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If you're a supporter of analytics, then Football Outsiders says Goff's your guy

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  • If you're a supporter of analytics, then Football Outsiders says Goff's your guy

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/ins...rson-wentz-nfl

    Not all the charts are translating so I'm just linking to the article, but the TL;DR version of it is this...

    Based on their metrics, Wentz has a 61.9% chance to bust with a 38.1% chance to be an adequate starter or better. Goff has a 28.1% chance to bust and a whopping 71.8% chance to be adequate or better (37.7% chance of being upper tier). Lynch, Cook, Hackenberg, and Prescott are also examined.


  • #2
    Nick, thanks for sharing. The article you linked to is behind ESPN's paywall, but I found the original article on the Football Outsider's website. I'm going to link it, but feel free to edit it out if you need to.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/sta...016/qbase-2016

    As someone who initially wanted Wentz at 15, I hadn't really thought too much about the QBs in the draft until the trade (and it's also the weekend). The more I watch the more I'm starting to think Goff is going to be the better pick. Its easy to fall in the love with Wentz and his projectables, but there are a lot of red flags too.

    Analytics in football seem tricky, but I think Football Outsiders has done a pretty decent job here (there's no "clutch rating"...looking at you ESPN). It's hard to argue that majority of the good QB's in the NFL floated to the top here. Their formula has some notable, but you could make a strong argument that it's a better predictor of success than traditional scouting.

    What's intriguing to me about Goff's projected probability is not only the low bust potential, but the elite potential. The 37.7% upper tier you mentioned includes the combined "Upper Tier" (23.5%) and "Elite" (14.2%). The knock on Goff is that he doesn't have the top-end potential of Wentz. FO and their formula would apparently disagree.

    Comment


    • #3
      "QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long resume of college success according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, yards per attempt, and team passing efficiency. Most importantly, all those stats are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates."

      This clearly sets up Wentz to look like a far more likely failure, rather irrationally. He sat behind a 3 time national championship winning QB, for 2 years. No matter how good he was, they weren't going to bench Brock Jensen in favor of Wentz. NDSU also plays a very physical, smash mouth brand of ball. It's primarily a run based offense. I can assure you, they don't feature any game breakers at WR or TE. He was never going to put up eye popping numbers as a passer. It's just not the game that NDSU plays. I don't follow CAL football but I assume they air it out quite a bit, comparatively. Also, what are those things under Goff's body? Are they twigs...or legs? He's not a very sturdy looking kid. Whoever they take better be sturdy, as he will certainly be taking a beating.
      "You people point your 'f'in' finger and say theres the bad guy....what that make you....good?" Tony Montana

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Fargo Ram Fan View Post
        "QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long resume of college success according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, yards per attempt, and team passing efficiency. Most importantly, all those stats are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates."

        This clearly sets up Wentz to look like a far more likely failure, rather irrationally. He sat behind a 3 time national championship winning QB, for 2 years. No matter how good he was, they weren't going to bench Brock Jensen in favor of Wentz. NDSU also plays a very physical, smash mouth brand of ball. It's primarily a run based offense. I can assure you, they don't feature any game breakers at WR or TE. He was never going to put up eye popping numbers as a passer. It's just not the game that NDSU plays. I don't follow CAL football but I assume they air it out quite a bit, comparatively. Also, what are those things under Goff's body? Are they twigs...or legs? He's not a very sturdy looking kid. Whoever they take better be sturdy, as he will certainly be taking a beating.
        You bring up some good points, but I feel the need to play devil's advocate, if only because we've still got a week and a half to have this debate before a pick is made and it's over. ;)

        If we're to go along with the idea that Wentz is a potential franchise quarterback and top overall pick caliber of player, then shouldn't he have beaten out Brock for that job regardless of what Jensen had been able to accomplish to that point? Moreover, shouldn't his superior talent have inspired his coach to expand their offense to better feature his skills? I mean, Jensen went undrafted and is playing Canadian ball right now, and according to this offseason, Wentz could be the next Cam Newton or even Tom Brady depending on whom you listen to. How do you keep that (1) on the bench or (2) saddled in a run-first offense?

        Appreciate your thoughts!

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Fargo Ram Fan View Post
          "This clearly sets up Wentz to look like a far more likely failure, rather irrationally. He sat behind a 3 time national championship winning QB, for 2 years. No matter how good he was, they weren't going to bench Brock Jensen in favor of Wentz. NDSU also plays a very physical, smash mouth brand of ball. It's primarily a run based offense. I can assure you, they don't feature any game breakers at WR or TE. He was never going to put up eye popping numbers as a passer. It's just not the game that NDSU plays.
          I think the formula does set Wentz up with a higher probability of busting. I don't know about irrationally though. I mean, essentially what you're saying is that a 1.5 year starter (because Wentz only played 7 games as a senior), who played in a run-first offense, against inferior defenses in the FCS doesn't have any higher a probability of busting than someone who doesn't have these limitations (if I understood your post correctly). Because those all sound to me like things that would decrease the probability of successfully transitioning to the NFL. I get that you're saying it's not Wentz's fault, and these are the circumstances he had to work with, and that's all true. But IMO they're all still things that increase the probability of a QB busting.

          Transitioning to the NFL is extremely difficult for anyone, and small school players face a bigger jump in talent than their peers. Wentz is in a unique situation, but he has all of the physical and mental tools necessary for success. With that said, I don't think limited experience and inferior competition can't be dismissed as inconsequential when developing a formula like QBASE designed to predict NFL success.

          Last edited by AtlantaRamFan; -04-17-2016, 01:09 PM.

          Comment


          • #6

            If we draft Goff and Fisher gets fired next year, he could be a great player if the scheme is built around his skill sets.The only problem is we don't have the draft picks to overhaul and change the personnel anytime soon. If Fisher is extended I just don't see Goff ever reaching his full potential under a Fisher coached team. Put another way if Martz was the head coach and the team was already built around talented skill players I'd be all in for Goff.

            When I hear the pundits say Goff is more NFL ready. I say he is but only in certain systems, not in ones where the QB is under center. Wentz is more NFL ready in that system by far, since he's played in they type of system.


            Mariota had a great rookie year but he still was more productive in the shotgun then under center his rookie year and the Titans say they want him under center more this year. If he does not improve his play from under center and the Titans run more plays under center, he will start to regress in 2016. I think it makes sense to take the player that already plays under center with upside then take a player that put up bigger numbers in a system that is not going to be the one he is asked to run in the NFL. Another example RG3, he played great in his rookie year in the same system he played in college, but he became far less productive playing from under center.

            Bottom line is both are solid prospects not off the chart (Luck type) prospects. The Rams spending that draft capital seems like a desperate move, which it is, but what else you gonna do.... Safest play now is to take the one that fits your scheme and personnel, not the one with better numbers that where produced in a system they won't be asked to run in the NFL.

            Wentz is the better fit.

            Comment


            • #7
              Ok....who here will be looking at the guy we did not draft to see how he is doing each week compared to our guy? I wish it was just one sure fired guy. Scares me to leave that to Fisher lol

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by macrammer View Post
                Ok....who here will be looking at the guy we did not draft to see how he is doing each week compared to our guy? I wish it was just one sure fired guy. Scares me to leave that to Fisher lol
                Well at least Fisher is good at being 50/50 so I guess there is a 50/50 chance that we will get the better of the two QB's.

                I would be so sweet having Donalds, Gurley and some Stud QB on the same team. But I do not believe it until I see it. And I fear that even if we get the right QB he will just pop he knee in preseason or something. It is really hard to stay optimistic with the Rams and all the down we have been going through for the last 10+ years.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by macrammer View Post
                  Ok....who here will be looking at the guy we did not draft to see how he is doing each week compared to our guy? I wish it was just one sure fired guy. Scares me to leave that to Fisher lol
                  Probably, but you have to tell yourself, the second those picks have been made, the prospects have splintered off into their own paths completely separate from what they could have done with the other teams. The example I always think of is the Rams passing on DeSean Jackson to take Donnie Avery. Who's to say if DeSean Jackson becomes DeSean Jackson if he comes to the Rams and not the Eagles? Is Alex Smith an annual all-pro if he's the one who slips to Green Bay instead of Rodgers? There are so many variables that it makes the comparisons you naturally want to make almost impossible.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Nick View Post


                    If we're to go along with the idea that Wentz is a potential franchise quarterback and top overall pick caliber of player, then shouldn't he have beaten out Brock for that job regardless of what Jensen had been able to accomplish to that point? Moreover, shouldn't his superior talent have inspired his coach to expand their offense to better feature his skills? I mean, Jensen went undrafted and is playing Canadian ball right now, and according to this offseason, Wentz could be the next Cam Newton or even Tom Brady depending on whom you listen to. How do you keep that (1) on the bench or (2) saddled in a run-first offense?

                    Appreciate your thoughts!

                    Regarding him beating out or replacing Jensen, there is zero chance that was going to happen...as long as the Bison were steamrolling teams....which they kept doing. There was just no reason to upset the apple cart in such a fashion. Such a move wasn't necessary, nor would it have been fair to Jensen, who IMO was a BETTER football player than Wentz (just not as gifted, physically). Fans and media would have endlessly questioned/roasted the coaches for such a foolish move. Probably, legitimately.

                    The Bison are built to be a run first team....and why mess with success? The real key to what sets them apart is their strength and conditioning program, headed up by a man named Jim Kramer. They pound opponents relentlessly and generally have them sucking wind by the 4th quarter. The last coach (Craig Bohl) who was lured away to coach Wyoming desperately wanted Kramer to join him. Kramer chose to stay put. Not saying there is a direct correlation...but Bohl is failing miserably at Wyoming....and the Bison roll on and on.

                    Look, I'm not buying into the ridiculous Wentz hype train. The kid got incredibly LUCKY with the way things broke for him this season. The game that he got injured in was the teams most humiliating loss (at home to the conference weakling) in the last 5 years. The team sat at 4-2, facing a couple of challenging road games and simply not playing real well. One more loss would have meant no home field run through the playoffs and 2 more losses may have spelled no post season, at all. To be honest, many (me included) figured the championship run was all but over. A freshman QB came in to replace Wentz, the defense began to improve and the team rattled off 8 straight victories...without him. He was still very questionable for the title game and was named starter just the day before the game. He was the focal point of the game, from the opening snap. The play by play team kept saying how 'this kid just made alot of money today' all during the game. I know Mel Kiper had him listed as a top 5 senior QB going into the season....but had things broke the other way (with even one more loss) and NDSU misses that title game...the hype would be nothing compared to what it is. We wouldn't even be having this conversation. He would most likely still be a top 10 QB...but not in the conversation for #1. Just my opinion. I still like him over Goff, just based on his physical stature, work ethic and leadership qualities. Goff just looks like a weak twig to me.
                    "You people point your 'f'in' finger and say theres the bad guy....what that make you....good?" Tony Montana

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Fargo Ram Fan View Post


                      Regarding him beating out or replacing Jensen, there is zero chance that was going to happen...as long as the Bison were steamrolling teams....which they kept doing. There was just no reason to upset the apple cart in such a fashion. Such a move wasn't necessary, nor would it have been fair to Jensen, who IMO was a BETTER football player than Wentz (just not as gifted, physically). Fans and media would have endlessly questioned/roasted the coaches for such a foolish move. Probably, legitimately.

                      The Bison are built to be a run first team....and why mess with success? The real key to what sets them apart is their strength and conditioning program, headed up by a man named Jim Kramer. They pound opponents relentlessly and generally have them sucking wind by the 4th quarter. The last coach (Craig Bohl) who was lured away to coach Wyoming desperately wanted Kramer to join him. Kramer chose to stay put. Not saying there is a direct correlation...but Bohl is failing miserably at Wyoming....and the Bison roll on and on.

                      Look, I'm not buying into the ridiculous Wentz hype train. The kid got incredibly LUCKY with the way things broke for him this season. The game that he got injured in was the teams most humiliating loss (at home to the conference weakling) in the last 5 years. The team sat at 4-2, facing a couple of challenging road games and simply not playing real well. One more loss would have meant no home field run through the playoffs and 2 more losses may have spelled no post season, at all. To be honest, many (me included) figured the championship run was all but over. A freshman QB came in to replace Wentz, the defense began to improve and the team rattled off 8 straight victories...without him. He was still very questionable for the title game and was named starter just the day before the game. He was the focal point of the game, from the opening snap. The play by play team kept saying how 'this kid just made alot of money today' all during the game. I know Mel Kiper had him listed as a top 5 senior QB going into the season....but had things broke the other way (with even one more loss) and NDSU misses that title game...the hype would be nothing compared to what it is. We wouldn't even be having this conversation. He would most likely still be a top 10 QB...but not in the conversation for #1. Just my opinion. I still like him over Goff, just based on his physical stature, work ethic and leadership qualities. Goff just looks like a weak twig to me.
                      Thanks for the insight!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Not disparaging the mathematicians at FootballOutsiders, but I would think it would be difficult to come up with some formula when one kid played a D-2 schedule, and the other played in the Pac-12. Seems like projection would be pretty tough.
                        The more things change, the more they stay the same.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by macrammer View Post
                          Ok....who here will be looking at the guy we did not draft to see how he is doing each week compared to our guy? I wish it was just one sure fired guy. Scares me to leave that to Fisher lol
                          Yeah remember when Peyton Manning went #1 there were some that thought the # 2 guy could be better. Anyone remember Ryan Leaf's great NFL career?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by PARamfan View Post

                            Yeah remember when Peyton Manning went #1 there were some that thought the # 2 guy could be better. Anyone remember Ryan Leaf's great NFL career?
                            And that is what scares me, I cannot loss the feeling that we will be picking up the Leaf and somebody else will get the Manning I so hope that I am wrong on this feeling. I think we deserve some good fortune and some winning seasons soon

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Nick View Post

                              Probably, but you have to tell yourself, the second those picks have been made, the prospects have splintered off into their own paths completely separate from what they could have done with the other teams. The example I always think of is the Rams passing on DeSean Jackson to take Donnie Avery. Who's to say if DeSean Jackson becomes DeSean Jackson if he comes to the Rams and not the Eagles? Is Alex Smith an annual all-pro if he's the one who slips to Green Bay instead of Rodgers? There are so many variables that it makes the comparisons you naturally want to make almost impossible.

                              of course what you say makes complete sense. I personally think Fisher and his old school mentality are not great at developing nor nurturing a QB. So while what you said makes sense is also my reason for concern as a Ram fan. I sincerely hope my concern is unfounded.

                              Comment

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