going to two qb's.

      Now there are a lot of other factors to consider in terms of success, and a lot of ways to define what is a "Franchise" qb, and I won't try to decipher out who among the pro bowl QBs is a "franchise" player and who isn't. However, only three QB's after the first round since 97 I would say have had sustained success, that being Brady, Brees, and Hasselbeck. You can count many more in the first round, and in a lot fewer picks. (again, 34 as compared to 128).

      Do those numbers mean Bradford has a 32% shot at the pro bowl and McCoy only a 14%? No, it will all depend on the individual player. However, according to history at least, there is a HUGE drop off in QB talent after the 1st round, and a significantly reduced chance that the QB you pick up will do anything special. To me, as much of a game of chance drafting a QB in the first round is, the numbers tell me that teams at least have an idea of who will make it in the NFL, since QBs after the 1st have such a lower success rate.

      EDIT: I know you asked about first overall, but in some ways I think it's unfair to judge only by 1st overall because whether a team drafts a QB first overall depends on if they need one. If the Lions had the 1st overall pick this year, Bradford would not be going #1 overall.
      Last edited by berg8309; -04-06-2010, 10:35 AM.


      • #4
        Re: Percentage of first round pick?

        Just as a quick follow up:

        QB's after 97 have gone to the pro bowl a total of 47 times. 30 of those appearances were by 1st rounders, and 17 were by everyone after the 1st.

        so that is about 63% for 1st round picks and 37% for all QB's after the first.

        16 of those pro bowl appearances has been by 1st overall QB's (Slightly skewed thanks to Manning). However, although that appears to be the same for everyone after the 1st, remember that is 16 pro bowl appearances from 9 total selections as opposed to 17 from 128 total selections.

        No other slot has has many pro bowl appearances. Again, pro bowl is probably not the best measuring stick, but it's a fairly solid one for a quick and dirty analysis.


        • #5
          Re: Percentage of first round pick?

          Since the merger

          1970: Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh)-HOF

          1971: Jim Plunkett (New England)-2 time SB winner

          1975: Steve Bartkowski (Atlanta)-former franchise QB, Pro Bowler

          1983: John Elway (Baltimore)-HOF

          1987: Vinny Testaverde (Tampa Bay)-journeyman, Pro Bowler

          1989: Troy Aikman (Dallas)-HOF

          1990: Jeff George (Indianapolis)-bust

          1993: Drew Bledsoe (New England)-former franchise QB, Pro Bowler

          1998: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis)-Current franchise QB, SB winner, NFL MVP, Future HOF

          1999: Tim Couch (Cleveland)-bust

          2001: Michael Vick (Atlanta)-former franchise QB, Pro Bowler, career derailed by dogfighting scandal

          2002: David Carr (Houston)-bust

          2003: Carson Palmer (Cincinnati)-current franchise QB, Pro Bowler

          2004: Eli Manning (San Diego)-Current franchise QB, SB winner, Pro Bowler

          2005: Alex Smith (San Francisco)-bust

          2007: JaMarcus Russell (Oakland)-bust

          2009: Matthew Stafford (Detroit)-too soon to tell

          Out of the 17

          10 were considered successful franchise QBs for a considerable portion of their careers (58.8 percent)

          5 were busts (29.4 percent)

          1 has a career too young to make a determination (5.9 percent)

          1 falls in between bust and successful franchise QB (5.9 percent)


          • #6
            Re: Percentage of first round pick?

            whilst these kind of things are interesting to know....i very much doubt if Billy D and Spags have given the history of the 1st overall picks a second`s thought in their evaluation of the prospects on their 1st pick radar...and rightly so.

            not that ive seen anyone on this thread imply as much..but just adding that anyway.


            • #7
              Re: Percentage of first round pick?

              Originally posted by Ramblin` Ram View Post
              whilst these kind of things are interesting to know....i very much doubt if Billy D and Spags have given the history of the 1st overall picks a second`s thought in their evaluation of the prospects on their 1st pick radar...and rightly so.

              not that ive seen anyone on this thread imply as much..but just adding that anyway.

              Excellent response and right on the money. You do not make decisions based on what previous teams did in similar situations; you make them based on what you think is currently right for your football team. And if the overwhelming majority of Rams' brass feels Bradford is a franchise QB, then you take him and live with the decision.

              And as the numbers point out anyway, while you can occasionally find a diamond in the rough (Warner, Brady), your best bet at finding a long term QB is early.


              • #8
                Re: Percentage of first round pick?

                If you want to look at historical context as well, in the 1st round since 1970 more DT's have been drafted then QB's, yet more QB's have gone to the pro bowl and hall of fame. This is especially true from the #1 spot where only 2 DT's have been selected, and only one went to a pro bowl, once. Only one DT is in the HoF, a 2nd overall pick.

                So although many people immediately claim DT is the "safer" pick, it isn't really. Sure a bust DT may still be more useful than a bust QB in the sense they may be able to play a couple of snaps and relieve the starters, but a bust is a bust from the #1, either way the franchise is hurt pretty bad.

                I agree with the sentiment that historical values don't matter to Bradford and Suh though. Just because player X did Y doesn't mean Bradford or Suh will. Each will have their own career path that will change the stats in some fashion. However, if one were to pick on history, one would pick Bradford because historically QBs are actually the safer pick in the 1st, and 1st overall, strangely enough. That is, if you are attempting to hit a homerun and not just a single.


                • #9
                  Re: Percentage of first round pick?

                  Thanks for the input guys.


                  • #10
                    Re: Percentage of first round pick?

                    Brilliant post berg, nice to see some intelligent insight. Im a firm believer in you shape your own destiny naturally. Each player's failure has to do with that player and a complex set of variables. Nice to put down the statistic argument.


                    Related Topics


                    • rampower
                      First round talent?
                      by rampower
                      Some recent topics on here got me thinking. What dictates a first round talent. If the pool of talent is small, the first round talent is thinner, but people will proclaim some guys a first round talent, some guys not?

                      It's almost like the Mythical Super Bowl winning QB, some guys that have won them aren't that good, some that haven't are awesome. I understand that When people use the phrase Super Bowl winning quarterback, they by and large are saying one of those 4 or 5 QB's that come along every decade who always win in the clutch and play better under pressure, always finding a way to win.

                      Anyways back on Topic,

                      What makes a player a 'first round talent'
                      -04-07-2013, 04:53 AM
                    • AvengerRam_old
                      QB needy teams should beware of bargain hunting
                      by AvengerRam_old
                      Players like Tom Brady and Kurt Warner have created the false sense that drafting a QB in the first round is not necessary. However, in the aggregate, a different picture emerges.

                      Of the 12 playoff teams this year, 8 (66.6%) had starting QBs drafted in the first round (and a 9th, New Orleans, have one who was the first pick in the second round - Drew Brees).

                      Of the 8 playoff teams to make it to the divisional round, 6 (75%) had starting QBs drafted in the first round.


                      Of the final 4 teams, 4 (100%) have starting QBs who were drafted in the first round.

                      So, if you are the GM for Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco, Minnesota, Buffalo, Carolina or another team with an unsettled QB situation, can you afford to pass on a first round prospect?

                      This question could be even more difficult if the FA period is delayed by the labor talks. If FA starts on time, many teams will seek a veteran (Donovan McNabb, Vince Young, Marc Bulger, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb) in the FA or trade market. But, if FA is delayed, these teams will have to make their draft decision BEFORE they know if that strategy will bear fruit.

                      Just one more reason to be happy that the Rams have Sam Bradford.
                      -01-21-2011, 08:02 AM
                    • jmk321
                      Please don't traft Tyler Eifert
                      by jmk321
                      I think Tyler Eifert is a good player and could be a good tight end in the NFL but I would be very disappointed if the Rams decided to take him with one of their 1st round picks. The reason for this is that tight end is a luxury position that most teams rarely spend 1st round picks on. No tight ends were taken by any team in the first round of the last 2 drafts because the same value can be found in later rounds. Out of the first round tight ends drafted in the last 6 years, only 1 has made a pro bowl and that was Jermaine Gresham. Gresham only made the team in 2012 because of player drop outs and if you look at his and Lance Kendricks' stats for their first 2 years in the league then you will notice they are very similar. Gresham also looked like a special player coming out of college as the best playmaker on the one of the best offenses in college football history so his first round selection was defendable.

                      I could be talked into taking Eifert if he was a great can't miss future pro bowl prospect but he appears to be in the mold of a Coby Fleener or Kyle Rudolph who are good big target guys that come out every year and are available in the second round or later. I would be fine with it if the Rams took him in the second round but not the first because I would prefer higher value pick at a position of need with our day one picks.
                      -02-18-2013, 01:44 PM
                    • sosa39rams
                      2nd round topic
                      by sosa39rams
                      As I am watching the senior bowl, I have noticed that Brandon Graham has come to play. Hes doing a fantastic job in the running and passing game.

                      Hes been a force all game and is dominating the Oline. I would like to consider him for our 2nd round pick. I also like Sean Weatherspoon. He is also having a great game and they would both fill positions of need.
                      -01-30-2010, 03:00 PM
                    • Guest's Avatar
                      Phat's 2nd Round Projection.. Rams Pic Only.
                      by Guest
                      This may be a little High For him, But after watching the senior Bowl I would Like to See Dominic Rodgers Cromartie With the First Pick In the Second Round.
                      -01-26-2008, 04:13 PM