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If you're a supporter of analytics, then Football Outsiders says Goff's your guy

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  • If you're a supporter of analytics, then Football Outsiders says Goff's your guy

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/ins...rson-wentz-nfl

    Not all the charts are translating so I'm just linking to the article, but the TL;DR version of it is this...

    Based on their metrics, Wentz has a 61.9% chance to bust with a 38.1% chance to be an adequate starter or better. Goff has a 28.1% chance to bust and a whopping 71.8% chance to be adequate or better (37.7% chance of being upper tier). Lynch, Cook, Hackenberg, and Prescott are also examined.

  • Nick
    replied
    Originally posted by Fargo Ram Fan View Post
    Your point...or shall I say...agenda?? I digress......
    Does someone with a NDSU avatar really have the footing to accuse someone else of an agenda in a debate about these two QBs? I wonder... ;)


    Originally posted by Fargo Ram Fan View Post
    But (of course) he was instrumental in the playoff run, as he was mentoring the freshman QB every step of the way. He was involved in all the prep and meetings for every game. He was on the sideline, helping the kid during the games and the result was a national championship....just their 5th straight. Wentz has been on hand for 4 of them. His numbers in the game didn't blow anyone away. That was often the case. It's not a pass heavy offense. I see you conveniently failed to acknowledge his 79 yards and 2 TDs rushing and the fact that he was named outstanding player of the game, for a second straight year. Shocking. Yes, he was a bit rusty after missing 2 months of game action. To be expected. Last time I checked, the result of the game is what matters most. A QB's job is to lead his team to victories and (hopefully) championships...not rack up personal stats. NDSU plays team ball. No gaudy individual numbers...EVER. Results on file.
    So just to be clear, this was a championship-caliber team before Wentz took over as starting QB, it was a championship-caliber team while Wentz was its starting QB, and it was a championship-caliber team when a freshman replaced Wentz as the starting QB.

    I'm not trying to sound like I'm down on the guy, because I'm not and would be satisified with him in horns, but this doesn't sound like a compelling argument about Wentz's talent if the team was great before and after him. How can you really measure the impact he had on them? And while you've made a fair argument about not disrupting a good thing in terms of Wentz not supplanting Jensen, it's also a hard pill to swallow that this franchise caliber number one overall pick Wentz was stuck behind undrafted and now playing in Canada Jensen.

    All indications are that Wentz has both the physical skills and the intangibles to be an NFL success, which is the main reason I'm fine if he ends up being the Rams pick. But something just isn't clicking in my mind about Wentz, and maybe it's all for nothing, but these are the kinds of questions I'm still stuck on.

    Leave a comment:


  • AvengerRam_old
    replied
    Agenda? Okay... whatever. I've repeatedly said that its a close call.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fargo Ram Fan
    replied
    Originally posted by AvengerRam View Post

    Of course, last year, Wentz missed the early rounds of the playoffs and only returned for the final game, in which he threw for less than 200 yards, 1 TD and 2 Ints.
    Your point...or shall I say...agenda?? I digress......

    But (of course) he was instrumental in the playoff run, as he was mentoring the freshman QB every step of the way. He was involved in all the prep and meetings for every game. He was on the sideline, helping the kid during the games and the result was a national championship....just their 5th straight. Wentz has been on hand for 4 of them. His numbers in the game didn't blow anyone away. That was often the case. It's not a pass heavy offense. I see you conveniently failed to acknowledge his 79 yards and 2 TDs rushing and the fact that he was named outstanding player of the game, for a second straight year. Shocking. Yes, he was a bit rusty after missing 2 months of game action. To be expected. Last time I checked, the result of the game is what matters most. A QB's job is to lead his team to victories and (hopefully) championships...not rack up personal stats. NDSU plays team ball. No gaudy individual numbers...EVER. Results on file.

    Leave a comment:


  • r8rh8rmike
    replied
    Originally posted by Fargo Ram Fan View Post
    I can't speak about Goff on that front but Wentz is about as well grounded and hard working as you're going to find. He also brings the leadership factor and winning mentality forged from being at the head of a dynasty. And this is a dynasty built upon winning to earn home field playoff games and winning through a true tournament....where you see the level of opposition get better at each step. Far more equal to the NFL in that aspect as opposed to the joke that is the FBS system of crowning a somewhat mythical champion.
    My point was more about analytics, not Wentz, I just hope the Rams do their due diligence in evaluating both Goff and Wentz with regard to mental aspects and personality.

    As far as Wentz, I've heard nothing but great things about him as a person, a leader, a teammate, a tireless driven worker, and a player that makes those around him better.

    Leave a comment:


  • AvengerRam_old
    replied
    Originally posted by Fargo Ram Fan View Post



    I can't speak about Goff on that front but Wentz is about as well grounded and hard working as you're going to find. He also brings the leadership factor and winning mentality forged from being at the head of a dynasty. And this is a dynasty built upon winning to earn home field playoff games and winning through a true tournament....where you see the level of opposition get better at each step. Far more equal to the NFL in that aspect as opposed to the joke that is the FBS system of crowning a somewhat mythical champion.
    Of course, last year, Wentz missed the early rounds of the playoffs and only returned for the final game, in which he threw for less than 200 yards, 1 TD and 2 Ints.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fargo Ram Fan
    replied
    Originally posted by r8rh8rmike View Post

    Leaf had great numbers at WSU, and all the physical tools. The problem was, he had a lousy attitude, was emotionally unstable, and had no mental toughness. Unfortunately, analytics don't account for these factors.

    I have no problem using analytics, but only as one of many tools to evaluate a prospect.


    I can't speak about Goff on that front but Wentz is about as well grounded and hard working as you're going to find. He also brings the leadership factor and winning mentality forged from being at the head of a dynasty. And this is a dynasty built upon winning to earn home field playoff games and winning through a true tournament....where you see the level of opposition get better at each step. Far more equal to the NFL in that aspect as opposed to the joke that is the FBS system of crowning a somewhat mythical champion.

    Leave a comment:


  • r8rh8rmike
    replied
    Originally posted by PARamfan View Post
    Yeah remember when Peyton Manning went #1 there were some that thought the # 2 guy could be better. Anyone remember Ryan Leaf's great NFL career?
    Leaf had great numbers at WSU, and all the physical tools. The problem was, he had a lousy attitude, was emotionally unstable, and had no mental toughness. Unfortunately, analytics don't account for these factors.

    I have no problem using analytics, but only as one of many tools to evaluate a prospect.

    Leave a comment:


  • macrammer
    replied
    Originally posted by Nick View Post

    Probably, but you have to tell yourself, the second those picks have been made, the prospects have splintered off into their own paths completely separate from what they could have done with the other teams. The example I always think of is the Rams passing on DeSean Jackson to take Donnie Avery. Who's to say if DeSean Jackson becomes DeSean Jackson if he comes to the Rams and not the Eagles? Is Alex Smith an annual all-pro if he's the one who slips to Green Bay instead of Rodgers? There are so many variables that it makes the comparisons you naturally want to make almost impossible.

    of course what you say makes complete sense. I personally think Fisher and his old school mentality are not great at developing nor nurturing a QB. So while what you said makes sense is also my reason for concern as a Ram fan. I sincerely hope my concern is unfounded.

    Leave a comment:


  • clarasDK
    replied
    Originally posted by PARamfan View Post

    Yeah remember when Peyton Manning went #1 there were some that thought the # 2 guy could be better. Anyone remember Ryan Leaf's great NFL career?
    And that is what scares me, I cannot loss the feeling that we will be picking up the Leaf and somebody else will get the Manning I so hope that I am wrong on this feeling. I think we deserve some good fortune and some winning seasons soon

    Leave a comment:


  • PARamfan
    replied
    Originally posted by macrammer View Post
    Ok....who here will be looking at the guy we did not draft to see how he is doing each week compared to our guy? I wish it was just one sure fired guy. Scares me to leave that to Fisher lol
    Yeah remember when Peyton Manning went #1 there were some that thought the # 2 guy could be better. Anyone remember Ryan Leaf's great NFL career?

    Leave a comment:


  • HUbison
    replied
    Not disparaging the mathematicians at FootballOutsiders, but I would think it would be difficult to come up with some formula when one kid played a D-2 schedule, and the other played in the Pac-12. Seems like projection would be pretty tough.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nick
    replied
    Originally posted by Fargo Ram Fan View Post


    Regarding him beating out or replacing Jensen, there is zero chance that was going to happen...as long as the Bison were steamrolling teams....which they kept doing. There was just no reason to upset the apple cart in such a fashion. Such a move wasn't necessary, nor would it have been fair to Jensen, who IMO was a BETTER football player than Wentz (just not as gifted, physically). Fans and media would have endlessly questioned/roasted the coaches for such a foolish move. Probably, legitimately.

    The Bison are built to be a run first team....and why mess with success? The real key to what sets them apart is their strength and conditioning program, headed up by a man named Jim Kramer. They pound opponents relentlessly and generally have them sucking wind by the 4th quarter. The last coach (Craig Bohl) who was lured away to coach Wyoming desperately wanted Kramer to join him. Kramer chose to stay put. Not saying there is a direct correlation...but Bohl is failing miserably at Wyoming....and the Bison roll on and on.

    Look, I'm not buying into the ridiculous Wentz hype train. The kid got incredibly LUCKY with the way things broke for him this season. The game that he got injured in was the teams most humiliating loss (at home to the conference weakling) in the last 5 years. The team sat at 4-2, facing a couple of challenging road games and simply not playing real well. One more loss would have meant no home field run through the playoffs and 2 more losses may have spelled no post season, at all. To be honest, many (me included) figured the championship run was all but over. A freshman QB came in to replace Wentz, the defense began to improve and the team rattled off 8 straight victories...without him. He was still very questionable for the title game and was named starter just the day before the game. He was the focal point of the game, from the opening snap. The play by play team kept saying how 'this kid just made alot of money today' all during the game. I know Mel Kiper had him listed as a top 5 senior QB going into the season....but had things broke the other way (with even one more loss) and NDSU misses that title game...the hype would be nothing compared to what it is. We wouldn't even be having this conversation. He would most likely still be a top 10 QB...but not in the conversation for #1. Just my opinion. I still like him over Goff, just based on his physical stature, work ethic and leadership qualities. Goff just looks like a weak twig to me.
    Thanks for the insight!

    Leave a comment:


  • Fargo Ram Fan
    replied
    Originally posted by Nick View Post


    If we're to go along with the idea that Wentz is a potential franchise quarterback and top overall pick caliber of player, then shouldn't he have beaten out Brock for that job regardless of what Jensen had been able to accomplish to that point? Moreover, shouldn't his superior talent have inspired his coach to expand their offense to better feature his skills? I mean, Jensen went undrafted and is playing Canadian ball right now, and according to this offseason, Wentz could be the next Cam Newton or even Tom Brady depending on whom you listen to. How do you keep that (1) on the bench or (2) saddled in a run-first offense?

    Appreciate your thoughts!

    Regarding him beating out or replacing Jensen, there is zero chance that was going to happen...as long as the Bison were steamrolling teams....which they kept doing. There was just no reason to upset the apple cart in such a fashion. Such a move wasn't necessary, nor would it have been fair to Jensen, who IMO was a BETTER football player than Wentz (just not as gifted, physically). Fans and media would have endlessly questioned/roasted the coaches for such a foolish move. Probably, legitimately.

    The Bison are built to be a run first team....and why mess with success? The real key to what sets them apart is their strength and conditioning program, headed up by a man named Jim Kramer. They pound opponents relentlessly and generally have them sucking wind by the 4th quarter. The last coach (Craig Bohl) who was lured away to coach Wyoming desperately wanted Kramer to join him. Kramer chose to stay put. Not saying there is a direct correlation...but Bohl is failing miserably at Wyoming....and the Bison roll on and on.

    Look, I'm not buying into the ridiculous Wentz hype train. The kid got incredibly LUCKY with the way things broke for him this season. The game that he got injured in was the teams most humiliating loss (at home to the conference weakling) in the last 5 years. The team sat at 4-2, facing a couple of challenging road games and simply not playing real well. One more loss would have meant no home field run through the playoffs and 2 more losses may have spelled no post season, at all. To be honest, many (me included) figured the championship run was all but over. A freshman QB came in to replace Wentz, the defense began to improve and the team rattled off 8 straight victories...without him. He was still very questionable for the title game and was named starter just the day before the game. He was the focal point of the game, from the opening snap. The play by play team kept saying how 'this kid just made alot of money today' all during the game. I know Mel Kiper had him listed as a top 5 senior QB going into the season....but had things broke the other way (with even one more loss) and NDSU misses that title game...the hype would be nothing compared to what it is. We wouldn't even be having this conversation. He would most likely still be a top 10 QB...but not in the conversation for #1. Just my opinion. I still like him over Goff, just based on his physical stature, work ethic and leadership qualities. Goff just looks like a weak twig to me.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nick
    replied
    Originally posted by macrammer View Post
    Ok....who here will be looking at the guy we did not draft to see how he is doing each week compared to our guy? I wish it was just one sure fired guy. Scares me to leave that to Fisher lol
    Probably, but you have to tell yourself, the second those picks have been made, the prospects have splintered off into their own paths completely separate from what they could have done with the other teams. The example I always think of is the Rams passing on DeSean Jackson to take Donnie Avery. Who's to say if DeSean Jackson becomes DeSean Jackson if he comes to the Rams and not the Eagles? Is Alex Smith an annual all-pro if he's the one who slips to Green Bay instead of Rodgers? There are so many variables that it makes the comparisons you naturally want to make almost impossible.

    Leave a comment:

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